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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
A deal to supply US-made nuclear attack submarines under the AUKUS military partnership with the UK and Australia is facing increasing pressure and doubts over fears of delays. This scenario has created alarm among the Anglo allies, especially Australia, which has nothing tangible to show in terms of results in the agreement that replaced the Australian deal to acquire French-made non-nuclear submarines with AUKUS.
“But three years later, critics argue the AUKUS partnership has made little progress. It faces questions in all three countries over when it will be able to deliver. Even supporters acknowledge that AUKUS, which is meant to link the allies for decades to come, needs to show some concrete results before the end of this year – with elections coming up in two of the three partners – if it is to succeed,” Bloomberg reported.
In addition, the US, in an attempt to make up for decades of post-Cold War production cuts, is seeking to produce nuclear submarines at a pace not seen since World War II. According to a government report cited by Bloomberg, even if it meets its planned targets, a shortage of attack submarines could emerge in the United States once it begins shipping them to Australia.
“If you fast forward 10 years, I will be shocked if the Australians have a sub. It just seems very optimistic to think that all these investments will turn out by then,” said Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute cited by the outlet.
Officials in all three countries are not as pessimistic but admit that the effort has faced early obstacles. Despite the lack of pessimism from these officials, Bloomberg reported, “Further clouding the outlook is the possibility that Donald Trump, who’s been skeptical of US alliances globally, wins the White House in the fall.”
Elbridge Colby, who held a top Pentagon job in the last Trump administration and is advising on plans for a possible new one, said “the jury’s still out” on the submarine part of the deal and that “AUKUS needs to be measured by delivery for the military balance in Asia in a relevant timeframe.”
With Trump consistently leading in the polls, there is every chance he will become president in January 2025. For now, the full repercussions this could have on the AUKUS agreement are unknown, especially if it turns out that prioritizing Australia’s rapid militarization is to the detriment of the US’ immediate military needs.
Nonetheless, Bloomberg reported that “feeling the pressure for results, President Biden’s administration is preparing to roll out some initial AUKUS success stories in the next few months.”
The leaders of the US, Australia, and the United Kingdom held a virtual trilateral summit on September 15, 2021, during which they signed a new agreement to intensify military cooperation: AUKUS. Under the agreement, Washington will share its nuclear-powered submarine technology with Australia, construct the infrastructure necessary for permanent deployment in Australia, and extensively cooperate in the development of the most advanced weapons systems. The Australian military will also be equipped with American weapons, and standards for combat operations will be introduced.
AUKUS was established with the intention of stepping up efforts to militarily contain China, although the three countries have not explicitly said this. Beijing has previously stated that “the three countries, for the sake of their own geopolitical interests, completely disregard the concerns of the international communities and are walking further and further down the path of error and danger” and that the deal was a “textbook case of double standard.”
Although AUKUS has achieved no tangible results, and there are already fears about delays, the organization was only months ago mulling the idea of expansion, such as to New Zealand. This is, of course, overly ambitious considering, as Bloomberg reported, there are many issues that need to be overcome.
“Officials are mainly concerned about Australia’s ability to develop the huge industry needed to support the vessels in time, according to a person familiar with the situation,” the outlet reported.
Another issue is that the US will always prioritize its immediate needs and interests over Australia’s despite any deal signed.
“Washington surprised Canberra this spring by putting only one new Virginia-class sub in its annual budget request instead of the usual two, hoping to keep the overall cost down. The news set off a firestorm in Australia, where newspapers called it a ‘potential blow’ to AUKUS,” Bloomberg reported.
Malcolm Turnbull, who served as prime minister from 2015 to 2018 and was behind the original deal with the French before Scott Morrison controversially replaced it with AUKUS, conveyed perfectly in an op-ed the current state of affairs from Australia’s perspective: “This is really a case of us being mugged by reality. So much for Australian sovereignty.”
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back in 2014, i remember russia was replacing their submarines, both ballistic and attack, rolling out one of each a year. programme replacement is still running, with many new submarines in active service. they had started the roll out around the time the uk was replacing their attack submarines with astute, which arrived around a decade late.
2) us, france and uk are replacing their ballistics, to start rolling out in 2029, but, already looking like they will not be ready till around 2039. just gotta love western mic, who run away with budgets and never deliver on time.
the plan is to build up to 12 submarines of 885th project (underwater cruiser/attack submarine) and up to 14 submarines of 955th project (strategic cruiser/ssbn). after 2030 new generation of universal submarines may be constructed, project 545. universal means that such submarine can launch all types of missiles (including intercontinental) using universal launching containers.
militaryrussia ru/blog/topic-339.html
militaryrussia ru/blog/topic-338.html
the yassen class (cruise missile ssgn) – a project of 12, with 5 completed and in active service and 4 in various stages of build. boreii (ballistic ssbn) – a project of 12, with 8 completed, 7 in active service and 3 in various stages of build. not forgetting that russia also has the regular attack ssbn class and not forgetting the ‘black hole’ as nato call her electro-diesel submarines, that nato cannot hear.
good times
the goal was just to make the aussis call of the deal with the french if australia gets any subs is not important to the usa. ;-)
anglos always face delays. they are not in the business of building stuff any more. they pay contractors $30,000 for a toilet and $2000 for hammers. good luck with the submarine racket. someone, somewhere will be bleeding from the rear end wasting money and time, while someone else will always make plenty of money at someone’s expense and appreciate the value of absolutely nothing. nada. zilch. that is how they roll
aukus is a sad example of the cloud-cuckoo-land created by western propaganda, disconnection from military and political realities, and a servile celebrity-focussed media.
the ozzies were taken for the suckers they are by uncle sam, the flimflam man.
what else would one expect from australia, dragged into a ridiculous western “weapons program” with no escape clause. ur idiot auzzie “elites” thank the nation for it’s servitude…