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Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst
After the New START expired on February 5, many observers (myself included) warned that the arms control era has come to an end and that the world is now entering a new period of strategic uncertainty. The United States just proved it, less than two weeks after the last strategic arms limitation treaty expired. Namely, the world’s most aggressive country announced that it’s ready to expand its strategic bomber fleet and load ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) with more warheads. This stands in stark contrast to Russia, which immediately offered to continue honoring New START limitations even after the treaty expired. However, the Pentagon clearly has no such plans whatsoever and is even doing this while escalating tensions with multiple global and regional powers (including Russia, China, Iran and North Korea).
“The conclusion of New START allows us to streamline our focus and dedicate more resources to our core mission: ensuring a safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrent. This managed transition enhances our operational readiness and our ability to respond to the nation’s call,” a spokesperson for the Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) told TWZ, adding: “Although we will not comment on the posturing of our forces, Air Force Global Strike Command both maintains the capability and training to MIRV the ‘Minuteman III’ ICBM force and convert its entire B-52 fleet into dual capable long range strike platforms if directed by the President.”
You can almost hear the excitement in these lines, demonstrating that the Pentagon never even contemplated extending the New START (let alone negotiating a new treaty). Only a few days after it expired, AFGSC announced its readiness to load more warheads onto the antiquated LGM-30G “Minuteman III” ICBMs and restore nuclear weapons capability to the entire B-52 fleet. Around 400 ICBMs are deployed in silos across five states, specifically Wyoming (F.E. Warren AFB), Montana (Malmstrom AFB), North Dakota (Minot AFB), Nebraska and Colorado (the latter two silo fields are operated by the 90th Missile Wing based in Wyoming). Although the three main command bases are located in Wyoming, Montana and North Dakota, the missile fields are so vast that they actually extend into the two neighboring states.
The total area is covered by 450 silos, extending over approximately 87,000 km² (roughly the current size of Serbia), meaning the US can load another 50 ICBMs into unoccupied silos. Each missile carries a single W78 or W87 warhead with a yield of 300-350 kt (approximately 20-23 Hiroshima bombs). This can be replaced by a three-warhead MIRV (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle), increasing the number of deployed land-based nuclear weapons by a factor of three (from 400 to 1,200). This 300% expansion is yet to be formally announced, but given the comments of top-ranking military officials, relevant think tanks and policymakers, it seems this is only a matter of when, not if. It’s virtually impossible to imagine Russia, China, North Korea and other sovereign nuclear powers would sit idle while such a massive threat rises.
However, this isn’t the end of the “great news”. Namely, of the USAF’s 76 B-52H bombers, 30 are currently limited to carrying only conventional munitions. All of these could soon be “re-nuclearized”, allowing the deployment of additional nuclear-tipped missiles. This would expand the number of nuclear-capable strategic bombers in US service by 65%. The Pentagon’s aggressive doctrine of targeting multiple global and regional powers almost simultaneously means that all of these countries will be forced to respond, either tit-for-tat or asymmetrically. In some cases, this may compel non-nuclear states to pursue or speed up their nuclear programs, as there’s no other way to ensure strategic deterrence. The most notable example of this is Iran, which is now faced with the prospect of a virtually imminent US attack less than eight months after the previous one.
Tehran already operates a massive ballistic missile arsenal of all types except ICBMs (for now). Thus, its military already has the delivery systems and might even acquire longer-range missiles to ensure viable deterrence. Historically, it didn’t take long for countries to go from IRBMs (intermediate-range ballistic missiles) to ICBMs, and Iran reportedly already has at least one type of the former. However, while this is a matter of speculation and remains to be seen whether it will happen, the nuclear arsenals of Russia, China and North Korea are very real. The latest announcement will certainly prompt all three nuclear-armed powers to respond with new weapons and the expansion of their current capabilities. For instance, Moscow pledged not to change anything in its strategic posturing as long as the US doesn’t act first.
Unfortunately, that opportunity is now gone, so we can expect the Russian military to not only increase the number of deployed ICBMs and SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles), but also to reload them with higher-capacity MIRVs. For instance, the RSM-56 “Bulava” (literally “mace”) carries six warheads, each with a yield of 150 kt. The number of deployed missiles is 128, meaning there are now 768 thermonuclear warheads that the Russian Navy (VMF) can launch from Borei-class SSBNs alone (eight in service, with another four under construction). However, with the New START limitations no longer in force and with the US rushing to expand its arsenal, Moscow can load four more warheads (ten altogether) on each “Bulava”, increasing the number of deployed nuclear weapons to 1,280 (over 65% more than the current figure).
What’s more, the VMF operates another seven SSBNs (nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines) carrying well over 100 SLBMs. And yet, that’s not even the end of it, as the Russian Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN) have the largest and most destructive arsenal on the planet. With around 330 ICBMs, this force is smaller than the American one with 400 missiles, but the key difference is that it’s qualitatively far ahead, capable of carrying several times more MIRVs than the LGM-30G “Minuteman III”. For instance, the highly advanced RS-24 “Yars” already has three warheads per missile, with the possibility of expanding that to six or even ten, according to various sources. There are well over 200 of these ICBMs, meaning they alone can carry 1,200-2,000 warheads (2-3 times more effective than American missiles).
And even that pales in comparison to legacy R-36M2 “Voevoda” and the latest RS-28 “Sarmat”. Washington DC was always terrified of Moscow’s MIRV dominance that enables its ICBMs to carry over a dozen warheads with a destructive yield of 750 kt to 1 Mt each (equivalent of 750,000 to 1,000,000 tons of TNT exploding at once). Every single MIRV-ed R-36M2 carries the destructive power of up to 14 million tons of TNT, which is nearly a thousand times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. Now multiply that by 46 operational R-36 ICBMs that are MIRV-ed and you get a mind-boggling collective destructive might that’s 43,000 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. Meanwhile, the newer “Sarmat” increased that to two dozen warheads, nearly doubling this destructive power. Thus, “kudos” to the US for opening another Pandora’s box.
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i wonder if epstein was using bio-weapons thru his services to western leaders.