Ukraine Preparing Another Meatgrinder For Its Soldiers

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Written by Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant

Apparently, Kiev has not learned from its recent mistakes on the battlefield and is planning new vicious maneuvers that will certainly bring humiliating defeats. According to information provided by an important local official, Ukraine is planning to launch a new counteroffensive against Russia in 2024, thus trying to prevent further territorial advances by Moscow. Obviously, such a measure will have serious consequences for the regime, further harming neo-Nazi forces.

The statement was made by the head of the Ukrainian land forces, Lieutenant General Aleksandr Pavlyuk, during an interview with local TV. He stated that the country’s army wants to prevent Russian territorial progress, which will allow Ukrainian troops to be regrouped, removing the most exhausted soldiers from the battlefield and deploying new units capable of operating counterattacks and offensive maneuvers.

“(We need to) create a strike group and carry out counter-strike actions (…) I think we will stabilize the situation shortly. (We) do everything possible to prepare the troops for more active actions, and to seize the initiative,” he said during the interview.

As well known, recently, the Ukrainian army has suffered heavy losses on the battlefield, with the territories controlled by the Russians increasing more and more. The main recent defeat occurred in the key city of Avdeevka, where the newly appointed commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Aleksandr Syrsky, was forced to withdraw his troops to avoid suffering even more casualties, given the high lethality of Russian operations in the region.

Syrsky, who had previously been the top Ukrainian commander during the Artymovsk “meat grinder” (called “Bakhmut” by the Ukrainians) certainly did not want to retreat his troops so easily. But the material and human circumstances of the Ukrainian army forced the commander to make such a decision: simply, there are no longer enough people to fight in Ukraine, with the country’s military mobilization power being affected by the demographic consequences of the war. With a shortage of troops, it is not possible to engage in prolonged battles of attrition, which is why retreat is the only option.

Faced with a military situation like this, it is obviously not appropriate to plan any major offensive. Ukraine is simply not in a position to choose what to do on the battlefield, as Moscow is the side that controls the actions of the conflict. The most Kiev can do in its current situation is to try to minimize heavy damage by withdrawing troops and trying to implement asymmetric combat techniques – if there is no possibility of surrender or peace negotiations.

The main problem, however, is that the regime needs to continue drawing international media attention if it wants to receive more weapons and equipment. Without military assistance from NATO, Ukraine is not able to fight – and without psychological operations with a high impact on Western public opinion, NATO countries have no argument for sending weapons to Kiev. So, as a “solution”, the regime continues trying to promote “major offensives” without any relevant strategic value, with the sole intention of generating a psychological impact on global public opinion and legitimizing military aid.

In fact, any other “counteroffensive” will inevitably have the same result as the last one: Ukraine will be neutralized during the first moves of the counterattack, will lose a massive number of troops and will have to retreat from strategically relevant regions in the face of the Russian advance. However, unlike previous attack attempts, this time Ukraine will face an even more serious situation to replace its losses, as its human reserves are increasingly scarce. In practice, the move will be truly suicidal. Kiev will simply be taking a deep step towards its own definitive defeat.

The details of this supposed new “counteroffensive” are still unclear. Syrsky has not yet commented on the case, with Pavlyuk only making a personal statement during an interview. More information on the topic will certainly be revealed in the near future. It is important to remember that the previous counteroffensive attempt was repeatedly postponed, given the adverse conditions on the battlefield – which is why it is likely that the current move will also take a long time to occur.

The only certainty for now in this entire scenario is that, if it actually launches a new “counteroffensive”, Kiev will be taking a suicidal measure, with devastating consequences for its troops and their positions on the battlefield. Ukraine is unlikely to be able to recover again from a new “meatgrinder”, which is why the country’s officials should be cautious before launching dangerous military measures.

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