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On July 16th, the situation in Nagorno Karabakh, between Armenia and Azerbaijan appeared to have deteriorated further.
The Azerbaijani side made a worrisome threat, claiming that it was ready to strike Armenia’s nuclear power plant in response to hostilities along the border.
Colonel Vagif Dargyakhly, chief of the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan urged Armenia not to forget that the latest missile systems in the arsenal of the Azerbaijani army make it possible to hit the Metsamor NPP with high accuracy.
This was allegedly in response to rumors that Armenia could strike the Mingachevir reservoir. According to him, the reservoir was protected from being struck due to the specific terrain of where it is located, as well as its fortifications, as well as the modern air defense facilities.
On the night of July 16, Armenian forces again resumed attacks on Azerbaijani positions. Also, the villages of Dondar Gushchu, Agdam and Vahidli of the Tovuz region were shelled by mortars and other long-range weapons.
Reportedly, several Armenian civilian vehicles were struck by Azerbaijani UAVs, and there were no casualties.
One of the #Armenia|n civilian vehicles struck by #Azerbaijan|i UAV. Luckily, there are no casualties. pic.twitter.com/5EGaaZmwUR
— Alice Sharafyan (@sharafyan_a) July 16, 2020
At the same time, the Armenian side is also attempting to carry out UAV reconnaissance, by way of a Lockheed Martin X-55 Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft and it was reportedly downed.
The tactical UAV "X-55", attempted to carry out a reconnaissance flight over the positions of the units of #AzerbaijanArmy was immediately detected & destroyed thanks the vigilance of our units.#Armenia continues provocative actions and attack to??.#StopArmenianAggression pic.twitter.com/baGgnglZv0
— Ali Alizada ?? (@Ali_F_Alizada) July 16, 2020
Both sides actively blame the other of being the aggressor in the situation.
Armed forces of the aggressor state #Armenia continue to target the residential areas, civilian infrastructure in the villages of #Tovuz district of #Azerbaijan. This is the blatant violation of international humanitarian law! Don’t turn a blind eye to #ArmenianAgression! pic.twitter.com/Fdr5QrdShR
— Leyla Abdullayeva (@LAbdullayevaMFA) July 16, 2020
A UAV strike by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces hit a car an Armenian Ministry of Emergency situations car, and Minister Artsrun Hovhannisyan said there were casualties.
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The Armenian side published a video allegedly showing the Azerbaijani side transporting their killed servicemen.
Azerbaijani media reported that Nazim Afgan-oglu, the conscript of the Azerbaijani army, was buried.
He died on July 16th as a result of fighting in the Tovuz region of the Azerbaijani-Armenian border.
Active combat operations are being conducted in the direction of the Tovuz region of the Azerbaijani-Armenian state border.
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Azerbaijan has suffered a humiliating defeat and its Foreign Minister has just been sacked. Turkey is now pulling the Azerbaijan strings to bring it into its fold a and spread the neo-Erdogan Ottoman Empire back into Russian hinterland. So far Russia has been in a passive retreat against Turkish ambitions and belligerency.
Yeah yeah wait and see
Turkey will intervene in this conflict and in any case the Azeri military on paper at least is quite well armed and if they deploy all their assets they will wear down Armenia as thanks to OIL, Azerbaijan has deep pockets. Armenia should withdraw from Ngorno Karabakh or work out a deescalation as this will not end well. Take this to the bank, Putin will not do a fucking thing as it does not want to upset the status quo with Turkey in the Caucasus, mostly due to demographics.
Well said
Putin also is not particularily fond of Armenian current government and current social opinion that brought them to power.
I don’t think Turkey intervenes in this one. I interpret this threat of hitting reservoir or nuclear power plant as a cry for help or intervention from bigger countries to come and stop it, which so far they didn’t pay any attention to it.
In all the years of this conflict (starting right from 1988 and continued after independence/dissolution) Turkey didn’t cut it’s financial ties with Armenia. They talk the big talk for Azerbaijanis but so far didn’t walk the walk.
Right now, no one is intervening. Now, all that will be needed for a full blown war is a 3rd party to execute any of the threats.
Islam will return. You can die of hatred, but it’ll be revived
Turkey is hardly a Muslim state. Istanbul is the biggest prostitution, gambling and drinking city in the region.
you very wrong you stupid idiot go f*** yourself any gambling illegal in Turkey…
Visit the gay mardi gras in Hell Aviv :)
For guys like you only the Islamist jihadist Republic of Iran is Muslim enough.
GAS THE JEWS & EAT TURKEYS!
Turkey is not Europe. Periode.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b4cb1eccb549aa0574fab7a489a1ca0af18a40eeb623afb205b08d3783b86a5f.jpg
I dont think he will come. It has been 4 years since he died
Then why are you still fighting it?
Fighting who? Ex-president of Uzbekistan?
I can’t answer you cos your question is vague
Ex president of Uzbekistan. Islam Kerimov
Was Foreign Minister responsible for military operations?
No he was a weak cunt, and Aliyev is running the conflict and wanted a more aggressive stance. I believe the FM was in Mongolia when he got the text YOU ARE FIRED.
The foreign minister has been fired for not being in his office when a military clash erupted on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.
BAKU, July 16 — President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev has dismissed
the nation’s foreign minister over neglect of duty, according to the
presidential order published Thursday on the president’s official
website.
At a special virtual meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers on Wednesday,
Aliyev strongly criticized Elmar Mammadyarov, who had served as foreign
minister since 2004, for not being in his office when the military
clashes erupted on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, according to local
reports.
Guest used it in the same sentence so I thought maybe minister being fire is the proof of the claim that Azeris got defeated
So far it has been a limited conflict on the border, 21 Azeris and 4 Armenians dead, but if Azerbaijan mobilizes its bigger military and deploys Turkish drones,Armenia will suffer more casualties and its manpower pool like the Zionist cunts is very limited and can not sustain a long war. Also Armenian economy is dead broke.
Sounds fair enough. If a dam is hit to hit back at NPS. Both are critical infrastructures. And hit can be done on a control center, generator or turbine, where a fallout is unlikely. And Azerbaijan seem to have precision missiles with 5-7m accuracy. Important thing for both sides is to avoid radiation emission.
As an example from Russian military doctrine. If any country hits inside any target inside Russian territory even with conventional missiles, Russia can respond with nuclear strike. I find these cases analogical.
The same way Russia and USA, together, stoped the islamic state, they will do the same if Azerbaijani do that far and stupid… A broken Dam can kill civilians in just one strike in limited land. Nuclear are another story… ;)
I think you have completely different idea on geopolitics than the actual situation on the ground.
I just read today, here in my country, that ONU will act to stop it… ;)
so then azeris should know if they do that, armenia will hit the water tank they threatened, so best do nothing and stop fighting
When you say water tank, I assume you mean dam. That dam seems to be concrete with soil on top (based on the satelite image at least). You need a bunkerbuster for that, other missiles in Armenian possession is not enough. Reference Sorpe Dam with british attempt to penetrate with 5 tonne bombs in 1943.
yea they would probably do that then, attack it with a bunch of missiles
Armenia doesn’t have 5 tonne bombs, the most impact missile is Iskander and the uniqueness of the missile is precision not warhead impact. For such dams you need bunker busters. The Brits used Tallboy Bomb which is an “earthquake” effect bomb with 2500kg explosive power, while iskander has only half a tonne warhead.
1. You need either to flyover the target to through such 5tonne> bomb, not possible due to air defence of the opponent
2. You need intercontinental kind of missile to be able to lift such a warhead, not in possession of Armenia
3. Multiple small strikes on a target. Not effective. It is like a bullet proof glass, it doesn’t get penetrated by number of ammo on same spot. It gets penetrated if the caliber is high enough to penetrate. And the missiles in Armenia’s possession are not of “high caliber” (to put it simply) to penetrate such a dam.
Well if the Azeris do strike their nuclear plant hopefully russia gives armenia the means to strike back
From what I understood, Azeris mentioned the NPP as a deterrent to a potential dam strike. Hence saying that if you fire we will fire back kind of thing. So politically it will be a minus for Russia to react in this case.
Even if Russia will decide to provide something, the systems that we mentioned before are not easy to deliver. Russia is a member to ABM Treaty which means if Russia transfers any complex like Topol or Yars (if their cargo planes can in fact deliver it, no land communication with Armenia), it cannot be transfered to Armenian balance and if launched it will be clear that it is done by Russia, hence no need to transfer and could be launched from Russia itself. But it will be an act of agression by Russia, and I am not sure if it is worth it from the cost and benefit point of view. Even though the treaty is about limiting the missiles regarding the range, and in Azerbaijani Armenian issue range is not the issue, but the mentioned lift power makes it relevant as smaller missiles cannot lift that much.
Another option is to sell bunker buster which Russia does have and can be mounted on the new Su-30 that Armenia acquired, but for that they need to get close to the target. Iron Dome is used for the protection strategic objects while S300 is protecting the cities. Also not to forget that the level of involvement of Russia in the conflict would probable equal to Turkish involvement in the conflict. The reservoir if penetrated might damage vast agricultural areas, about 1.5million civilians living in the area, strategic pipelines for gas and oil (separate), which are strategically important to Turkey and EU. Hence if damaged, it would be fairly easy for Turkey to overhealm any Armenian (or Russian border guards, or base in Gyumri) defence and take over fairly quickly (note, not much phisical defences in Armenian west, political so far as Russian border guards are guarding armenian border with Turkey). But again all these scenarios will depend on how much Russia is prepared to be involved in this conflict. My personal opinion is that there is not much benefit for Russia to be involved as long as not done in retaliation to russian military assets in Armenia. And since azeris mentioned the strike as a responce to potential Mingachevir strike, I doubt azeris will strike first.
Well we will see, which side strikes first, I do like the su-30 bunker buster option, they could also bomb the Azeri capital if not the dam, and torki Has already said they support azeris, why shouldn’t russia protect its ally then?
If they bomb Azeri capital they need to use Iskander, which they technically can if Russia grants access to satelitte homing. As Armenia doesn’t have their own military satelites. But Azerbaijan has missiles in 70km vicinity from Armenian capital, again they have a deterrent for that.
Turkey supports Azerbaijan because they are strategic allies and plus there are no relations between Turkey and Armenia(political cultural or economical).
Russia takes more of a neutral position not openly defending Armenia because, Azerbaijan Trade with Russia is more or less same with Armenian trade with Russia. Both have significant diasporas in Russia (Armenian diaspora is more vocal though). But also while Kremlin is skeptical about Armenian new government and its drift to west (interestingly including closure of Metsamor Nuclear Plant in exchange for 5bln USD in energy investments) but at the same time being in same economic and military blocks. While Azerbaijan has more of non-alignment strategy which is more or less ok from Kremlin point of view.
Long story short: Turkey will lose nothing if they support Azerbaijan against Armenia.
Russia has things to lose in choosing any side, support Armenia and lose Azerbaijan to west, support Azerbaijan and lose Armenia to west, which is why they took a neutral stance to protect the status quo in ther mutual relationships.
Pure geopolitics.
But how is a concrete dam able to withstand a missile strike? I mean its not made of titanium or something
The foundation is concrete that holds the water pressure, and the soil on top is like a impact reduction (not built for that purpose but serves like it) in case of missile strike. Hence unless the missile penetrates the soil layer, and reaches the foundation made of concrete, the water pressure will not get through the dam. To penetrate the soil bunker buster is needed.
How dumb is that…,?
They will cover themselves in radiation as well.
Tards…
Not necessary to target the reactor itself. Many parts can be targeted that can force the plant to stop without emissions
They only thing you could target are the cooling towers.
But even than its very risky if they collapse they could rupture both the secondary and primary cooling loops which will result in radiation release and a possible melt down.
cooling tower would lead to overheat of the reactor. I would say nothing from input to the reactor. But output would be easy. Generator or turbine would do the deed.
That was not a serious treat, it could mean a full invasion in Russia of Azerbaidjan and the world will barely say anything.
World needs its alternative oil and gas source. You expect too much justice from world
I believe that if anyone hits a nuclear plant that would be serious consequences, especially for a small country. Ohh.. that neighbours a superpower.
you are entitled to your opinion
Just need one shot, and all the world take move and all mans on power in Azerbaijan will face prison for war crime… Chernobil and Fukushima was accidents…. And they are not forgivable.
Hitting with meaning??? Now after threat any hit will be seen with meaning.
LOL They will not be that dumb. ;)
I prefer to avoid saying “will do this” “will do that”. Not a fortuneteller and don’t know the future. Populistic view works sometimes, but nor entirely based on logic or calculated prediction. But feel welcome to present your geoplitical calculations.
I read today on the paper that ONU are already moving about it.. ;)
who is ONU?
First: Attacking a dam is a war crime. Second: Isnt Armenia very cozy with Israhell ?
As Armenia is now basically a Washington whorehouse state, are they going to ask Pompeo to shield them by sticking his big fat belly and butt in the way of any incoming Azerbaijan fire?
Why Putin hasn’t thrown them (Armenia) out of CSTO is a mystery.
They are not going to do that…seems to be blustering..No one is that stupid.
This is a proxy war between China and the US..
That war will start heating up soon enough it seems.