Talks between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine are under way in Abu Dhabi. The two-day meeting brings together delegations with an unusual mix of diplomats and intelligence officials. Few expect a breakthrough, but the format itself says something about where the process is heading.
The American team is led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Moscow’s delegation is headed by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, with broad participation from the Defense Ministry, the FSB, and the Foreign Ministry. Ukraine is represented by Rustem Umerov, identified in reports as head of the foreign intelligence service. Notably, the head of Russia’s military intelligence is also part of the Russian group. Such a lineup suggests that contacts between the two countries at the level of the special services are likely to continue.
Some light on the character of the talks came from Washington. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that security guarantees for Ukraine must be acceptable to Russia. “Obviously, it has to be something that Russia will also agree to, so that it works,” he said. He added that Washington has not yet agreed on a final version of the guarantees.
That is a notable shift. Earlier, the American position was tougher and assumed concessions almost exclusively from Moscow. Now Washington appears to be adjusting to realities on the ground, including the very low chance of Ukraine recovering some of its lost territory. President Donald Trump pointed the same way in an interview on November 9. Peace in Ukraine will come soon, he said, and Ukraine’s borders will “change a little.”
Even so, dramatic results should not be expected. Neither side has reached its political or military goals. Ukraine has suffered severe damage to its critical infrastructure and faces a difficult front, yet it still has the strength to resist. That reserve is not unlimited, but there is no sign it will run out tomorrow.
Russia, for its part, has adapted to heavy sanctions and kept its economy functioning. That has allowed it to expand military production, especially cheap, mass-produced drones and cruise missiles. Unlike Kyiv, Moscow can recruit through contracts and large payments rather than through forced mobilization.
Smaller steps are more realistic. Humanitarian initiatives by First Lady Melania Trump may continue. Faster prisoner exchanges and the return of displaced people could also become part of future understandings. A full end to the fighting, however, is unlikely at this stage.
Both capitals are coming to Abu Dhabi to talk, not to finish the war. Each still believes time is on its side, and each is partly right. Until that belief fades, the negotiators will trade small gestures while the strikes continue.
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