Illustrative Image
Written by Piero Messina
The United States is walking on a razor edge. They need a new war to resolve their internal crisis. Let’s look at the numbers. Comparing US GDP and debt data for the third quarter of 2023, we find that the US economy generates less than $1 in growth for every dollar in new debt. The US deficit, in December last year, grew by 129.4 billion, that is, 40 billion more than the average estimates which expected 87.5 billion and above all more than a 50% increase compared to the 85 billion budget deficit of December 2022. We are at 2020 levels, when the federal budget was conditioned by the pandemic emergency. Yet all of this is happening as Wall Street celebrates unprecedented growth.
The reason for this euphoria on the stock market is quickly explained. To address the local banking crisis that was bringing US monetary policy to its knees, the Fed had introduced a system of subsidized loans, The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP).
As the official note from the Federal Reserve explains, “The BTFP was a new program put in place on March 12, 2023, to deal with a panic among depositors that had led them to yank their cash out of a bunch of banks, in some cases essentially in days, leading to the collapse of three regional banks, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic, where all depositors were made whole by the FDIC, but investors were wiped out. A fourth bank, Silvergate Capital, which had experienced the first run on the bank in this cycle was unwound under pressure but without FDIC funding”.
The BTFP will be suspended on March 11. With what consequences? US regional banks survive only thanks to the BTFP, the Fed’s support fund which is now used for amounts exceeding 148 billion weekly. It’s not easy to navigate the crazy rules of global finance. Yet one thing is quite clear. Without that financial support, the King of Wall Street could appear naked and everything suggests yet another crisis with the epicenter, once again, the real estate sector.
Because in reality, putting the stock indices aside, the real US economy is instead gasping. On January 11, the annual trend data for US inflation for the month of December 2023 was released, which was found to be 3.4%, therefore 0.2 points higher than the estimate reported by Bloomberg which collects the estimates of operators of the Wall Street market. The following day, January 12, air-naval military operations began by the Americans and the British in the Red Sea area adjacent to Yemen, at the important entry and crossing strait of the Red Sea towards the Suez Canal. A situation suggests uncertain and worsening prospects for trade, both in Europe and in the USA.
Furthermore, the multiplication of crisis scenarios makes it increasingly probable that the price of oil will rise again, with values of 110-120 dollars. An event of this type would make the inflation phenomenon uncontrollable, with values that within a few years would once again exceed the 7% average inflation rate. A situation that would be impossible for the Federal Reserve to control, causing public debt to spiral out of control.
It is for this reason that economists at large banks such as Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan Chase believe the US economy is more likely to enter a recession in the next 18 months. While not technically indicative of a recession, which results in negative economic growth, Fed officials expect U.S. economic output to grow just 1.4% in 2024, which would be the weakest growth since 2009, barring the reversal trend of 2020 caused by the pandemic.
“A mild recession is not a mild event and would generate a significantly more adverse outcome than a soft landing with slow growth,” explained Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan’s chief economist, in his 2024 forecast.
The question to ask is: can the Biden administration face ten months of electoral campaign with an economic crisis in its backyard? The answer is, of course, no. For this reason it is reasonable to expect a resurgence of proxy wars. And in fact, the US administration first officially closed the Ukrainian case, announcing the end of military aid, putting the EU politically offside. Now it has moved into action towards the big target. A few hours after Joe Biden’s first official mention of Iran, the US and UK attacked Houthi rebel positions in Yemen as a reaction to the attacks in the Red Sea. The reply was immediate. The retaliations will be severe. I mean, we’re at war now. A war that will be fought in the name of financial madness. With Gaza now far away, transformed into a political argument and showdown by an international tribunal. Everything is ready for the “March surprise”.
entre guerres latentes et patentes oui nous le sommes …
et depuis longtemps avec l’ impérialisme us en plein declin et d’ autant plus dangereux pour avoir recours à la soi disant force usa ayant de multiples bases sur cette terre .
mais là russie peut avec les armes supersoniques les faire renoncer à une frappe directe , la dissuasion est cependant réelle mais avec la folie biden père et fils ???? le père couvrant le fils de ses plus que méfaits …le danger est réel .!
nos bons dirigeants de l’europe qui n’ont toujours pas trouvé qui a fait sauter nordstream 2 s’empresseront de sacrifier nos économies….. les parts de marché perdues en eu sont récupérées sur le marché us. c’est déja la cas.
oui et, à cause des sanctions, le business que l’europe a perdu en russie, qui a mis 40 ans à se mettre en place. mauvaise politique choquante des gouvernements européens.
me repressed by hillbilly lgbt—lick amerikunty boot
no $$ in my trailer—killed my pet rat to make taco
in amerika we worship money
in america you worship the printing press producing your worthless paper monkey bills.
the united states has been in recession for almost 2 years. biden came out and said it’s not a recession cause i say so despite the math. what we are going into is a major depression. it’s amazing how everyone went along with his declaration despite the obvious facts but this is the state of the world we live in now
liberal economists including the clownish paul krugman had to change the meaning of recession after covid hoax. things are rough there.
russian has too.
in april they has elections betwen one person.
murika is a parasite state. its impact is measured in millions of lives p.a murdered, maimed and displaced to service its unpayable $34trn debt (like an iceberg, this is only the visible bit).
the world has to unite to isolate murika and it’s gun crazed elites; banning the arms trade and seizing all u-s-assets to help pay reparations for its myriad crimes over the decades. if not, its negative parasitic presence will kill us all – without ww3.
it’s a stolen land, built on slvry and ruled by a selfsrving inept elite. domestic decline triggered a crmnl response including setting up oversees conflicts to sbsds the m i c and ‘acquiring’ land/resources using complex $ loans to pppt governments it illegally installs.
all of these, let us say, ‘enterprises’ are justified by ‘democracy’ (ill defined, flexible, easily manipulated), run by crrpt corpos, funded by taxpayers, protected by the u-s-mltry (and its vssls) and enabled by the cwrdice of others
give moron amerikan vast evidence they will deny truth and beg for taco…”corrupt people require incompetent leaders”. machiavelli
good job. the author is well versed and is foreseeing exactly what will happen. when us is not doing well, it finds someone to steal from.
the us wants to fight the whole world. lol
which coutries are not in recession? make a list…
darebácky štát usa skončil. už nemá koho vykradnúť. teraz sa vrhli na ruské štátne rezervy. ale tie budú musieť nakoniec vrátiť rf po skončení švo!!! inak si rf pôjde po nich sama!!! a to bude potom strašne bolieť. bastardi si mysleli, že môžu beztrestne okradnúť ruský národ? no nemôžu!!!
it not like the war on terror where an oil prices spike and security spending can fix things. they need a massive war to restart the economy. russian gas and cpc assets need to be liquidated.
moneys too tight to mention – brothers johnson
can’t wait for them to decrease their federal interest rate and seeing their inflation kick to new summits!
i flip burger in gay bar for 43 years now live in trailer w pet rat—shawn visit me sell me fentanyl
if our idiot politicians would top prespending us into oblivion and giving out hundreds of billions in foreign aid that we don’t have then maybe we would be better off. but, idiots in charge=eventual ruin, sooner or later. blame hr lol
impersonator trolls are targeting me because i am a homosexual. ignore the spam and do not follow any of the links posted under this name.
“karate buryat”
ima 2023—all g-20 nations decline in gdp real wages —except russia china and mexico where gdp and wages increase
our female pay amerikan mulatto for sex