On the night of June 24, Ukraine launched a massive drone attack on Crimea. The “Sevastopol” power substation, which supplies the entire power district and serves as the city’s main power grid hub, was targeted. Sevastopol lost power. The Simferopol Thermal Power Plant was also hit. In the village of Kirovskoye, a drone struck near the railway station. There are also reports of strikes in Kerch, Feodosia, and near the Balaklava Thermal Power Plant.
Kyiv is trying to isolate the Crimean Peninsula. The movement of trucks, particularly fuel tankers, along the land corridor through Mariupol has significantly decreased. At least two of the four ferries operating near Kerch have been damaged. Some bridges on the Crimean isthmus have been partially destroyed.
Life for the peninsula’s residents has become more difficult in several ways. It should be noted that the current restrictions are solely due to the high intensity of Ukrainian medium-range drones. Although these drones are relatively inexpensive, each one still costs tens of thousands of dollars.
Another important factor is how many of these drones Ukraine has left. Kyiv’s high-intensity offensive requires substantial reserves of drones and missiles. Otherwise, as soon as the systematic strikes cease, necessary supplies will be delivered to Crimea via a land corridor, rendering any restrictions ineffective. The Russian command will then be able to seize the moment and launch an offensive on one section of the front without fear of massive strikes against its near- and medium-range rear areas. Based on the above factors, it looks that Kyiv has gone “all in,” risking everything in the event of failure.
Russia, for its part, may have deliberately shifted to a supporting role in attacks on the rear, particularly during the summer. The Russian focus is undermining Kyiv’s military capabilities rather than destroying the entire Ukrainian infrastructure. Additionally, Moscow may be planning to stockpile an ample supply of drones and missiles before the start of fall.
Last year’s strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure were effective and caused Kyiv significant trouble. The situation in the capital regarding heat and electricity was so dire that heating and power stations had to be set up in courtyards. As the cold weather sets in this year, Ukrainians may face an even harsher winter. In response to attacks on Russian oil refineries, Moscow may shift from a strategy of limited strikes to the total destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
If cracks appeared in Ukraine’s foundations last winter, they could turn into a serious rift in just three or four months. Still, the main threat for the current regime in Kyiv is a consistent progress of Russian forces on the battlefield where Ukrainian troops continue to suffer from regular setbacks in key directions.
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