Ukraine’s Fall: The Exhaustion of European Will and the Awakening of American Pragmatism

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The past two months have marked a decisive shift in the military–political logic of the conflict in Ukraine. October–November 2025 is not just another phase of a protracted struggle — it is the moment when Western fatigue translated into hard numbers, and American pragmatism began reshaping the rules of the game, bypassing Kiev’s European allies.

Russia’s Strategic Offensive: From Pokrovsk to Zaporizhzhia

On the front lines, Russian forces advance methodically and without pause. In November, Russia seized 134 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in less than a week — twice the October figure. Primary axes of attack include Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeisk), the Zaporizhzhia direction (Huliaipole, Mala Tokmachka, Orikhiv), and Kostiantynivka.

Pokrovsk — a critical logistics hub that controls supply lines for Ukraine’s eastern grouping — teeters on the brink of collapse. Russian assault groups are already operating in the city center, while to the north they are executing an envelopment maneuver through Hryshyne. Ukrainian command throws reserves into counterattacks near Shakhove, but this merely diverts forces from Pokrovsk without altering the strategic picture. Ukrainian military correspondents acknowledge that Russian forces have “broken into operational space.”

In the south — the Zaporizhzhia sector — Russia’s offensive threatens Huliaipole and severs Ukrainian supply routes in the region. Since early November, nine settlements in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts have fallen under Russian control. These are not tactical gains — this is operational-level progress that Ukrainian analysts themselves call “a genuine catastrophe.”

The reasons are simple and brutal: Russia recruits 30,000 volunteers monthly, overwhelming Ukraine with sheer manpower. Add the effective use of FPV drones, artillery, and the weather factor — fall fog reduces Ukrainian UAV effectiveness. Ukraine faces a manpower crisis (losses since the start of the year have exceeded 450,000), ammunition shortages, and a critical lack of reserves.

Russia’s strategic objective is clearly not just territorial seizure but creating conditions for Ukraine’s economic strangulation. Phase one: control over Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts, cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea. Phase two: economic pressure. Phase three: political subjugation. Moscow could push Kiev toward capitulation as early as 2026 if the current tempo holds.

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Europe’s Exhaustion: Military Aid Cut in Half

European politicians’ rhetoric about “supporting Ukraine until victory” collapsed against budgetary realities in October–November. European military assistance to Kiev has been cut roughly in half since July — from €3.8 to €1.9 billion per month. Total monthly support from all donors fell 40% compared to the first half of the year.

France, Spain, Italy—all tightening their belts on weapons and equipment. Spain announced a €615 million aid package in November (including 40 missiles for IRIS-T air defense systems), but it’s a drop in the bucket against the broader decline. Most European countries have either run out of money or prefer to defer spending.

Simultaneously, Europe began cutting social assistance to Ukrainian refugees. Germany reduced payments to newly arrived Ukrainians from the standard €563 (Bürgergeld) to €441 (asylum seeker benefits) starting April 1, 2025. The stated rationale: incentivize employment and trim budgets. The actual savings for the state are negligible (the federal budget saves €730 million in 2026, but states spend an additional €862 million). It’s a symbolic gesture: Europe is signaling to Ukrainian refugees—and through them, to Kiev —that the era of preferential treatment is over.

Financial assistance for 2026-2027 remains under discussion in the format of Ursula von der Leyen’s “three options,” but details are absent. The key message: funding is planned “provided the war ends by late 2026.” In other words, Europe is betting on rapid settlement, not prolonged war. This represents a fundamental pivot in the narrative.

Kirill Dmitriev, Steve Witkoff

Trump Reverses Course: The 28-Point Plan

In October–November, the Trump administration did what Europeans would not dare: opened direct negotiations with Moscow, bypassing Kiev. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff spent three days in Miami in intensive negotiations with Kirill Dmitriev — head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and a key Kremlin negotiator — on October 24–26.

The result is a 28-point document structured around four blocks: cessation of hostilities, security guarantees, European security, and future U.S. relations with Russia and Ukraine. The plan draws inspiration from Trump’s Gaza “success” — an approach built on mutually acceptable concessions and guarantees. Territorial arrangements remain undisclosed, but the fact that the plan is being drafted without Ukraine’s participation speaks for itself.

Dmitriev expressed “optimism,” emphasizing that “Russia’s position is genuinely being heard” — unlike previous attempts. This may mean that Moscow has received signals from Washington indicating a readiness to recognize Russian control over parts of Ukrainian territory in exchange for a ceasefire and guarantees for what remains of Ukraine.

On November 19, a Pentagon delegation led by U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll arrived in Kiev. Officially, the purpose was to “familiarize themselves with the situation.” In reality, the task was to prepare Ukraine’s leadership for negotiations it will not like. After Kiev, Driscoll is scheduled to meet with the Russian side.

U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll. His mission is to restart peace negotiations on behalf of Trump

Trump publicly expressed “surprise at the protracted negotiations,” which in diplomatic language means pressure on both sides — on Russia not to inflate demands, and on Ukraine to accept reality.

Kiev Between Corruption Scandal and Capitulation

Amid military setbacks and dwindling Western support, a corruption scandal erupted in Kiev involving Energoatom and figures close to Zelensky. Allegations of billion-dollar embezzlement, the arrest of businessman Mindich, and demands for ministerial resignations are fueling an internal political crisis that Zelensky attempts to smother with hyperactive diplomacy.

Timur Mindich, a Ukrainian oligarch, is accused of corruption in the Energoatom case

On November 12, Deputy Foreign Minister Serhiy Kyslytsia announced that negotiations with Russia were suspended until year’s end. On November 18, Zelensky declared a “restart of negotiations” and a planned trip to Turkey to meet Trump’s envoy Witkoff. The meeting was canceled at the last moment, but the six-day pivot alone reveals the scale of pressure on Kiev.

Zelensky speaks of “developed solutions” he is ready to present, but it is empty rhetoric. Kiev has no solutions — only attempts to salvage something while the front collapses, Europe tires, and Trump negotiates directly with Moscow. Russia, meanwhile, calmly states: “we’re ready for negotiations, the ball is in Ukraine’s court,” fully aware that time works in its favor.

The Logic of the Moment: Ukraine Is Exhausted

Fall 2025 made one reality clear: Ukraine is exhausted. Not because its army fights poorly — it fights fiercely. But because Russia has more men, more shells, and more strategic patience. And the West no longer has the political will to finance an endless conflict.

Europe cuts aid and prepares for peace. Trump negotiates spheres of influence with Moscow. Kiev staggers between corruption scandals and attempts to appear engaged in negotiations happening without it. Russia grinds down Ukraine’s army and captures key population centers, positioning itself to dictate terms.

The coming months will show how willing Moscow is to compromise — and how prepared Kiev is to capitulate. But the trend is unmistakable: this conflict ends not with Ukraine’s victory but with a deal between the U.S. and Russia in which Ukraine becomes the object, not the subject, of negotiations.

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