US Seeks To Replicate The “Israel Model” With Ukraine, Warns Former Obama Official

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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher

In an article published in The American Conservative magazine, analyst James W. Carden, a US Defense Department official in the administration of the previous Democratic president, argues that handing a blank check to a country is a dangerous decision, as demonstrated by Israel’s recent attacks on Gaza.

According to James W. Carden, the new aid that Washington seeks to send to Kiev is intended not only to calm the dissatisfaction of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, for having put his country’s entry into NATO on indefinite hold but also has a more dangerous objective: to direct the Eastern European country towards “permanent U.S. dependence.”

This path of subordination to Washington has a name and a history, says Barack Obama’s former official, which does not bode well. Carden refers to it as the “Israel Model,” which means that “Washington will, in the absence of a formal treaty of alliance, provide significant financial and economic support, military aid, intelligence sharing and diplomatic support for Ukraine in return for virtually nothing.”

Carden explains,

“The point of such a policy is to find a way to bind Washington and its European allies to Ukraine outside of the confines of NATO.”

However, the American analyst points out, considering the dramatic escalation of Israeli attacks against the civilian population of Gaza, this policy needs, at a minimum, to be the subject of vigorous debate since the Israel Model has not had positive results.

“The model—that of a permanent flow of financial aid combined with diplomatic cover for even the most egregious violations of international law and human rights—has proven to be deeply problematic. So why would one recommend it as a kind of sister-policy for Ukraine? The answer, glib, but no less true because of it, is that in Washington nothing succeeds like failure,” stressed the former Pentagon official.

The analyst warns that this unconditional support from Washington to Tel Aviv has encouraged successive Israeli governments to implement anarchic and counterproductive policies, such as the illegal 16-year blockade against the 2.3 million inhabitants of Gaza. Therefore, Carden fears that a similar blank check for Kiev will result in a tragedy to the detriment of Ukrainians and the rest of the world, especially given Zelensky’s authoritarian behaviour since money from Washington began to flow.

However, he does not mention that a tragedy has already unfolded in Ukraine. According to the EU’s Joint Coordination Center, Ukraine had a population of 41 million in 2021, but today, it hovers at around 35 million, and experts warn it could drop further to under 29 million in the next 30 years.

The demographic crisis will naturally also prevent Ukraine from making a speedy post-war economic recovery. According to the Center for Economic Strategy, an annual GDP decline between 2.7%- 6.9% can be expected if Ukraine loses between 1.3-3.3 million of its citizens.

The demographic and economic crises are exactly what will lead to Carden’s warning of Ukraine coming under “permanent U.S. dependence,” which is especially evident after mocking the idea that “the Zelensky regime,” as he terms it, is a “frontline democracy.” Confirming this fact, he points out that seven opposition media channels have been closed, eleven opposition political parties were banned by the end of March 2022, and the Ukrainian intelligence service SBU has launched a list of foreign enemies of Ukraine called Myrotvorets (Peacemaker) which includes the names of American citizens.

“The other problem is that, over time, the necessary distinction between the client’s interests and those of the patron diminishes to a point to where it becomes—as it has in the case with Israel—scandalous to even suggest that the interests of Washington and Jerusalem may not always and everywhere be in lock step,” the former Obama official added.

For all these reasons, the analyst argues, the way forward regarding the Ukrainian conflict is on the negotiating table since the “Israel model should be treated as a cautionary tale rather than as a kind of panacea, or worse, as a runner-up prize for failing to get the nod to join NATO. The last thing we should wish for Ukraine is for it to follow Israel’s path of dependency on Washington.”

It appears, though, that despite the legitimate warning from Carden, Ukraine has already fallen into the “Israel Model.” Dependency likely might only end or slow down when the presidential election campaign season begins. Until then, it appears that Biden is fully committed to ensnaring Ukraine into the “Israel Model”.

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