After a recent series of unsuccessful advances south of Tripoli, the Libyan National Army (LNA) has reshaped its offensive operations deliverying a special attention to the area southeast of the capital.
LNA units captured the village of Zatarnah from forces loyal to the Government of National Accord (GNA) and cintinued their advance further in the northeastern direction. The goal of this effort is to cut off the road between Tripoli and the city of Misrata.
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Finally.. This should have been the logical move from the very start. If they can cut of the supply route, than they made it..
Not true, there can still be a seaborne route or aerial route misrata-Tripoli but they would need the assistance of a foreign power US, italy or France because Haftar has stronger navy, artillery and Air Force there was reports of Italy delivering weapons via plane, as well as traditional smuggling through Tunisia and maybe even LNA selling weapons given to them to GNA for financial gain. Isolating the capital will be a start but imposing a strict siege is difficult in a fluid conflict
Yes don’t forget the GNA militia are being defended right now by Qatar and Turkey (Muslim Brotherhood) plus Italy and British – ALL have air, sea or ground troops in theater and may strike LNA if Misrata itself comes under direct attack.
I added turkey but later deleted due to internal issues, Erdogan is more concerned internally with elections and with neighboring Kurds then ex ottoman lands, there has been multiple reports of arms shipments between Libya- turkey, mainly intercepted by the Greeks. But it has not been clear who had direction the weapons are going since many Libya weapons have wound up in Syria and Vice versa. The Libya mufti called on mujahideen to return from turkey but Idlib theater is still semi active. Turkey could intervene as in north Cyprus but there is little support. Qatar is a paper tiger they can fill the gna’s coffers and help with propaganda aka Al Jazeera but offers little physical support. The physical support given by Egypt primaries and uae to the lna I believe is the biggest influence. If Egypt were to put troops on the ground it would end the conflict.
Thank you for informative opinion – agree 100 % except don’t forget that Qatari air force and SF were heavily involved (admittedly as add-ons to French Op Harmattan) in full co-ordination with NATO in 2011. Agree that without French support Qatar cannot operate their Mirages this time around. As for Turks, well we’ll see, but they have invaded and occupy all of north Syria west of Euphrates without blow-back, maybe sending troops to defend Misrata would be too much even for them ? Regardless, like Syria and Yemen Libya is becoming a free-for-all live combat/training area where, it seems, foreign forces can engage overtly or covertly without consequences and minimal to zero casualties. The big picture politics are beyond my understanding, just cannot grasp why EU/NATO/US keep stoking conflict and backing the wrong side !
Agree with your first sentence, not the second. Long way to go yet.
People who know Libya are saying that Hafta is known to be a corrupt old man with no close ties to any of the tribes in the South or West , he’s not a Muslim and in no way has any intention to deliver the Social benefits Muammar Gadaffi did.
But Libya is war weary and the Brotherhood has taken a sever blow by trusting the West exactly the same as Gadaffi did.
Haftar’s LNA “is” the West, that’s the difference, and Putin would be also, if the West would have him.
Which they never will praise be to Allah.
Any move that prevents the sub Saharan savages to cross the Mediterranean is good. Anything. On the other hand one can not prevent the brainwashed and cultured fatigues west to commit mass cultural and biological suicide.
Exactly – cannot understand why Italy supports the GNA mafia who run the people traffic boats to Italy !
Of course it is not Italian people that support GNA, just the stooges in the government.
Tripoli is controlled by the Misrati mafia militia – it’s a simple protection racket run by the Sarraj/GNA regime imposed by UN and supported by Turkey, Qatar, Italy, Germany and Britain who supply weapons and maintain bases in Misrata and liaison/spotter forces on the ground in Tripoli. Tripoli can be invested from the ground but the air and sea routes from Misrata cannot be cut – this means the Misratis and Misrata city/airport/seaport can be re-inforced and resupplied by the foreigners. See this link explaining the mafia set-up in Tripoli :
http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/about-us/highlights/2018/highlight-sana-bp-tripoli.html
Interesting that the co-author Wolfram Lacher (yes you are a laugh mate ! ) is now screaming for Western “intervention “to bomb the LNA, and the other co-author Idrissi has gone silent.
Meanwhile Italy, which has over 600 troops in Libya mainly within Misrata and Zawia still backs the GNA regime, despite these very same militia gangsters being the slave traders and people traffickers sending over 600 000 Africans to Italy from 2012-2018 ! Italy take note : This is not a rerun of Ain Zara 1911 more like Sciaria Sciatt. Omar Mukhtar will haunt your dreams. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/44cc382ac48fec2efbd275f16081235e77e01aeb0743ff3a700ea62d16d3da38.jpg
The EU will be paying a huge price for neglecting Libya. There are no understanding of the situation in Libya. Libyans have scarified for their freedom but some regional countries want a different future for Libya. France, UAE, are the evil in Libyans’ eyes. Libya will determine its allies and will relinquish from agreements doesn’t need any more. The player in the horizon is Turkey, they share values and interests. Time will tell.
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