War With Poland: The Next Step?South Front

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Preface

When I started this article, I didn’t know exactly where it would take me. I had to read up on WWI, the Treaty of Versailles, the history of Eastern Europe, WWII and much more— a lot of history. I found that most that I had learned in high school and college — or was supposed to have learned (since I skipped most of my classes) was wrong. Here I am at 76, soon 77 educating myself—again.

Written by Julian Macfarlane, Tokyo based investigative journalist, author, geopolitical and defense analyst

MICIMATT

There are many places to start another war—but Europe is still a good market for those profit most from it — Ray McGovern’s “MICIMATT” — the American Military Industrial Media Academic Think Tank Complex. So what I called the Deep State Cartel in my last article is hard at work feeding its ever-hungry illegitimate progeny.

Every dollar in “aid” makes an American millionaire more …um…millionish and billionaires more billionairy.

The Invention of Poland

Poland was invented at the end of WWI, largely by Woodrow Wilson, who made it one of his famous “14 Points”.

The Polish Lithuanian Empire which was dismembered in 1789 by Prussia Russia and the Habsburgs had never been “Poland” — much less “Polish” —since it comprised a huge range of ethnicities.

The idea of “Poland” —like the idea of many other nations states—only appeared in the mid / late 19th Century.

Woodrow Wilson sought to create a patchwork of national states in Eastern Europe to prevent Germany and the Habsburg Empire from rising again—and as a bulwark against the “Reds” in Russia. He did so without regard for historic ethnic and cultural differences and as a result made WWII almost inevitable.

The first chief of state (1918~1922) of the newly created Poland was Józef Piłsudski who loathed the Russians.

Never trust a man with as weird mustache

During WWI he had fought with the Germans against the Russians—until he was thrown into prison for not being sufficiently pro-German.

The defeat of Germany and the Russian Revolution represented opportunity: he dreamed of uniting Poland, Lithuanian and the Ukraine in a new Polish Commonwealth which would “Polonize” eastern Europe.

Winning a decisive battle against the Red Army, Piłsudski forced Russia to give him much of Western Ukraine, as well as chunks of Lithuania and Belarus, which became the “Eastern Districts of Poland.

Putin has written authoritatively on Poland and the Ukraine.

“In the 20-30s of the last century, in the so-called Eastern Districts of Poland – and this is the territory of Western Ukraine, Western Belarus and part of Lithuania – there was a strict Polonization and assimilation of local residents; there was a suppression of national cultures, Orthodoxy. I would also like to remind you how such an aggressive policy ended for Poland as a result.

Pilsudski began as a believer in parliamentary democracy, but by 1923, he turned against it.

Poland is a wonderful nation, but the people are fuckers.

Józef Piłsudski

He never again took the position of chief of state but rather as Minister of Defense, ruling from the shadows. Like the US today, Poland had democratic institutions but was not a democracy, rather a quasi-fascist state which ruled the Eastern Districts with an iron hand. Ukrainians, Russians, and Jews suffered.

What goes round’, comes round’.

Woodrow Wilson’s map of Eastern Europe was taken down at Munich, with national boundaries being redrawn to reflect ethnicity.

The Poles had cooperated in the dismemberment of Czechoslovaka, taking those areas with Polish minorities. while the Germans got the Sudetenland.

Then Hitler wanted to negotiate with the Poles to regain Danzig which was German.

Churchill and the French had other ideas since they figured that together they were strong enough to win a war against the uppity Germans — indeed, could have, if they had attacked during the “Phony War” while the Germans were still tied down securing Poland and they had the advantage of numbers.

The “Allies” (our side are always “allies”) didn’t care about the Jews: they didn’t like them much more than the Germans and the Poles liked them, which was not at all.

Jews then were like today’s Palestinians, who are of course semitic. Antisemitism thrives.

In other words, Churchill’s war was not about principles or people— but rather empire.

The Brits and the French thought that war with Hitler would be a remake of WWI. It wasn’t. The Maginot Line didn’t make a difference. Nor did the numerical superiority of the “Allied” armies.

1939 Redux

Now, another declining empire — the US’s— is doing it again. Encouraging the Polish government to do militarily stupid things— just as in WWII.

The US faces the prospect of a Russian victory in Ukraine—certainly in “Eastern Ukraine” including Kharkov by Christmas.

At that point, AFU forces will be diminished enough and Russian forces strong enough that the Russians can take the rest of the country right to the Polish border, including Volynia and Lviv and Eastern Galicia in between borscht and vodka.

If they want, that is.

The Russians have been going slow. They have their reasons—which the Western media represents as weakness, which it is certainly not, but instead a sign of strength.

On the one hand, the Russians view this war as a “fraternal” conflict — very much a civil war. And they are right. There are Russian speaking Ukrainians and Ukrainian speaking Ukrainians. But Russian and Ukrainian are Slavic dialectics which enjoy 86% commonality, Ukrainian and Russian are more mutually intelligible than some dialects of Japanese or Chinese — or even English or the average conversation between husband and wife — and definitely any conversation between parents and children.

In many respects, Ukrainian Ukrainians and Russian Ukrainians are more akin than many of the ethnicities that enthusiastically support the Russian Federation. Take a look at the video at the end of this article.

Another reason the Russians are holding back is, of course, the sheer ethnic, cultural and social diversity of the RF, where consensus is hard-won. The Russians love to argue. Putin is the Unifier that US Presidents all pretend to be— but never are. And a long war continually demonstrates in blood and bone that the integrity and independence of Russia’s many cultures can only be protected by coming together as one.

The biggest reason for the slow-motion war, however, is that the US and the “West” has demonstrated its quasi-racist hatred of Russian culture over many decades, if not centuries, time and time again. Russia now knows its existence is at peril. It knows the face of its enemy and that, in a global age, this is a global war. It is outnumbered. It has to be careful.

By Christmas this year, however, the Russians will be able to take on the US and NATO if they have to. But most likely it would want to delay that until Putin is re-elected in March 2024 and before the US Presidential elections in 2024.

Russia has some leeway in this respect because the SMO has demonstrated a level of military competence with which the “West” cannot compete, despite superiority in numbers. The West therefore does not want a real shooting war.

If it came to bang & boom time, Russian victory would give the US a national stroke, tottering as it is on political legs as infirm as Joe’s —like an old man locked in narratives that recall a happier past that never really was.

Even without a Russian victory, Biden— the Great Divider—could very well lose and Trump win, which might lead to some blue states using the event as an excuse to secede— notably California. The reverse could lead to Red States seceding also. The domino effect could also lead to the breakup of Canada. North America is becoming mess.

Europe is already a mess.

You don’t have writing on the wall. You have a neon sign.

If there is a future at all, it is as a multipolar world — EurAsia, BRICS, and the Global South rising.

The Back to the Future Scenario

Poland is a warning.

Looking forward, the country is important because it illustrates the inability to of the US to learn from the past — or from the present — or to consider consequences in the future. For the West it is the new “frontline”. The US is a five-year-old with his/ her hand stuck in the candy jar, which sadly never contained candy.

The US, the UK, and their NATO buddies hark back-to-back to the 20s when the Soviets were forced to cede Volnyia, Lviv and Eastern Galicia to Poland. When Western Ukraine folds, the “allies” want to expand NATO’s presence in Western Ukraine in the Western-most oblasts of the Ukraine.

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It is soooo hard for that kid to get his hand out of the jar partly because he is tryoing to get candy out of it that doesn’t exist.

That is , the US wants the Poles to move their border and therefore NATO eastward, as far as they can.

In 1939, the Polish forces were large —but not large enough— and nowhere as well equipped as the Germans: they counted on British and French help – which didn’t come. Today, the Poles have a fairly large army — but again, not enough to compete with the Russians.

Confidence? Because of the 100 or so Wagnerites on their border, dreaming of Polish sausage, Poles want to add a few hundred thousand to that army.

That implies an understanding that the rest of NATO won’t get involved. A Polish invasion of Ukraine would not trigger Article 5. So, you can forget Germany compelled to rush its dwindling tank force to the frontlines. In any case, even if they wanted to fight — NATO— and the US — don’t have ammo.

This is not the 1920s. Poland is not facing a fledgling Soviet Union weakened by the Civil war and foreign predations, including British, French, American and Japanese armies.

As I have suggested, the fatal error of the US and the UK is always seeking to travel back to the past to preserve the present—without actually knowing what the past was—confusing mythology with history. Marty McFly had more sense.

The Mechanisms of National Delusion

One mark of fascism — the politics of power — in any of its numerous forms from German Nazism to British imperialism to the inverted totalitarianism of “Americanism” is the need for political mythologies that to provide context and direction for control of the Many by the Few and to determine present and future.

The “past” has to be properly presented mythically to achieve that. That’s the role of Hollywood, as well as the media and our schools. Willing suspension of both belief and disbelief —and all reason.

As a result, the US and NATO are encouraging the local Polish mythology of the Golden Age of Poland — the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth which at its greatest extent dominated Europe from the Baltics to the Black Sea. But that was the 15th Century, long before a notion of “Poland” as a nation existed.

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The Brits love Empire. The French do, too. The Americans, of course. And the Poles. It’s nice to feel superior to others, which is the imperial thing.

The Poles have been big supporters of Western Ukraine so far. They host upwards of 1.5 million refugees. Polish mercenaries have been fighting and dying in the Ukraine.

But suddenly this….

Poland’s right-wing dominated parliament on Friday (22 July) recognised as “genocide” a massacre of 100,000 Poles by Ukrainian nationalists seven decades ago, in a move that quickly drew criticism from Kyiv.

“The victims of the crime committed in the 1940s by Ukrainian nationalists were not duly commemorated, and the mass murder was not defined as genocide in accordance with the historical truth,” said a resolution adopted by 432 lawmakers in the 460-seat parliament.

Are Ukrainians murderers? If so, what about all the Ukrainains, Jews, and Russians the Poles killed?

Is the War Over?

Make a grave for the unknown soldier

Nestled in your hollow shoulder

The unknown soldier

The Doors. The Unknown Soldier.

No. The war aint over, even if the soldiers are unknown.

But things have changed— as it now appears that Western Ukraine may cease to exist. Suddenly we have a dangerous vacuum, whicb the US loves as much as Nature abhors it.

It is quite clear that Warsaw thinks that Western Ukraine really belongs to Poland and may once again.

It does not say so openly; nor does the US say anything to support such an idea, but sucking sound you hear is reason disappearing into the void.

With Western Ukraine losing, Poland could send forces across the border pretending to be “peacekeepers”, ensuring “security” —but setting up a presence as occupiers — and never leaving. Western Ukraine would then belong to Poland de facto just as Israel thinks the WestBank de facto belongs to it. with Palestinians allowed to stay if they are quiet and provide cheap labor. That will be the role of Ukrainians. Happy untermenschen.

But…. if Western Ukraine collapses— then Russia and Poland are neighbors.

Putin and Russia will not allow the Poles go take over and move closer.

I cannot but comment on what has just been said [by Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergey Naryshkin] and on the press reports that have appeared about plans to create a so-called Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian unit. We’re not talking here about some motley crew of mercenaries – there are enough of them there [in Ukraine] already, and they are being destroyed – but rather about a regular, well-oiled, well-equipped military formation that is planned to be used for operations on the territory of Ukraine,

“In particular [this is being done] purportedly for ensuring the security of contemporary western Ukraine, but in fact – if you call things by their proper names – for the subsequent occupation of these territories. After all, the future outlook is obvious; if Polish units enter Lvov, for example, or some other territories in Ukraine, then they will be staying put there. And they will remain there for good,”.

Russia will never allow an anti-Russian, NATO country to extend its territory closer to Russia. That’s one of those famous red lines, one of the things Russia began the SMO to prevent.

One thing is certain: Poland does not have the military might to challenge Russia. Nor does NATO. This is not 1990.

On the other hand, the US and UK want to keep the idea of this kind of border imbroglio alive because the American War Industry needs the US to help it clear its inventory of weapons and keep the money flowing. The US will therefore encourage the Poles.

Just the threat of war is a money-maker. And not just for the weapons makers. Peace may not come from the barrel of a gun, but money does.

MICIMATT welfare programs

You won’t see forgiveness of student debt any time soon. Nor public health insurance. Nor repair of decaying bridges and roads. Nor a lot of things. That’s because MICIMATT hogs resources — and return nothing but decline and death—they are the world’s fattest, ugliest, laziest Welfare Kings & Queens

They represent what John Boyd called a “closed system” – and can only be maintained by an uninterrupted flow of money.

For the Pentagon —more bases and more weapons. More the military industrial companies, bigger profits. For the media, more public attention and bigger salaries for brain-wiped “journalists”. For academics and thinks more cash to give talks and interviews.

Who pays? European people. The rest of the world. The US taxpayer. Nature. YOU!

No, the Poles will not invade Ukraine, even as “peacekeepers”—which no one would believe — except the NYT and WaPo and CNN—who genuflect ever so nicely. If the Western Ukrainians invite them in, they will, as Putin says, most definitely not leave. They will be under the ground.

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In addition, I am sure that there must be at least one intelligent person somewhere in the Deep State— maybe the Janitor — who understands that if Poland can try to take Western Ukraine, Germany can try to take Western Poland. Then there is Hungary and Romania who would want to regain chunks of territory. All the national boundaries decided in 1945 in Eastern Europe would be in question.

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Putin has referred to this possibility in recent speeches. In addition, he has said that the Russians are not afraid to confront NATO and the US directly if need be. Right now, that is not necessary. NATO and the US have diminished their stocks of ammunition and don’t have the resources now to fight a war longer than two weeks anyway.

In any case, if a Russian-NATO war is to happen—ending the 21st Century’s Phony War— it must likely wait until Putin is re-elected in March 2024.