Azerbaijani Strategy In Rapid War For Nagorno-Karabakh

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Azerbaijan launched a ”local anti-terrorist operation” in Nagorno-Karabakh the main goal of which is the destruction of the military infrastructure of the illegitimate regime in the region.

In a day, the authorities of the unrecognized Republic of Artsakh, abandoned by Yerevan, surrendered.  The parties reached an agreement on a complete cessation of hostilities through the mediation of the command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent.

The Azerbaijani operation began with massive strikes and artillery shelling on military infrastructure, air defense and electronic warfare systems. Some damage to civilian infrastructure was also reported.

The goal of the first stage was to destroy the main part of the rear positions and areas of concentration of the air defense of the Artsakh army.

Applying the experience of the 2020 conflict, Baku massively used drones, in particular, Israeli Harop kamikaze drones, as well as Turkish Bayraktar TB2, whose reputation has suffered significantly after their use by the Ukrainian army. In 2020, Azerbaijan for the first time used in combat Israeli-made LORA quasi-ballistic missile. Its deployment was also reported in the current conflict.

According to the Azerbaijani MoD, the first day of the military operation resulted in destruction of more than 20 combat vehicles, more than 40 artillery installations, more than 30 mortars, 2 anti-aircraft missile systems in Karabakh.

Amid strikes on the rear areas, the Azerbaijani troops launched ground operations in various directions.

Baku engaged significant ground forces for an offensive in the direction of key settlements, Shusha in the south-west, Martuni in the south-east, Getavan in the north-west and Aghdam in the west.

The greatest progress was achieved in the northeast, where they reportedly captured Charektar and Getavan. In the east, they took control of Agdam. According to unconfirmed reports, Agdere also came under Azerbaijani control.

The Azerbaijani military also reportedly seized the Kashen copper-molybdenum deposit, which was previously sold to the British Anglo Asian Mining company.

Baku has formed three large groupings of troops of up to an army corps each. They successfully applyed the ‘pincer’ tactics in order to cut off the Artsakh military from the supplies from the center as soon as possible.

As a result of the conflict in 2020, Azerbaijan also deployed its brigades on a permanent basis in the Kelbajar and Lachin regions. In the current escalation, they were aimed to block the main roads and to contain Artsakh forces in battles.

Amid the rapid advance of Azerbaijani troops, Stepanakert clearly understood its impotence to resist on its own. The Artsakh army has neither large stocks of weapons nor ways to supply them. Armenia refused to engage in hostilities but even in the event of a coup in Yerevan, and a decision to enter into the conflict, they had no more time to deploy the necessary forces.