Ahead of Orthodox Easter, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a ceasefire during the holiday. The temporary truce will take effect at 4:00 p.m. on April 11 and end at the close of April 12, 2026. During this period, hostilities will be suspended on all fronts, including deep strikes against Ukrainian energy and military infrastructure. The Ukrainian side has not yet responded clearly to this initiative. Kyiv may use the lull on the front lines to its advantage, but the situation will not change strategically. Therefore, Ukraine is prepared to take the riskiest steps just to prolong the war.
The Ukrainian conflict could expand significantly and extend beyond the country’s borders. Reports indicate that the Kyiv regime, with the help of Norwegian Navy military specialists, is planning terrorist attacks against Russian ships traveling by sea in the Barents and Norwegian Seas from the port of Murmansk and back. A group of 50 Ukrainian servicemen from the 385th Separate Brigade of Special-Purpose Naval Unmanned Systems has arrived in Norway. Together with Norwegian Navy Special Forces Command specialists, Ukrainian military personnel are practicing using unmanned underwater and surface systems in the Norwegian Sea.
Modern naval science has yet to find an effective way to counter maritime drones. These weapons are relatively simple to manufacture, making it possible to produce them on a large scale. Instances of unmanned boats have been reported not only in the Black Sea, but also in Middle Eastern waters. Neither military nor civilian ships have effective means of countering these drones.
Vessels from Russia or linked to Russia have long been at risk of not only attacks but also hijacking. Tankers have repeatedly been seized by NATO countries. The seizing has occurred under various pretexts. Europe’s primary goal is to disrupt the supply of Russian energy resources to global markets. Consequently, the situation in the Northern Seas is escalating significantly. The Russian Navy has begun escorting some of its tankers through international waters.
NATO would not dare engage in an open confrontation with Russia at sea to disrupt its maritime logistics routes. Therefore, a relatively independent actor is needed to carry out attacks on Russian ships, and Ukraine is ideally suited for this role. However, this shortsighted move could also backfire. An attack on any vessel in northern waters will increase insurance costs for everyone traveling that route. Ultimately, the end consumer, primarily in Europe, will pay the increased price.
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