The past weekend was particularly brutal for the Ukrainian military, which suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment. On June 27, Russian forces destroyed two Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 fighter jets at the Voznesensk airfield in the Mykolaiv Region. One aircraft was parked in front of a reinforced concrete shelter and was fully loaded with air-delivered munitions. The second aircraft was inside a hardened hangar being refueled from a tanker truck. The attack also destroyed a fuel tanker and a support vehicle and killed the flight and ground crew who had arrived to prepare the planes for a mission. Separately, Ukrainian forces acknowledged the loss of another MiG-29, which was downed in Poltava Region overnight on Saturday. The pilot reportedly ejected.
On the ground, fighting across the front lines remains intense. In the Dnipropetrovsk Region, the operational situation for Ukrainian forces continues to deteriorate daily. On June 28, forward units of the Russian “East” force seized control of the village of Pysantsi. This development has brought the encirclement of Pokrovske, a significant regional hub, into sharp relief. Russian troops may have already begun infiltrating the urban outskirts from Dobropasove, where their forward positions press almost directly against the city’s edge. As the fall of Seversk demonstrated, if so, the city’s defenses could collapse within days.
In the Zaporizhzhia Region, the front line is becoming fluid again. On June 28, the Russian 38th Brigade took control of the village of Novoselovka. It is likely that the Russian command will now focus its efforts on advancing toward the villages of Egorivka and Omelnyk. If that advance succeeds, the situation in Orekhov will deteriorate sharply.
Tensions around the Kinburn Peninsula have been escalating for several days, following claims that Ukrainian units seized the area. In reality, the episode amounted to little more than an information operation involving a few flags dropped by drones. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian command’s focus on this sector is not without strategic logic.
Conditions for a potential amphibious operation are present, as evidenced by increased activity of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces’ “South” unit near Ochakiv. This unit had previously been deployed north of Kherson for an extended period. Drone activity of various types in the area has also remained elevated since mid-spring.
The Russian command opted to get ahead of the threat and strike first. Geran-2 drones operating in autonomous homing mode hit Ukraine’s Southern Special Operations Center training camp in the Prybuzke settlement in Mykolaiv Region. A series of precision strikes targeted personnel assembly points and storage facilities housing specialized watercraft, including rigid inflatable boats and unmanned surface vessels. The probability of follow-on strikes against similar Ukrainian special operations assets remains high.
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