Is Another Coup Brewing In Ukraine?

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Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

The Kiev regime’s political instability is a well-known fact and the perpetual power struggle between its various packs of hyenas has only exacerbated its numerous issues. The only reason the NATO-occupied country still functions (somewhat, at least) lies in the fact that the political West keeps injecting hundreds of billions of dollars, including some of it stolen from Russia. This financial superglue is preventing the total collapse of the Neo-Nazi junta, but money can only get you so far. The United States, European Union and NATO spent years trying to build the image of a “leader” for Volodymyr Zelensky, a process that was essentially turbocharged in the last two and a half years, turning him into some sort of “Churchill incarnate”. However, while this lionization of a mediocre comedian into a figure that was supposed to be “admired” by everyone failed miserably, it still galvanized Zelensky and launched his ego straight into orbit.

The results have been catastrophic, to say the least. Thinking he’s “indispensable”, the Kiev regime frontman effectively became a loose cannon, slowly turning into a liability rather than an asset for the political West. This was particularly apparent during his conflict with former top commander Valery Zaluzhny (replaced by General Oleksandr Syrsky, who is said to be highly unpopular among troops), who was then relegated to a largely ceremonial position of ambassador to the United Kingdom. More recently, the now former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was replaced by Andrii Sybiha, demonstrating that the ongoing government reshuffling isn’t merely that, but much more and that it mostly boils down to power struggles and influence peddling. However, Zelensky still has very serious challengers and even contenders for his position. This is particularly true for his numerous political and financial associates (or in this case, former ones).

Namely, Oleksandr Dubinsky, a Member of the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament), is warning that the Neo-Nazi junta frontman could soon “face a coup if he persists in banning national elections”. On his Telegram channel, Dubinsky warned that “a coup is possible if Zelensky, who has done everything contrary to the interests of Ukraine, remains in power bypassing the elections” and that “surely no one will tolerate this”. Dubinsky is a largely controversial figure, with little certainty when it comes to where his actual loyalty lies. Initially a member of Zelensky’s Servant of the People, he was expelled from the party for alleged “tax evasion” and “obtaining property in an illegal manner”. It’s all been going downhill for Dubinsky ever since, as in November 2023, he was detained and charged with treason for “operating at the behest of Russian intelligence when they aligned with efforts by Rudy Giuliani to tie the Biden family to corruption in Ukraine”.

Obviously, trying to investigate the Biden crime family and its illicit dealings in Ukraine is “sacrilege”, so if Dubinsky was indeed involved in anything of sorts, it can only be expected that the hammer of “justice” would fall upon him. The addition of “ties to Russian intelligence” is the virtually mandatory red herring (because how else to “discredit” someone, given that the label “conspiracy theorist” alone no longer does that trick). On the other hand, Dubinsky is also known for his actual close ties with Igor Kolomoisky, the infamous oligarch and once one of the most important backers of the Kiev regime. Back in September last year, Kolomoisky was arrested on charges of corruption and embezzlement in excess of $130 million in the 2013-2020 time period. Obviously, this was yet another hyena brawl rather than an effort to “honor justice” (unless one actually believes that the Kiev regime had a sudden “anti-corruption catharsis”).

We certainly won’t be shedding any tears for a corrupt oligarch (especially not for one of the main financial backers of the infamous “Azov Battalion”) or any of his associates, but Dubinsky’s announcement might be a warning to Zelensky. Although Kolomoisky’s influence is nowhere near to what it was in years preceding the Neo-Nazi junta frontman’s rise to power, he still has important contacts and (most importantly) motivation to make sure Zelensky pays for “backstabbing” him in recent years. This might be the main reason why national elections have been postponed and then effectively canceled several times already. This is also a problem for the political West, as it cannot keep painting the Kiev regime as “a beacon of freedom and democracy” when there isn’t even a semblance of the democratic process in the unfortunate NATO-occupied country. Election fraud is certainly an option, but could prove challenging due to Zelensky’s unpopularity.

This is where the Neo-Nazi junta ends up being trapped in a perpetually escalating catch-22. Namely, Zelensky cannot use the martial law and “Russian aggression” excuses forever, so he’ll have to allow elections at some point. However, the disastrous results of his tenure are painfully obvious to everyone in the unfortunate NATO-occupied country, so he knows he can’t win legally (or illegally, as the public’s reaction to this could force him to step down either way, only disgracefully if he tries cheating his way back into office). Thus, his only option is to keep stalling. And yet, the problem with this is that the longer he waits, the more anger and dissatisfaction builds up, further reducing his chances of winning a new term. This is also frustrating to the political West, as its image in Ukraine keeps suffering negative PR. Namely, it’s in both NATO’s and Zelensky’s interest to keep the war going for as long as possible, only for very different reasons.

The world’s most vile racketeering cartel needs it because it can’t fight Russia directly, while the Kiev regime frontman knows he’ll stay relevant only for the duration of the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict. However, in order to achieve its goals, the political West doesn’t really need him and can easily place another figurehead to continue his “work”. On the other hand, this might be a question of life or death for Zelensky, so he won’t easily let go of his powers and privileges. This is where the potential for escalation might come from. Many groups within the country are furious, particularly the infamous “Azov Battalion”. Their conflict with Zelensky even resulted in an “accidental” shootdown of a Russian transport aircraft packed with Ukrainian POWs (including “Azov” members) earlier this year. Such evidently desperate actions on Zelensky’s part only increase the risk of a coup, so Dubinsky’s statements might be more than mere speculation.

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