Ecuador: South American Country Faces A Two Dimensional Storm

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Written by Simon Ndiritu

Ecuador has been gripped by protests since in 2019 in response government’s austerity measures; the protests have escalated over the last weeks leading to the president declaring the state of emergency. In 2019, the government rolled back fuel subsidies that had been in place for 40 years and introduced tax and labor reforms citing fall in international oil prices which had adversely affected the oil producing economy. Consequently, Diesel and Gasoline prices increased by 200% and 30%, respectively paralyzing transport. As a response, protestors marched across the streets breaking the military cordon and accessing the parliament. Over time, indigenous groups joined the protests against austerity measures. Several cycles of these protests have occurred since 2019, the last starting recently and featuring strong participation of Indigenous groups. On June 13, 2022, indigenous leaders lead protests characterized by burning tires and blocking roads. Afterwards, indigenous group leaders have been arrested and detained and released but the protest and violence increases.

Brief Economic Background

The Ecuadorian economy is highly dependent on commodities export. Agricultural products constitutes 47% while oil represent 36% of these commodities. Therefore, it is sensitive to fluctuation in commodities and oil prices. Economic challenges have plagued the country for several decades and are driven or worsened by low oil prices. However, these challenges have expanded since 2019 under new realities such as low prices and Covid-19 containment measures among others since 2019. As early as March of 1999, the Washington Post revealed that the country was facing hard economic times as inflation had averaged 50%. In response, the government had announced tax hikes that resulted in a nationwide strike. The recovery process was slow. During the global economic crisis of 2008-2009, the economy contracted by 1.3%. The period between 2009 and 2019 saw some relative stability but the situation has worsened since 2019 due to policy and structural issues but the government was quick to blame everything on falling oil prices.

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2019 Protests and Riots

In October of 2019, the then Ecuadorian president Lenin Moreno announced a set of austerity measures arguing that worsening economic conditions had been occasioned by a fall in oil prices. The president, in a televised speech, announced a slew of subsidy rollbacks and taxes to raise $1.4 billion and take $2.4 billion IMF loans. This prompted protests which began when Unions of operators in transport businesses (taxis, buses, and trucks) organized protests and blockaded roads. Later, mass protests gripped the country and became often violent pitting protesters against police. Police used pepper spray, teargas, and sound bombs in attempts to disperse protesters while protestors hurled stones. Various cycles of protests and riots have occurred since.

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The Indigenous Dimension

The protests have progressively morphed and are now spearheaded by indigenous groups under the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE).  For context, this group had been linked to the ouster of presidents between 1997 and 2005, which means that the current president must be taking it very seriously. On June 13 2022, it was reported that indigenous actively participated in protests and blocked Highways in at least 10 of 24 provinces including the home to the Capital. They demanded review of Gasoline Prices and reversal of government’s economic policies some of which included increase in oil production proposed by President Guillermo Lasso among 10 other demands. At one point, CONAIE’s leader Leonidas Iza described the protestor’s course of action as “resistance”.

We have had to resort to resistance in view of the national government putting in place more and more policies of death, which don’t allow us to sustain our small economies,

Such a statement and the expanding protests could have lead the right-wing president to take firmer actions including arresting Iza. For instance, after Iza’s statement terming their action as resistance, he was arrested. Protests intensified including demands for his release. Days afterward, the leader was released and issued a defiant statement declaring that he and the protesters remained unbowed in front of enthusiastic demonstrators. After Iza’s release (June 15), he declared that the protests would continue until the government responded to their demands.

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Mr. President, respond to the people on the most urgent, necessary, and painful issues,”

On 18^th June, the president declared the state of emergency in three provinces gripped by the protests. President Guillermo Lasso stated that the state of emergency was designed to “defend the capital”. At the same time, the president made some concessions such as increasing the value of government bond held by the poor and launching a program for easing the loans held by the poorest from state-owned banks. Earlier, he had met with leaders of indigenous groups to urge them to take actions that could reduce the current tension but in vain.  In addition, despite the government’s efforts including the state of emergency, the protests have intensified. By 24 June 2022, the protests had expanded across major cities and several main streets remained blocked. Indigenous groups claimed that it was hard to get by and could not let up until the president took action to improve their living conditions. In addition, violence during protests have been increasing such that 18 policemen were reported missing after an altercation with protestors. It is unclear why the government has not rolled back the austerity measures it justified by the then low oil prices now that oil prices have reached historical highs.  

In addition to the existing riots over deteriorating economy, the country was reeling from effects of another State of emergency imposed in April. On April 30, it was reported that the state had announced a state of emergency and deployed additional police and military in Guayas, Manabi, and Esmeraldas regions to curb increasing murders and gang-related crimes. In is also crucial to note that another state of emergency had been declared in November 2021 showing how the security situation remains volatile.

Apathy by Perennial Meddlers (?)

Violence has been noted during these protests and both the government and protestors traded blame. The Human right watch group, a pro-West group has claimed that the first round of these protests that began in 2019 was mired by violence while police used excessive force.  Surprisingly, these protests have managed to stay away from the mainstream media limelight. Also, external interests in the protests are not apparent. No group has been labeled as “pro-democracy”. Even Antony Blinken declined to take sides as can be seen in this Aljazeera article.

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