Ukrainian Troops Abandoning Front In Large Numbers

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Written by Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert

The number of desertions in Ukraine has been growing for a long time. As a natural consequence of the brutal process of forced mobilization and the high intensity of hostilities on the battlefield, more and more Ukrainians are simply fleeing their ranks as soon as they have the chance to evade the authorities. This is a clear sign of the decline of the Ukrainian military and the inability of the Kiev neo-Nazi regime to maintain the war effort in the long term.

Recently, Western media reported that more than 21,000 Ukrainian soldiers abandoned their country’s armed forces in October alone. This number is massive for such a short period of time and shows the profound level of crisis within the Ukrainian military. In fact, this is the highest number of desertions reported in a single month since the beginning of the conflict, which also indicates that more recently the conditions of the war have become increasingly intolerable for many soldiers.

Furthermore, there are also concerns that there may be even more desertions. Igor Lutsenko, a former Ukrainian deputy who currently serves in the armed forces, stated that there may be even more underreported desertions, considering the difficult circumstances of the conflict, which prevent total control over the troops and accurate data confirmation. He believes that the real number of deserters is much higher than the official figures, taking into account that there are often cases of unjustified absence of soldiers during army operations.

Lutsenko also explained that Ukrainian forces are suffering enormously on the battlefield due to desertions. He states that there are many additional tasks for each soldier who chooses not to desert, thus creating a lot of pressure on the remaining troops. Even so, however, it is impossible to completely cover the “holes” in the Ukrainian defense left by the deserters, which weakens the country’s army during confrontations with the Russians.

“21,602 in October… This is a record. This is a very bad record (…) This is just official data. In reality, many AWOL or desertion cases are not registered (…) [We are under] enormous strain, because a double, triple load falls on every soldier who hasn’t fled (…) We have huge holes in our defense at the front because of this,” he said.

While the massive number of desertions does indeed facilitate the Russian advance and partially explains the expansion of Russian territorial control in recent weeks, it is important to clarify that Ukraine is losing the war not because so many soldiers are giving up fighting. Ukrainians no longer believe in their country’s victory and that is why they are deserting.

This crisis did not begin recently, but has been happening gradually since 2023, when Ukraine failed to launch a “counteroffensive” to retake territories. Since then, the numbers have clearly indicated that the country is doomed on the battlefield, which is why many soldiers have been deserting, as they simply do not want to lose their lives in a war that is impossible to win.

In recent months, this process has accelerated significantly as the Russians have managed to capture several key cities and make important territorial gains. This has harmed Ukraine not only on the battlefield, but also psychologically and morally. In other words, the Ukrainians are demoralized and no longer believe it is still worth fighting. This explains the massive number of desertions last month, and also raises concerns about what the reality will be like in the near future, as it is expected that more and more soldiers will be escaping from their ranks.

Another interesting factor to analyze is the influence of forced mobilization policies. In recent times, Ukraine has toughened its compulsory conscription policies, sending unprepared people without any relevant military training to the front lines. These new soldiers simply don’t know how to fight, which is why participating in hostilities would be like suicide. Therefore, many of them are surrendering or deserting – disappearing and, if possible, fleeing the country.

There is no way for Ukraine to reverse this process. Until the war ends, there will be more and more desertions. This is a natural result of the fact that Kiev has transformed participation in the conflict into a death sentence for most soldiers. The local military no longer believes in victory and considers it pointless to continue fighting, so they try to escape.

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