2 Million Wanted, 20,000 Flee Monthly: The Numbers Behind Ukraine’s Mobilization Collapse

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In the current reality, any careless trip outside could be a Ukrainian man’s last in civilian life. The hunt for recruits continues unabated. Forcible abductions, public beatings, extortion, and torture in recruitment center dungeons have become commonplace. The Verkhovna Rada has stated that approximately 2 million draft dodgers are wanted, and nearly all of them must be apprehended and sent to the frontlines.

The front line requires new reinforcements every day to continue fighting. During the off-season operational pause, especially now, the Ukrainian command will do its utmost to replenish the units that have been battered in battle. When the summer campaign begins, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will need to demonstrate some degree of success on the battlefield. This is necessary, first and foremost, as a report to the Ukrainian conflict’s foreign sponsors. This means that the restored brigades and regiments will face new personnel losses. The depleted units will, of course, be replenished with forcibly mobilized men.

Dangerous symptoms

The Ukrainian mobilization system is facing many challenges. It is ineffective and does not provide the army with enough recruits. Kyiv is trying its best to solve this problem. Reforms planned for March aim to improve the efficiency of the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TRCs) and tighten the screws on draft dodgers. Similar measures to those used against alimony defaulters and debtors are likely to be implemented, such as freezing accounts and seizing property.

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One of the key problems for the Ukrainian authorities is desertion. Statistics show that most deserters flee before being sent to the front lines. Among those already sent to the combat zone, the desertion rate drops sharply to an average of 10%. This is due to blocking detachments that return deserters. If 20,000 to 30,000 people are forcibly mobilized per month, up to 20,000 of them immediately flee, while the rest join the Armed Forces of Ukraine. While there is a real influx of soldiers into the Ukrainian army, it appears that it barely covers the losses, if it covers them at all. In other words, the Ukrainian army has now reached a plateau and cannot increase its numbers using existing methods. At best, it can only maintain them. At the same time, the quality of the army is declining—a problem that everyone knows about but few talk about because it is difficult to measure.

This can indirectly be seen in the increase in the average age of obituaries and missing persons reports. After the initiative was transferred to the Russian Armed Forces, the Ukrainian army realized that many of their losses were still missing because it was difficult to evacuate bodies due to the large kill zones and slow retreat. Initially, the ratio of obituaries to missing persons was 3 to 1. In June 2022, for instance, there were 1,500 obituaries and 500 missing persons in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Now, the ratio has reversed; in June 2025, there were 1,300 obituaries and nearly 3,500 missing persons. According to obituaries, the average age of those killed is 38.6 years, while for missing persons it is 39.9 years.

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Ukraine has significant problems with its remaining mobilization resources. It is estimated that Ukrainian authorities can mobilize 3 to 3.5 million people, but 2 million of them are already enlisted. These figures have been confirmed by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Forced mobilization is one of the tools used to replenish the Ukrainian army, and Ukrainian deputies said society has no way of avoiding it. These are only the official statistics. In reality, the situation may differ greatly from the published information.

Attempts to survive

Accumulated fatigue from the current situation is forcing potential conscripts to take risks. Some have not left their homes in a long time to avoid being caught. The more active ones are trying to leave the country via the Carpathian Mountains to flee to Romania. There, they can receive political asylum and protection from being deported back to their homeland. There are also some very radical cases.

To flee forced mobilization, a Ukrainian man flew to Romania on a motorized hang glider. The 31-year-old was detained in the Suceava district for illegally crossing the border. He was taken to the border police headquarters in Vicov de Sus for further investigation. Criminal proceedings have been initiated against him for illegally crossing the border and operating an aircraft without the proper documentation. It is reported that he flew about 40 kilometers.

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Surprisingly, the actions of Territorial Recruitment Center employees do more to shape Ukrainian civil society than official authorities do. There are an increasing number of cases of people helping each other rescue individuals from abduction. In Odessa, for example, a street food vendor hid a young passerby from a TRC raid. Thus, the young man’s life was saved.

According to Ukrainian Telegram channels, police officers and the TRC tried to restrain the Ukrainian man. At some point, he stopped breathing, and attempts to revive him were unsuccessful—he died of heart disease. This occurred in front of his wife. A second similar case was recorded in the Kyiv region. During his arrest, the man became ill and lost consciousness. After that, his pulse stopped. Despite this, the recruiters did not call an ambulance but instead took the body away in an unknown direction.

Lawlessness and violent actions by the military are increasingly prompting Ukrainian citizens to engage in direct resistance. In Volyn, for example, a group of civilians chased TRC employees transporting a conscript. One of the civilians cut off the minibus, sending it into a ditch. The conscript was ultimately rescued, and a military registration office employee suffered a head injury.

Such trends are a serious wake-up call for Ukrainian society. As the authorities have decided to tighten mobilization measures, recruiters will soon have more power. There is already discussion about providing combat weapons to TRC employees. This will undoubtedly result in more incidents involving shooting and deaths or injuries among men trying to avoid conscription.

So far, large groups of people have been able to resist when the TRCs are outnumbered. This is clearly seen in the video below. In it, an angry crowd forcibly throws a group of recruiters off a bus, preventing them from mobilizing several young men.

Public discontent has been expressed through unusual flash mobs. There has been a sharp increase in attacks on recruitment centers and their vehicles in the Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk regions of Ukraine. Angry citizens have organized to overturn minibuses belonging to recruiters.

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Thus, current trends in Ukraine will lead to an increase in social tension in the long term. Society is already exhibiting signs that could escalate into mass unrest. The inhumane treatment of recruits, deaths during detention, and similar incidents undermine trust in the state.

Society cannot ignore these threats. Consequently, people are organizing and clashing with the TRC. At the same time, providing combat weapons to recruits may have the opposite effect that the Ukrainian authorities expect. Due to the war, the number of combat weapons stolen from the front lines has significantly increased in society. This means that, in the long term, TRC employees may become targets.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

• The Invisible War Within: Why Violence Against TRC Staff is Growing in Ukraine
• There’s More Than Meets The Eye: The TRC-Criminal Nexus – A Dual Threat To Ukrainian Civilians
• The Cost of Mobilization: Deaths Behind the Walls of TRCs and Rising Public Anger in Ukraine