Pakistan’s Ruling Politicians Seek To Consummate Their Dubious Power Grab: End Up Kicking a Hornet’s Nest

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Written by Daniel Edgar exclusively for South Front

The political situation in Pakistan has remained extremely hostile, bitter and unpredictable since the controversial no-confidence motion passed by the national parliament in April of 2022 to oust the government formed by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) under the leadership of Prime Minister Imran Khan. The volatile and unruly power struggle between the PTI, the  Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the  Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) exploded last week following the controversial arrest of PTI Chairman and former Prime Minister Imran Khan by a large and heavily armed squad of provincial paramilitary troops (pursuant to a legal order issued by the ‘National Accountability Bureau’ which is controlled, or at least heavily influenced, by Khan’s arch rivals and foes in the national government). The dramatic video footage of his arrest showed him being roughly bustled down an alley and shoved into a vehicle by the horde of heavily armed riot police, with witnesses later claiming that he was also clubbed and beaten during the detention, and there have been two assassination attempts against him in recent times. Enraged PTI members and supporters immediately poured onto the streets of cities and towns throughout the country to defend their ‘captain’ in massive demonstrations demanding his immediate release. Military and police installations became major concentration points for the protests, with many suspecting that while Sharif & co are running the show for the cameras, the heavyweights among the military and intelligence command are writing the script. Around ten people were killed during the ensuing nation-wide stand-off, several thousand were arrested, and numerous military and police installations were damaged, with some buildings and many vehicles being completely destroyed by fire during the protests (it remains hotly disputed whether, and if so how many, of the acts of violence and vandalism were deliberately planned and orchestrated by PTI members, whether some of the mass protests descended into violence spontaneously, or whether infiltrated agents and provocateurs may have been responsible in at least some instances). Although the nation has been given a short reprieve, with the Supreme Court ordering Imran Khan’s temporary release (at least until the 15^th of May, after which the government will probably try to have him arrested again), the dangerous all-out confrontation is set to continue and could explode again at any moment. It appears that those who have been accused of participating in, orchestrating, having knowledge of, or otherwise deemed to be connected to the acts of vandalism that occurred during the protests on the 9^th of May (among them, most of the PTI leadership) are to be tried in ad hoc ‘terrorist courts’ rather than by the judiciary, and the Interior Minister has stated that the PTI must be outlawed and shut down. Meanwhile, the PTI leadership also remains stubbornly determined to continue on the path of maximum confrontation, setting the stage for more massive and furious street demonstrations which could easily descend into chaos and violence once again. The nation may have just narrowly averted slipping into a prolonged bloodbath last week. If there is a repeat performance, they may not be so lucky next time.

Following the passing of the no confidence motion that ousted the PTI government last year, all of the major politrical factions have stubbornly pursued the path of maximum confrontation seeking to decisively defeat their rivals, adopting an ‘all-or-nothing’ approach to resolving the struggle for control over the national parliament and government (with the confrontation also affecting the provincial assemblies). The passage of the no-confidence motion by a narrow majority was made possible by a sudden wave of defections from among the PTI’s members of the Narional Assembly, and the equally sudden decision of the governing party’s ally in the parliament (Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, JUI) to abandon the coalition.

The unruly quest for power between the two bitterly opposed groups, which has long since passed beyond all constitutional bounds and limits, has again reached boiling point, after each side had repeatedly fueled and prolonged the simmering year-long political crisis, neither side showing the slightest willingness or inclination to try to negotiate in order to defuse the potentially explosive political stand-off and seek an orderly way out of the crisis.

One of the two main agglomerations of political factions and social sectors involved in the internecine political feud is based around the groups that support Imran Khan and  Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. The other agglomeration of political parties and allied interest groups and social sectors is made up of those supporting the political parties that ousted the PTI government and are currently governing the country, centred around the political dynasties of the PML-N (which is largely controlled by the Sharif clan) and the PPP (controlled by the Bhutto and Zardari clans), which between them have dominated Pakistani politics for much of the last 30 years, with the senior military and intelligence commanders constituting an omnipresent but largely invisible third force as power brokers, enablers and enforcers. The two ruling parties subsequently formed a coalition with the JUI called the ‘Pakistan Democratic Movement’ (PDM). In 2006 the two major political parties signed a ‘Charter of Democracy’ in which they pledged not to side with undemocratic forces in a bid to topple each other’s government. Maybe the agreement doesn’t apply to third parties.

After resigning en masse from the national parliament in protest against the manner in which the no confidence motion that deposed the government was carried out (alleging that the defecting PTI members had been bribed or blackmailed and – even more controversially – that the United States actively encouraged and assisted the preparations leading up to the regime change), the PTI has held rolling mass demonstration in major cities throughout the country determined to lay siege on the government. Among the main demands are that national elections be called immediately, and a comprehensive and impartial investigation of the evidence suggesting that the leadership of the PML-N and PPP may have staged a coup d’état with the active support and assistance of certain cliques within the country’s military and intelligence command and the United States. LINK1, LINK2, LINK3 

Recent Developments

In the aftermath of the widespread mayhem provoked by Imran Khan’s arrest, most of the PTI leadership has also been arrested, and the ‘caretaker Chief Minister’ (Mohsin Naqvi) of Punjab (the province, a PTI stronghold, is where the official residence of the regional corps commander that was burnt to the ground by an enraged mob is located) has announced it will form a hand-picked joint task force to investigate and prosecute all of the ‘miscreants’ involved in the protests and ensure a speedy and ‘exemplary’ punishment. The ‘trials’ are scheduled to take place in the ‘Anti Terrorist Court’. LINK

It is a safe bet that topping the round up list of ‘miscreants’ and ‘terrorists’ will be most if not all of the PTI leadership (those that haven’t already been summarily thrown in prison), as well as a large number of PTI members. LINK It it also not unreasonable to suppose that all the country’s law enforcement officials, investigators and intelligence agents will be so busy preparing for the thousands of cases against the PTI that there will be no time left to inquire into whether due process was followed and all legal and administrative requirements complied with during the elaborate preparations and machinations leading up to Imran Kahn’s arrest, the event that triggered the furious mass protests in the first place (as the plotters must have known would happen).

Moreover, the national government has announced that all those who have been accused of participating in, orchestrating, having knowledge of, or otherwise deemed to be connected to the acts of vandalism that occurred during the protests on the 9^th of May elsewhere throughout the country are also to be tried in ‘anti terrorist courts’ rather than by the judiciary, and the interior Minister has stated that the PTI must be outlawed and shut down. LINK1, LINK2

Cutting through the waffle and subterfuge of the flurry of official statements and proclamations, it seems that the governmnent is arranging for a rigged investigation and trial in a rigged court to eliminate their rivals in the PTI once and for all. To top it all off, the ‘Pakistan Democratic Movement’ has organized a ‘sit-in’ at the premises of the Supreme Court to try to intimidate the Court’s members so that they will not dare to interfere with the plot’s execution.

One of the main factors behind the decision to arrest Khan in such a hasty and opportunistic manner (he was captured in the premises of the Islamabad High Court while he was attending a hearing on an unrelated matter) is the fast approaching deadline for the convening of national elections, which most analysts agree will result in the PTI gaining a substantial majority in the National Assembly.

Always assuming that the elections are held, that they are conducted in an impartial, ‘free and fair’ manner, and that there are no tectonic shifts in public opinion in the meantime, which are by no means guaranteed.

Moreover, Khan’s persistent criticism of the military’s involvement in politics, including numerous public accusations claiming that some individual commanders have a personal vendetta against him, has not surprisingly contributed to the apparent decision of some powerful commanders to favour the ruling political parties (the PML-N and PPP) – or, at the least, to their growing antagonism against the PTI and Imran Khan. LINK1, LINK2

While denouncing the PTI for maliciously defaming the integrity of the State and its institutions (for claiming that certain military, intelligence and police commanders have been supporting the ruling parties and acting against the PTI, and that others are blocking or impeding the conduct of the investigations into the assassination attempts against Imran Khan), LINK1 major personalities from the ruling parties have petulantly railed against the Supreme Court after it held that Khan’s arrest was illegal, suggesting that the Chief Justice should resign from the bench and join the PTI. LINK2

Among their rambling tirades and complaints against the judiciary, the leaders of the acting government have claimed that the Supreme Court is blatantly favouring the PTI and Imran Khan, and victimising the political parties that currently control the govenment, following the Court’s decision that the amateurish and brutal ‘arrest’ of former PM Imran Khan by a group of poorly trained but heavily armed thugs employed by the Punjab Rangers (pursuant to an order issued by the ‘National Accountability Bureau’) was illegal and invalid, having failed to comply with due process and relevant legal requirements.

They have apparently already forgotten that it was an emergency sitting of the Supreme Court that intervened to prevent Imran Khan from dissolving the National Assembly prior to the  vote on the no confidence motion and calling national elections in order to let the people decide the fate of the internecine power struggle in the first place, as well as refusing to even perfunctorily investigate the allegations of a coup plot carried out by the opposition politcal parties by bribing members of the National Assembly to support the no confidence motion (possibly with organizational and logistical assistance from a hostile – or at best an extremely undiplomatic, constantly ‘meddling’ and always arrogant and overbearing – foreign power). While the information and evidence so far revealed to support the claims of a coup plot is patchy and circumstantial at best, if there is no investigation clearly no evidence will be found, and the more time that passes before an investigation is launched the more unlikely it is that it will be possible to ascertain whether there is any substance to the claims. In either case, with the political power brokers engaged in an unruly anything goes brawl where ongoing developments progress at breakneck speed and confusion reigns, the judiciary and formal constitutional rules and procedures are inevitably stretched to breaking point and every decision made by the judiciary to act, or to refrain from acting, will inevitably be controversial.

Coup Allegations and Suspicion of Covert Intelligence Operations

While they vehemently deny receiving any direct support from the US during their preparations in the lead up to the no confidence motion, the newly installed government lost no time in abruptly shifting some of the core priorities and objectives in terms of foreign policy and international relations, with the overall tenor of foreign policy substantially returning to the US/ UK orbit (though not entirely – relations with ‘all-weather friend’ China remain strong, and Pakistan has not joined NATO’s sanctions against Russia). The new political leadership has also valiantly returned to the IMF, begging bowl in hand, eager to return the country to the financial dictates of the West’s insatiable financial empire (‘austerity programs’ for the poor, deregulation and subsidies for ‘foreign investors’ from the US and London). Between them, the IMF and the tightly meshed agglomeration of banks and fund managers that own and operate most of the global financial sector and offshore markets bear an uncanny resemblance to the Royal Court and British East Company of yesteryear. LINK1, LINK2

The substantial improvement in relations between Pakistan and Iran (as well as other countries in the region LINK) during Khan’s tenure, a major geopolitical development which would have caused much chagrin in the US, has also been largely abandoned. It remains unclear whether the new government has permitted US military forces and contractors to deploy equipment (such as armed drones) and personnel to military bases or conduct operations in Pakistan’s territory, but it seems clear that they have granted the US Air Force (or USAF contractors) access to the country’s airspace, thereby providing convenient access for the US to spy on and launch missile strikes against Afghanistan (presumably gathering additional military and intelligence data while en route over Pakistan).

Of course, allegations of a coup d’etat are notoriously difficult to prove (or refute) with certainty. The allegations of a joint US/ UK coup d’état in Australia in 1975 to overthrow the then Prime Minister (Gough Whitlam) were universally ridiculed and dismissed as absud conspiracy theories by  the press at the time; only as the decades have passed have substiantial details emerged as to the various elements and roles of the respective intelligence agencies, media outlets, political personalities and State officials involved (the ‘star role’ being reserved for ‘our man’, the impeccable Crown servant and very CIA-friendly Governor-General at the time, John Kerr). LINK Even now it remains unclear how many of the Australian media agencies and journalists, opposition politicians, and military/ intelligence officials who played a part in some way were knowing collaborators in the meticulously orchestrated regime change operation, or whether they were simply willing or gullible dupes who were just following orders and knew not to ask questions.

The exceptional series of reports produced by Al Jazeera (‘The Lobby’) revealing some of the activities of Israeli Embassy employees involved in the cultivation and recruitment of contacts, sources, collaborators and agents among politicians and activists in the UK is informative, in the context of a routine day-to-day intelligence operation. LINK1 The reports provide rare confirmation that although good old-fashioned investigative journalism may be critically endangered, it is not yet extinct. LINK2

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It may simply be coincidence of course, but it is nonetheless noteworthy that there has been a spate of ‘audio leaks’ appearing in ‘social media’ and media outlets over the last couple of days featuring apparent excerpts taken from telecommunications intercepts of conversations between ‘PTI leaders’ and militants purporting to implicate them in various nefarious plots and prove the government’s allegations that they are all ‘miscreants’ and ‘terrorists’. LINK1, LINK2, LINK3 Is is also noteworthy that conversations in the leaked videos (whether taken by infiltrated agents or obtained by hacking phones and computers) are generally edited excerpts which in themselves are open to a variety of interpretations and insinuations while proving nothing, whereas the incriminating dialogues cited are usually from ‘audio leaks’ which presumably would be much more easily edited and altered. One could further note that there have been no such leaks purporting to reveal details of the conversations and activities from among the ruling parties’ leaders and militants.

Maybe certain military, intelligence and police officers should also resign, leave their colonial residences ensconced in their vast estates, and join the PML-N or the PPP (along with their entourages and servants, perhaps accompanied by the US ambassador and ‘political attaché’, the deputy director of USAID, and local representatives of the National Endowment for Democracy, Soros Foundation and Verint Communications)?

Nonetheless, it must be noted that the wanton destruction of public property is an extremely reckless and criminal act that serves no good purpose in any circumstances, and that in such incendiary and perilous times it could have provoked a large number of deaths. It should also be noted that the fact that more people were not killed in the ensuing violence and crackdown is very fortunate, and suggests that the military leadership as well as individual units of the armed forces are acutely aware that the country is poised on a razor’s edge and that great caution and prudence is paramount.

If it can be determined by way of a thorough and impartial investigation that certain people in the PTI deliberately adopted the course of action of destroying public property as a form of political protest (as opposed to simply organizing a protest action at some military installations, given that large protests are difficult if not possible to control, and are susceptible to infiltration by agents and provocateurs seeking to discredit the organizers and justify the use of disproportionate force to disperse the demonstration), this must of course have serious legal consequences for the individuals concerned. But such events cannot be used as a pretext to criminalize and detain the entire PTI leadership, as the acting government and the quasi-legal agencies of government subject to their direction and control are doing.

Political Dynasties and Corporate Empires

While they have generally preferred not to wield political power directly in recent times, the senior commanders of the country’s military and intelligence services still have a great deal of power and influence. As the numerous attacks by protestors against military and police installations throughout the country clearly demonstrated, many people consider the military leadership to be collaborators in, if not largely responsible for, the overthrow of the PTI government and the subsequent efforts to eliminate Imran Khan and the PTI from the political scene.

Among the other traditional ruling elites in Pakistan’s recent history, three families in particular have established extensive political dynasties and corporate empires, with the PML-N (centred around the Sharifs) and the PPP (centred around the Bhuttos and Zardaris) in effect serving as focal points and bastions for the consolidation of their considerable economic, political and bureaucratic power and fortune.

By way of comparison, these latter-age ruling dynasties probably have more in common with the oligarchs of Ukraine than Colombia or the United States, in the sense that they have thoroughly meshed and intertwined their respective financial/ corporate, political and bureaucratic sources of power and wealth. In Colombia and the United States, the richest of the oligarchs, while owning and controlling most of the major media outlets in the country, prefer to stay out of the limelight and maintain a discrete distance from politics, the traditional ruling political parties and the selection and appointment of senior bureaucrats (on the surface at least), though a substantial number of secondary oligarchs and pówer-brokers among the traditional or nouvea riche political and economic elites in Colombia have established Ukraine/ Pakistan type arrangements that thoroughly mesh their numerous political and economic activities in various cities and regions throughout the country.

Of course, the ‘Chinese walls’ that the richest oligarchs (known as ‘investment fund managers’, ‘entrepreneurs’ and ‘businessmen’ in the Western countries and their satellites, they don’t have oligarchs in the Free World) in Colombia and the United States have constructed between their economic and political activities do not prevent them from gaining lucrative State contracts and subsidies, privileged access to public lands and natural resources, and immunity from investigation into some of their more questionable dealings by State agencies or the media (which they just happen to own).

Lawfare and Political Persecution in a Two-Party State

The ruling political parties (PML-N and PPP) appear to be making maximum use of their control over the State apparatus (facilitated considerably by the resignation of the PTI from the National Assembly, which was in my opinion a serious strategic error that has contributed substantially to the subsequent extra-constitutional mayhem, recklessness and instability) to appoint close associates and accomplices to key posts and exercise close supervision over the operational management of key ‘independent’ law enforcement and accountability agencies and officers. While the timing may be purely coincidental, shortly after the installation of the new government the Federal Investigation Agency and National Accountability Bureau abandoned or anulled the numerous investigations against leading members of the governing parties involving allegations of corruption, fraud and abuse of power in business deals and other activities associated with their vast array of companies, offshore corporate fronts and financial accounts. LINK

Meanwhile, the anti-corruption and law enforcement agencies have also opened investigations into their political opponents in relation to a long list of allegations and accusations of all types (from fraud, abuse of power and theft of public assets to terrorism and inciting rebellion), many if not most of which seem highly dubious at best. While the PTI was in power the PML-N and PPP leadership claimed that the numerous investigations into their financial dealings and allegations of fraud and corruption constituted a politically-motivated campaign of legal persecution. They must realise, at least privately, that the spate of investigations against the PTI are open to the same charge and, moreover, that they could in themselves constitute an actionable  criminal offence (along with the sudden termination of the investigations into the members of the ruling parties) if due process is not diligently adhered to.

In this respect, the circumstances surrounding the piling up of the dozens of charges that have been filed against Imran Khan raise the question as to whether government (the leadership of the PML-N and PPP and their patrons) and State officials could be subject to investigation for charges related to, for example, the possible abuse of State powers and functions, contempt of court, and/ or perversion of the course of justice.

In the case of Imran Khan’s arrest, some relevant questions would include: Who participated in, or otherwise knew of, the decision to arrest the former PM? Was it a decision taken solely by ‘law enforcement’ personnel or were certain politicians (or military/ intelligence commanders) ‘in the loop’, or perhaps certain politicians were issung general or specific instructions to the relevant agencies? On what grounds and on the basis of what evidence was the decision to arrest Imran Khan taken? Were all relevant constitutional, legal and administrative rules, standards and procedures complied with throughout the investigation? Who decided that the Punjab Rangers would carry out the arrest order, and why? Did anyone inform the Punjab Rangers that Pakistani citizens have certain fundamental rights, even if they have been accused of committing a crime, and that they are not to break into the premises of the High Court like a bunch of hooligans, fascist pigs and mafia henchmen (I believe ‘miscreants’ and ‘terrorists’ are the politically correct terms in Pakistan) and that suspects are not to be merrily thrashed while they are being detained?

Perhaps similar questions could be asked of the investigations and extra-curricular activities of the ‘additional directors’ of the Federal Investigation Agency, or the Pakistan Telecommunications Authority (PTA) and its decision to shut down the Pakistani people’s access to the internet (while government politicians and police continued to twit away throughout the turmoil). LINK

The long succession of questionable developments related to the activities of the anti-corruption, law enforcement and investigative agences (both prior to and during the term of the current government) suggest the urgent need for a comprehensive review and overhaul of the existing structures and procedures, in terms of the appointment and dismissal of personnel, decision-making in relation to whether or not specific cases will be investigated (and providing detailed reasons for specific decisions relating to controversial cases or upon request from affected parties), and the prioritization and assignment of personnel to review specific cases.

While the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) appears to be firmly within the orbit of the ruling coalition parties, the  Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) has raised deep concern over “reports of random arrests and cases filed arbitrarily against PTI workers across Pakistan”, pointing out that a distinction must always be made between those resorting to violence and nonviolent political workers, and that no one should be punished and condemned solely on the basis of their party affiliations.

In Latin America the widespread use of law enforcement and investigative powers and functions to systematically spy on and pursue political opponents, while simultaneously preventing investigations into allegations of corruption or abuse of power committed by the ruling political parties and their associates, is known as ‘Lawfare’ (LINK); in the United States, the Republicans that currently have a majority in the House of Representatives of the National Congress have referred to what they are calling the Weaponization of Government, creating a Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government subject to the House Judiciary Committee in order to conduct hearings into controversial cases and what they claim has been political persecution waged by Federal law enforcement and investigative agencies subject to the influence of, direction by, or under the management of directors appointed by, the Democrats.

As noted in a recent South Front report, the most high profile of the alleged political persecution cases are of course the flurry of indictments against Donald Trump, mostly involving  allegations of misconduct that occurred thirty-odd years ago, a succession of ‘Monica Lewinsky’-type scandals whose main objective is to kill off his presidential campaign. The Republicans have responded by launching a series of hearings into the ‘Hunter Biden Laptop’, among other accusations levelled against major Democrat personalities. LINK

If the committee hearings in the Congress on ‘the weaponization of government’ could be ‘depoliticized’ somewhat (a contradiction in terms for a proceeding in the Congress, but if there were some way to include a sub-commission or two of non-partisan experts maybe there could be a way to provide for rational and informed investigation, debate and analysis insulated somewhat from the super-heated and emotionally charged political environment) and expanded to include ‘the weaponization of the media’ and ‘the weaponization of the economy’, with the ultimate objective of providing a rigorous analysis of key developments and making recommendations for a comprehensive set of institutional reforms (in particular so as to provide confidence in the conduct and results of the pending presidential and congressional elections), there might be some grounds for cautious optimism that the situation could improve. In this respect, a couple of recent reports from other outlets provide more detailed analysis of some of the points covered in the South Front article. LINK1, LINK2

Is there still room for National Dialogue and Impartial Investigation?

Apparently noone in Pakistan has dared propose a broad-based national dialogue with the objective of seeking a mutually acceptable negotiated solution to resolve the overlapping constitutional, political and economic crises that have the potential to tear the country apart if they are not resolved peacefully. Given the extent of the breakdown in constitutional procedures and the apparently irrevocable rupture of relations between the main political parties, factions and personalities involved, if there were to be such a national dialogue it would clearly need to include a diverse range of social sectors and groups beyond the official political power brokers and their patrons.

It is equally imperative that there be an opportunity for the conduct of independent and thorough investigations of the respective claims and accusations that are being recklessly thrown around. It is obvious that any investigation controlled or susceptible to the inluence of one side or the other in any way will be rejected by most people and cannot be expected to resolve the crisis.

In terms of financial and economic matters, another aspect that could be considered is a remarkable precedent from Ecuador, during the presidency of Rafael Correa, involving the conduct of a comprehensive audit of the largely odious and illegitimate public debt that successive corrupt and/ or incompetent governments had accumulated, leaving the country completely prostrated and destitute, which is to my knowledge the only time such a procedure has been carried out anywhere in the world. Probably two of the best sources of information and expertise in this regard are two non-government organizations, the Tax Justice Network and Campaign Against Third World Debt (CADTM). For a wealth of background information and context I would recommend a book written by Raymond Baker (‘Tax Havens – Capitalism’s Achilles heel’).

The last place I would go to for advice on these topics is the IMF, World Bank or OECD, which for many decades have arranged and supervised the accumulation of unproductive and unpayable debts by almost all of the poorest and ‘least developed’ (i.e., most heavily exploited, ransacked and plundered) countries in the ‘Third World’. The only way to explain their dogmatic insistence on imposing the same policies (which with few exceptions have been economically, socially and environmentally catastrophic for the countries involved) that makes any sense – namely, that the generation of unpayable debts that will keep the targetted countries weak and subservient – is the intention of the IMF policies and programs, and not an accidental consequence. A book written by John Perkins (Confessions of an Economic Hitman) is informative in this respect.

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