US Geopolitics And Prospects Of War In UkraineSouth Front

SouthFront: Analysis & Intelligence is offering an exclusive analysis “US Geopolitics And Prospects Of War In Ukraine” by Prof. Vladimir Prav

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Written by Prof.Dr. Vladimir Prav exclusively for SouthFront

Currently, US foreign policy assumes a default position of US leadership within the framework of the building of a multipolar world. To ensure the perpetuation of this concept, one of the main tasks for the United States is to prevent the creation of any military and political alliances between such powers as Russia, China, India, Brazil and the European Union.

This is currently being implemented successfully with regard to preventing any relationship between the European Union on the one hand, and China and Russia on the other.

With regard to the European Union, with the help of the countries of Eastern Europe, which are absolutely subordinate to the will of Washington, the United States is building an iron curtain between Europe and Russia, as well as between Europe and China, which are both obstacles to the Silk Road. The United States inveigled European countries to take part in the armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, due to the policy of the United States, the European Union has lost its political, economic and financial power, having been relegated to being a US foothold in Eurasia.

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With regard to China, Washington amplifies any disagreements between the mainland and the island of Taiwan, as well as religious and ethnic issues in the Xinjiang Uygur District and in Tibet, in an attempt to shake up China’s internal stability. Great efforts are taken to undermine Beijing’s economic and military power, which today is challenging the U.S. on the global stage. With support from the countries of Central and Southeast Asia, Washington is trying to install an Asian iron curtain around Beijing in order to reduce its geopolitical influence and hinder the development of China’s international logistics. In an attempt to contain China, in addition to fueling conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region, the United States is engaged in unleashing trade wars and establishing technological blockades, which has a strong impact on China’s development.

As for Russia, the United States is fueling conflicts, first of all, in ethnically-close and fellow-Orthodox republics of the former Soviet Union, such as Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia, with the aim to sever the link between Russia and these territories, and turn them into hostile states. Thus, Ukraine was so heavily reformed spiritually, mentally, historically, politically and economically from 1992 to 2022 that it turned into an enemy of Russia. Washington continues similar operations in Moldova, Georgia and Armenia.

Over the past few decades, the United States has been restraining Russia’s development and its transformation into one of the most powerful bulwarks of a multipolar world, particularly by unleashing armed conflicts, which involve the Russian military. An example is Ukraine, where Russia has been conducting the special military operation since 2022.

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There are several scenarios of the further development of the armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

The transition of the military confrontation into a long-term phase. From Russia’s point of view, this may lead to:

a reduction in the resource base necessary for conducting military operations;
an increased instability, both locally and internationally;
the greater likelihood of a direct military conflict against the armed forces of NATO countries, that is, the Ukrainian-Russian conflict may escalate into a regional one. This is due to the fact that NATO trains the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, supplies weapons, provides operational and tactical intelligence, facilitates communications; and conducts combat planning. In addition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Western PMCs and special forces of individual NATO countries are taking part in hostilities in Ukraine;
increasing the likelihood of deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield;
laying the ground for the escalation of a regional military conflict into a global military one.

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The military defeat of Ukraine. Russia’s military, demographic, economic, and financial resources can ensure victory over Ukraine. At the same time, the main features of its complete victory include:

the time frame for achieving victory should not be stretched over years;
after Russia’s victory, Ukraine should not become part of the Western world;
there should be no scope for the revival of militarism in Ukraine, which requires the demolition of the remaining military industries and armed forces; the destruction of motivated guerrilla resistance in the territories of the new regions of the Russian Federation; the Bandera (Nazi) ideology must be entirely eradicated.

A possible strategic task for Russia in 2024 may be the liberation of the main parts of Novorossiya, above all, such strategically important regions, like the Kharkov and Odessa regions. Control of Kharkov will dramatically reduce the capabilities of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, as well as secure the border with the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation. Control of Odessa will provide access to Transnistria, which will lead to the destruction of the current encirclement of Russia by NATO countries).

Ukraine (if it continues to exist as a state) should remain in Russia’s sphere of influence; Kiev should not join NATO and should not receive EU membership.

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Frozen armed conflict. This would inevitably lead to the reinforcement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine through the supply of modern weapons and financing by 31 NATO countries, as well as to the further rallying of NATO countries against their common enemy (Russia), and the extension of large-scale sanctions against it. Ukraine will remain an enemy of Russia for decades and will not stop preparations for military operations and battles for the territories it lost. Thus, any freezing of the conflict will lead to a more dangerous military confrontation between Russia and the united Ukraine-NATO bloc. In addition, global elites and multinational corporations associated with military-industrial complexes will do everything possible to either prolong the Ukrainian crisis or turn it into a larger regional war.

Currently, there is a high probability of troops of NATO members like Poland, Hungary and Romania entering western Ukrainian regions. This could turn the military confrontation between Russia and NATO into an open hot phase within the framework of a regional war.

It is important to note that the US military and political leadership is confident that Russia will not strike at the territory of any NATO country, fearing a direct military confrontation. Also, the United States is not yet afraid of the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia for the purpose of attacks on decision-making centers in Europe, not to mention the use of strategic nuclear weapons against the United States. However, Russia’s nuclear weapons deter the United States from direct military confrontation; thus, the armed struggle is being waged through the use of Ukraine. Washington is using Ukraine as an expendable material to weaken Russia. At the same time, in accordance with its doctrinal military documents, the United States is ready to use tactical nuclear weapons for preventive or preemptive strikes on the battlefield, if the strategic situation requires.

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In these circumstances, it is reasonable for Russia to state harshly that if the Ukraine-Russia armed conflict escalates into a regional war against the Ukraine-NATO bloc, and if the strikes with NATO-made long-range cruise missiles on Russian territory continue, then NATO strategic military facilities in various NATO countries will be struck with tactical nuclear weapons in response. In this case, only demonstrative strikes can ensure the de-escalation of the armed conflict in Europe. Of course, the use of tactical nuclear weapons can lead to a global nuclear war. However, such an escalation is unacceptable for the United States. Preventing a world war is a red line not only for Russia, but also for the United States.

Considering the possibility of deployment of nuclear weapons by the US, it should be noted that in modern conditions of hybrid war between the United States and Russia, double standards in evaluating the nuclear geopolitics of different states, as well as erroneous assessments of each other’s actions, can become a source of danger. This increases distrust between nations, and increases the likelihood of conflict. To reduce the risks of such situations, there is a need to develop a united international apparatus for assessment of states’ behaviour, using objective methods of evaluation.

With respect to the US military-industrial complex, American military analysts have concluded that the conflict in Ukraine has revealed serious problems. The US military-industrial base has declined over the past decades and has proved unable to match current military-political ambitions. Replacement time for critical military hardware can average more than 10 years.

On top of that, there is an urgent need for the mass production of simple and cheap autonomous marine drones to conduct “network-centric wars” more effectively. The main idea of “network-centric war” is the integration of all forces and means within a single information space, which makes it possible to multiply the effectiveness of their combat use. A unified network of intelligence, communications and control facilities is linked to a network of weapons of destruction, combat and logistics support networks.

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The features of the “net-centric war” are particularly pronounced today in Ukraine and provide for four main phases of warfare:

1) achieving information superiority through the advanced destruction (disabling, suppression) of the enemy’s intelligence and information support system (intelligence facilities and systems, network-forming nodes, information processing and management centers);

2) gaining air superiority by suppressing (destroying) the enemy’s air defense system;

3) the consistent destruction of enemy weapons left without control and information, primarily missile systems, aviation, artillery, and armored vehicles;

4) the final suppression or destruction of the enemy’s pockets of resistance.

For the successful implementation of each of the above phases, it is necessary to keep ahead of the game and have more accurate and complete information about the enemy’s forces.

On the one hand, the United States has staked a great deal on the prospect of Russia’s defeat, destabilization and collapse after the victory of the Ukraine-NATO alliance in the armed conflict. Apparently, the United States does not exclude the possibility of a direct confrontation with Russia. Thus, in February 2023, the Task Force on Strategic Options was established in the United States as a subcommittee of the Defense Science Council (DSB). The task of the new structure is to avoid the high cost of US intervention, in terms of the military personnel and the loss of valuable assets, in the event of a direct military conflict with countries that seek regional power. The Task Force is involved in the development of new weapons and strategic concepts in order to defeat Russian and China with the lowest possible cost, in the event of a military conflict.

On the other hand, Russia has bet on the defeat of the Ukraine-NATO alliance. If Russia wins, Ukraine will either remain a neutral state, losing more than 60-70% of its territory, or disappear from the global political map. The defeat of the Ukraine-NATO alliance, as well as the defeat of the United States, will lead to a more significant failure; US efforts to impede military, political and economic cooperation between the new centers of power, and to ensure the destruction of their individual potential, will have proved futile, as will attempts to maintain leadership within the multipolar world. Therefore, it is quite likely that the United States will attempt to “freeze” or prolong the Ukrainian conflict for many years.