Eastern Overlord: Why Air Power Failed and Ground Invasion Looms in Iran

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Washington’s lack of a clear Plan B in the war with Iran has left the US in a strategic deadlock. Nearly three weeks of attacks on Iranian military targets and the elimination of the political leadership have not yielded the desired result. The hope that mass protests would follow the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has not materialized. Iranian citizens, including those sympathetic to the opposition, have seen that the Western world is bringing them not freedom and democracy but bombs to their homes. This has rallied the people around their national leaders.

U.S. stockpiles of anti-missile weapons and ammunition in the Persian Gulf region are dwindling rapidly. Global public discontent over the oil crisis is growing. Washington risks losing a significant portion of its allies, especially among the Arab monarchies of the Gulf, due to a loss of trust. Given these unfavorable conditions, it appears that the U.S. administration has made its choice. That choice is to launch a ground operation.

Overestimated Strength

U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly declared a complete victory over Iran nine times. Meanwhile, tankers, ports, and oil refineries continue to burn in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. currently has no way to extricate itself from the conflict without suffering reputational damage. Trump has turned down the Nobel Peace Prize, which he had recently been eager to receive. Arab allies in the region are pressuring the White House as they suffer colossal financial losses. Trump’s refusal to answer journalists’ questions concretely reveals his confusion.

Iran’s resistance shows that the country has been preparing for the current conflict for years. Hundreds of underground bases, warehouses, and bunkers have been dug throughout the country. Allies may lack the sufficient number of special anti-bunker bombs, such as the GBU-57, to destroy all targets. According to open sources, very few of these weapons were produced. Deliveries amounted to only a few dozen units per year.

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The Allies’ stockpiles of air defense missiles are also running low. According to news reports, on March 12, U.S. forces began redeploying Patriot and THAAD air defense systems to the Middle East. As a result, Seoul is now unable to fully defend itself against an aerial threat from North Korea. On March 16, Greece announced it would transfer 25% of its Patriot missiles to Qatar. Additionally, the U.S. is conducting a continuous airlift to deliver additional anti-missile systems.

Despite the dramatic footage of the destruction of the Iranian Navy and Air Force, Tehran still has the capability to inflict retaliatory damage. This is evidenced by the redeployment of aircraft carrier strike groups away from the conflict zone. The U.S. Navy’s nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, moved from 350 km away from the Iranian coast to near Oman, over 1,100 km away. Another American aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, has moved to the southern part of the Red Sea, near the Saudi Arabian coastline in Jeddah. This indicates a real threat from Iranian unmanned boats, for which the Americans have no countermeasure.

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The conflict continues, the costs are rising, and military objectives remain far from being achieved. The United States is faced with a difficult choice: seek reconciliation with Iran or escalate the war in the hope that Tehran will eventually run out of strength to resist. Iranian leaders have stated that they will only agree to peace if Washington meets conditions that are impossible to fulfill: the complete withdrawal of American forces from the region and payment of reparations. The United States has never experienced such humiliation and is unlikely to agree to it. This leaves only one option: escalation. The current war shows that, no matter how dominant one is in the air, control of the territory requires the presence of one’s own soldiers on the ground.

Eastern Overlord

If Washington has chosen the path of escalation, then its top priority must be to establish control over the Persian Gulf. Destroying coastal ports and military bases would reduce the likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz being mined or of unmanned boats being used. To accomplish this, forward bases must be established on the coastal islands of Khark, Kish, and Qeshm, as well as in the cities of Bandar Abbas and Bushehr. The Pentagon’s buildup of ground forces suggests that a ground operation is almost inevitable.

The U.S. Navy’s 31st Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) has deployed from Japan to the Middle East. The USS Tripoli and the amphibious assault ships USS San Diego and USS New Orleans have departed from their homeport. The ships are carrying the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, which consists of 2,200 service members, as well as 20 F-35B fighter jets, MV-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft, and attack and transport helicopters. The group is expected to arrive in late March, as the transit will take about two weeks. Another 1–2 weeks will be needed to form the combined task force and establish communications and coordination with other forces. The image below shows a typical composition of an ARG.

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Furthermore, some of the airborne forces have been placed on high alert. The U.S. Army’s 82nd Airborne Division is undergoing a major restructuring due to the crisis in the Middle East and is on high alert. It is one of the first U.S. Army units to be reorganized under the new doctrine. The reorganization of the division’s standard brigades into Mobile Brigade Combat Teams (MBCTs) strikes a balance between rapid deployment and firepower, making the 82nd Airborne Division a key asset in modern conflicts.

In preparation for large-scale combat and multi-domain operations (LCSO and MDO), the U.S. Army is transitioning infantry brigades (IBCTs) to MBCTs. MBCTs are significantly more compact than traditional IBCTs because they have a smaller “footprint,” which makes them harder to detect and easier to maneuver on the battlefield. Such a brigade has a total strength of approximately 1,900 personnel, significantly fewer than the 4,500 personnel in an infantry brigade.

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Key characteristics of the MBCT:

Mobility: The active use of ISV (Infantry Fighting Vehicle) vehicles for the rapid deployment of troops across the battlefield.

Reconnaissance: The presence of a Multifunctional Reconnaissance Company (MFRC) at the brigade level and Multirole Companies (MPC) at the battalion level. These companies are equipped with commercially available small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), electronic warfare systems, and anti-tank weapons.

The 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Mobile Brigades of the 82nd Airborne Division have been reorganized under a new structure. A potential combat deployment in Iran would provide an opportunity to test the effectiveness of the ongoing reforms and identify any shortcomings that need to be corrected. In the Iranian theater, the mobile brigades are considered primary forces for capturing airfields and ports. The division’s sudden cancellation of command post exercises indicates that command and control structures are preparing for a possible redeployment of Mobile Brigade Combat Teams (MBCTs) to the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility. Their high degree of autonomy is critical in this area due to the challenging terrain.

Day I

It is unlikely that a whole carrier strike group would enter the Persian Gulf. The U.S. military would not expose its ships to such danger. Therefore, the primary objective of the initial phase of the operation may be to capture Qeshm Island and the city of Bandar Abbas. By doing so, the Americans plan to suppress Iranian resistance at the narrowest point of the Strait of Hormuz. To maximize the element of surprise, the landing will most likely occur at night with the use of aircraft and small, high-speed boats.

Simultaneously, the 82nd Airborne Division could launch an airborne assault on Khark Island near Bushehr. Depending on the number of forces deployed, it could target both the island and the city at once. This would create two points of tension on the Iranian coast and destroy hidden underground military bases simultaneously. The big question is how long this will take. Furthermore, U.S. forces could fall into a trap if they fail to account for several important factors.

In the context of modern warfare, landing on a small island is an extremely risky operation. At the start of the Ukrainian conflict, for example, the Russian army overestimated its capabilities and landed its garrison on Zmeiny Island in the Black Sea. Soon after, Ukrainian drones destroyed a significant portion of the equipment, and the troops had to be withdrawn from the island, suffering casualties.

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The current conflict with Iran reveals that, although American analysts have drawn conclusions from the conflict in Ukraine, the military leadership has not yet done so. Clearly, the U.S. severely underestimates the effectiveness of FPV drones. Despite its colossal defense budget, even the Pentagon has yet to develop an effective means of countering this type of weapon. These drones can easily fly into shelters at U.S. military bases in Iraq and cause significant damage.

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Iran may be waiting for the ground phase of the operation to begin. Landing American troops in restricted areas would allow for more concentrated artillery and drone fire. Direct combat clashes cannot be ruled out, which would result in U.S. casualties. This would have an additional effect on American society: discontent would grow, and Trump’s approval ratings would fall further.

An important component of Iran’s defense forces is the Basij, a popular militia. An enemy landing could prompt the local population to support their armed forces. Moreover, we are already seeing examples of people rallying together in the face of aerial threats. The presence of an enemy nearby will spark a desire for revenge among some citizens.

Tehran will also be able to play its trump card, which it has not yet used: It has a swarm of small missile boats and vessels, some of which are suicide craft. Judging by videos posted online, there are plenty of them. Furthermore, Iran has relied heavily on this concept for a long time and has been developing it. If these boats are deployed and manage to sink even one large American ship, the effect will be like a bomb going off.

Iranian forces will most likely try to wear down the American landing force. The allies’ air superiority will prevent the Iranians from operating in large formations. Therefore, they will prioritize small fire teams that can deliver rapid firepower and then withdraw.

If the initial phase of the American amphibious operation is not successful, the likelihood of failure increases exponentially. In any case, there will be a need to evacuate the dead and wounded. The U.S. relies on its aviation component, specifically helicopters, for this purpose. Experience from the Ukrainian conflict shows that FPV drones are an extremely effective means of attacking both ground and low-flying aerial targets. Consequently, even without man-portable air defense systems, the Iranians will be able to destroy aircraft from a distance.

Thus, if the U.S. military fails to break Iranian resistance during the first phase of the operation (within 24 hours) and establish a security zone around the bridgeheads, the operation risks ending in failure. During the current conflict, the Iranian side has not deployed any short-range weapons. This means the landing force risks encountering heavy fire, which will sooner or later lead to casualties. Even if the Americans manage to establish a foothold in the forward areas, Iran retains numerical superiority and can keep sending in fresh reinforcements. The appearance of an enemy on Iranian territory could further unite the country’s population and motivate them to fight. Even if the current regime is overthrown, Iran could become a second Afghanistan for the U.S.

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