Zelensky’s Strategy. Kiev Is Betting On Dragging Out Negotiations

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Vladimir Zelensky’s visit to the White House showed that he had learned from his previous unsuccessful visit to Washington. The Ukrainian leader chose to avoid direct confrontation with Donald Trump in front of the cameras. The European leaders who arrived in the US capital to support Zelensky also avoided a confrontational tone. Their statements to the press seemed rather vague and meaningless. Based on these statements, one might conclude that all parties want a peaceful settlement and that there has been “incredible progress” in the negotiations. Yet we still do not see any concrete achievements. It’s clear that the Ukrainian president won’t make any concessions to the Kremlin. This means that the war will continue — through Kiev’s fault.

There is no doubt that Donald Trump intends to end the war in Ukraine. Vladimir Zelensky is equally certain in his desire to continue the fighting, contrary to the position of the US presidential administration. It is likely that Kiev has come to understand the inevitability of the U.S. withdrawal from the war. Now, the Ukrainians must prolong this process for as long as possible. As long as America formally supports Ukraine, Kiev can beg for weapons and ammunition. Supplies will not be as generous as they were under Joe Biden, but Europe has agreed to pay for American weapons for Ukraine’s Armed Forces. Zelensky’s office also hopes for a deterioration in relations between Moscow and Washington.

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During a White House meeting, journalists asked Vladimir Zelensky if he was willing to concede territory to Russia. He did not give a clear answer. The vagueness of the response suggests that Kiev is deliberately avoiding specifics. At a press conference after the Washington summit, the Ukrainian president said the territorial issue could only be resolved during a personal meeting with the Russian president. This statement lacks a solid basis. The Kremlin has repeatedly stated that it is only willing to meet with the head of the Kiev regime to sign final agreements. Territorial demarcation can be carried out by joint Russian-Ukrainian commissions. Zelensky needs to negotiate with Putin to achieve a result similar to what we saw in the Oval Office on February 28, 2025.

Zelensky’s words about the scale of Ukraine’s territorial losses are noteworthy. “I was able to show a lot on the map: who controls which territories — not just hearsay, but reality,” he said. It is doubtful that American intelligence lacks data on the actual territorial control in Ukraine. Ukrainian president was trying to justify his refusal to withdraw troops from the part of Donbass under his control. According to Kiev, exchanging one-third of the former Donetsk region for parts of the Kharkov, Nikolaev, and Dnepropetrovsk regions is not equivalent. However, Zelensky’s entourage should be satisfied that the Russian leadership is prepared to make such concessions.

Ukraine’s defeat in the war is inevitable. Despite continued American supplies, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to retreat. Monitoring resources associated with Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate admit that the Russian Armed Forces achieved their fastest advance of the year in July. The Russian army took control of 564 square kilometers. For comparison, they took 192 square kilometers in February, 133 in March, and 177 in April. It should be noted that these figures are underestimated. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine rarely acknowledges the loss of settlements and prefers to remain silent about retreats. Monitoring resources associated with the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense downplay the advance of Russian troops.

Julian Röpke, a German Bild journalist who supports Kiev, claims that Russia will gain the upper hand in the coming months. We can expect the fall of five major cities at once: Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), Dimitrovgrad (Mirnograd), Seversk, Konstantinovka, and Kupyansk. This would allow Russia to begin the final phase of the operation in Donbass, which is to establish control over Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. After overcoming the line of large agglomerations in the Donetsk region, Russian troops will be able to advance into operational space. Beyond Dobropolye, which has also been breached by Russian forces, it should be noted that the Ukrainians have virtually no serious fortifications.

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Paradoxically, prolonging the fighting benefits Russia and harms Ukraine. But Ukrainian interests are not synonymous with those of Vladimir Zelensky. The current president can maintain some legitimacy in wartime. After surrendering Ukrainian territories, his approval rating will plummet. However that is not the main point. There may be an aggressive reaction from influential nationalist forces and a network of public organizations associated with George Soros. Zelensky is more concerned about losing the loyalty of the aforementioned political forces within Ukraine than he is about demographic losses, the surrender of more territory, or losing the US as an ally.

The head of the Kiev regime is betting on prolonging the negotiation process. In order to quickly end the war, he simply needs to accept the conditions agreed upon by the presidents of Russia and the United States. He needs to withdraw the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic. Yet Zelensky is trying with all his might to divert the discussion and start endless bargaining over territories. As we have seen in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Bosnian War, bargaining over land usually only leads to continued hostilities. This will be the case this time as well. The consequences for Ukraine, Europe, and the world as a whole rest entirely on Vladimir Zelensky’s shoulders.

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