Fighting along the Ukrainian front remains intense, but its character is changing. Russian forces are pushing deeper in the north. The Ukrainian command is spending its reserves on an autumn counteroffensive in the east. Each choice carries a price.
In the Sumy sector, assault units of the Russian “North” grouping are advancing into Ukrainian territory through heavy fighting. The Ukrainian command has grown more active in the forest north of the city and keeps trying to infiltrate the Russian rear. None of this has changed the situation in a radical way. On November 10, Russian troops took the village of Nikolske, only 13 kilometers from the regional capital.
It remains unclear whether Russian command will widen the breakthrough and commit more reserves. The activity here may be only a supporting effort. The main blow could come in the next few days from the north, through Pysarivka.
Heavy fighting continues on every axis of the Kharkiv front. Russian assault groups probe for weak points, and Ukrainian units counterattack regularly. The condition of those units, however, is often dismal. The 151st Separate Mechanized Brigade is a telling example. Months ago, it was pulled back to Chuhuiv to recover losses after the “Bear’s Corner” operation. On arrival, it faced mass desertion and illnesses contracted at the front, many of them fatal, according to reports.
The largest Ukrainian effort of the autumn is under way on the Lyman axis. Kyiv has achieved some success there. Russian troops were forced to fall back to the east, giving up a suburb of Lyman and its northern outskirts. The front has since stabilized along the Zherebets River.
The same is true of the sector as a whole. Ukrainian infiltration deep into Russian positions does not mean the defense has collapsed. Even encircled units receive support from strike drones outside the pocket, and ammunition and food are increasingly delivered by air. Strongpoints can therefore hold for a long time, tying down additional Ukrainian forces.
The operation looks different at the operational level. The Russian command had planned to use Lyman as the northern claw of an encirclement of Slavyansk, one of the central objectives of the war. Ukrainian attacks have pushed the front roughly ten kilometers east, delaying that plan.
The gain, however, carries high risk. A force that spends too much in offense may have too little left for defense. If that happens, the front could give way not in one place, but in several at once.
Ukraine has bought time at Lyman and paid for it in strength. Russia is advancing slowly toward Sumy and waiting for the counteroffensive to burn out. In this kind of war, the side that runs low on reserves first rarely gets to choose where it breaks.
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