Ukraine Amid an Energy Crisis and Waning Western Support

On October 17-18, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued with an exchange of strikes, a key feature of which was the record-breaking activity of Russian aviation in employing KAB guided aerial bombs. According to the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff, 268 instances of these munitions being used were recorded in a single day—an absolute maximum for 2025, significantly exceeding the previous record of 193 aerial bombs set in September.

The Russian side claims that during the strikes, it hit critical transport infrastructure facilities, defense industrial enterprises, a GUR drone operator training center, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) assembly workshop, an air defense radar station, and numerous Ukrainian unit deployment points—across 156 districts in total.

Reports indicate that in Zaporizhzhia, a weapons storage site, a drone assembly workshop, and a unit with foreign UAV operators were struck.

In Chernihiv region, the target was the 110/10 kV “Shchors” electrical substation in Snovsk. In Sumy region, railway infrastructure facilities and gas stations were damaged. In Kharkiv region, near Chuhuiv, an energy facility close to a railway station was hit.

Furthermore, explosions were reported in Chornomorsk (Odesa region), as well as in Kherson, Cherkasy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, where Russian forces targeted military objects.

The head of Ukrenergo, Vitalii Zaichenko, stated that Russia has changed its tactics for strikes on energy infrastructure. He reported that instead of attempting to disable the entire country at once, Russian forces are now sequentially incapacitating individual energy districts. The strikes have become more precise, focusing on major substations that interconnect different parts of the power system and on thermal power plants supplying electricity to industrial areas and cities. According to Zaichenko, some facilities have been shelled up to ten times, significantly complicating repair efforts. The strikes target not only the power plants and substations themselves but also logistics—roads, warehouses, and equipment. This complicates repairs: even if specialists and equipment are available, delivering them to the site is often problematic.

Against this backdrop, and despite official statements of unity and support, the volume of military and financial aid from the West is declining. The Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung points out that since US President Donald Trump took office, new allocations have decreased significantly. Europe compensated for the deficit in the first half of the year, but since summer, support has sharply dropped—European commitments fell by 57%, from €3.8 billion to €1.9 billion per month.

The overall monthly volume of military aid from all donors has decreased by approximately 40%, as research from the Kiel Institute shows. The PURL initiative has not yielded the expected increase in deliveries; on the contrary, a decline is observed. Meanwhile, Northern countries such as Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Latvia, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Canada remain the most active, having purchased weapons from the US worth about €1.9 billion. Southern Europe is acting far more reservedly: France, Spain, and Italy are limiting themselves to small aid packages and internal programs.

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