“Ukraine’s Air Defense Effectiveness Against ‘Iskander’ and ‘Kinzhal’ Missiles Drops to 6%” — Kyiv Justifies New Arms Supply Boost

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On October 1–2, 2025, Russian forces carried out a series of strikes on Ukrainian territory, resulting in damage to railway hubs, energy facilities, and military infrastructure.

According to the Financial Times, citing data from the London-based Centre for Information Resilience, the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense significantly decreased in September 2025. The interception rate of Russian ballistic missiles fell to 6%, compared to 37% in August. Western and Ukrainian officials link this to the modernization of Russian Iskander and Kinzhal missiles, which have acquired the ability to abruptly change trajectory at the last moment, evading interception by Patriot systems. This is confirmed by a report from the US Defense Intelligence Agency, which notes the difficulties faced by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in countering these advanced Russian missiles.

Ukraine has also faced delays in the delivery of air defense interceptors from the US. The Russian missile campaign has damaged key military facilities and critical infrastructure ahead of winter. It is reported that at least four drone manufacturing plants in and around Kyiv, including a Bayraktar enterprise, were seriously damaged this summer. Patriot systems were also damaged, weakening the air defense network. The attacks also killed specialists trained to operate these systems, including the reported death of Lieutenant Colonel Denys Sakun.

Reports from Western media and Ukrainian officials appear intended to justify further expansion of arms supplies to enhance Ukraine’s defensive capabilities and maintain the US military budget.

Furthermore, it is reported that the Donald Trump administration has approved the transfer of intelligence to Ukraine for strikes deep into Russian territory, including oil refineries, pipelines, and power plants. Previously, such intelligence was provided on a limited basis and primarily for combat operations on the front line. The US is now offering more accurate and operational information, turning facilities into detailed targets for high-precision strikes, which significantly enhances the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces deep inside Russian territory. At the same time, the possibility of supplying long-range missile weapons, including Tomahawk and Barracuda systems, is being discussed, which would increase the potential of Ukrainian strikes.

More on the strikes on Ukraine:

On the night of October 2, Russian forces carried out a series of strikes on military facilities, railway infrastructure hubs, and deployment points of Ukrainian Armed Forces units. The attacks were concentrated on facilities of key importance for the logistics and supply of Ukrainian troops.

Railway infrastructure was subjected to targeted attacks, representing an intensification of strikes on Ukrzaliznytsia facilities in September. The intensity of the attacks increased: hits were recorded in the Odesa (3), Sumy (2), Kirovohrad (2), Poltava (2), Dnipropetrovsk (2), Chernihiv (1), and Donetsk (1) regions.

In Odesa, the Odesa-Sortuvalna depot was hit, leading to a partial collapse of a repair building with an area of about 1,000 m², damage to specialized equipment, and power lines. This depot was involved in the movement of military cargo for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

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Military and logistics facilities sustained significant damage:

• In Druzhkivka (Donetsk region), a strike hit a bread factory used as a logistics base for rear support of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Rations, uniforms, repair equipment, and fuel and lubricants were stored there. As a result, up to seven Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen were killed, and stockpiles of small arms were destroyed.

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• In Pokrovske (Dnipropetrovsk region), a building of the TCC (military recruitment center) was hit. The administrative building was damaged, and vehicles used for transporting mobilized personnel were destroyed.

• In Bucha (Kyiv region), a supply warehouse of the 114th Territorial Defense Brigade was destroyed. The building partially collapsed, and logistics supplies, including radios, batteries, and body armor, were lost. Explosions were also reported in Irpin and Hostomel.

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• In Konotop (Sumy region), a repair base for the locomotive depot was damaged. A fire broke out in a production workshop, machine tool equipment was destroyed, and the depot’s power supply systems were damaged.

• In Levedne (Donetsk region), a strike hit a technical maintenance point and a warehouse of combat material supplies of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Repair bays and vehicles (KrAZ, ZIL, GAZ) were destroyed, an APC was damaged, and stored supplies detonated.

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• In Kramatorsk, an auto transport enterprise housing facilities of the 81st Separate Airmobile Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was hit. Administrative and training buildings were damaged, and trucks, buses, and specialized equipment were destroyed.

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Sharp power outages were recorded in several Ukrainian regions—for example, in Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, “blue flashes” characteristic of accidents at power units were observed. These manifestations may be delayed consequences of previous strikes on energy infrastructure.

During the day on October 2, the Ukrainian side announced the start of massive launches of Russian attack UAVs—at least 200 units simultaneously—which indicates an attempt to overload and stretch the Ukrainian air defense system, creating a difficult situation for interception and covering the main strike groups.

Strikes on Russia:

On the night of October 2, Russian air defense destroyed 85 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles over several regions: 38 over Voronezh region, 13 over Crimea, 11 over Belgorod region, 10 over Saratov region, 7 over Rostov region, 4 over Volgograd region, and 2 over Penza region. In Voronezh region, private houses were slightly damaged, but there were no civilian casualties. In Belgorod region, during the day, 10 villages came under fire, and three civilians were injured.

Against the backdrop of mutual strikes between Ukraine and Russia, the financial confrontation continues. The European Union is discussing the possibility of using frozen Russian assets to provide Ukraine with a loan of up to 165 billion dollars. Formally, this is not direct confiscation, but a financial scheme using the assets as collateral. However, in Moscow, this approach is regarded as “theft.” Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov stated that any attempts by Brussels to use Russian funds, even in the form of loans, will be considered illegal seizure of property.

In response, Russia may take symmetrical measures. The volume of Western assets in Russia is comparable to the frozen Russian funds and is estimated at approximately 300 billion dollars. These funds are accumulated in special accounts, from which foreign companies cannot withdraw them without the consent of Russian authorities. The Kremlin may convert these funds into budget loans, accelerate the nationalization of European companies’ property, or directly confiscate the assets.

The European Union does not demonstrate a unified position on this issue. While the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, support the idea of a “reparations loan,” the Prime Minister of Belgium, where a significant portion of the Russian assets is located, has opposed it, fearing excessive risks for his country.