Dear friends, during the past 2 weeks, there were signals of the growing confrontation between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as well as the intensifying coordination between Turkey and Russia in Greater Idlib.
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The region of Greater Idlib remains the main source of tensions in Syria.
The March 5th ceasefire deal reached by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow allowed an end to be made to the open military confrontation between the Turkish Armed Forces and the Syrian Army. However, as of mid-April, the main provisions of the deal have yet to be implemented. Members of al-Qaeda-linked groups still enjoy freedom of movement across Greater Idlib and keep their positions with weapons and heavy equipment in southern Idlib.
The safe zone along the M4 highway, the creation of which was agreed, has not been created. All Russian-Turkish joint patrols have been conducted in a limited area west of Saraqib and have just been a public move needed to demonstrate that the de-escalation deal is still in force.
Ankara turns a blind eye to regular ceasefire violations and other provocative actions by militant groups and their supporters. Additionally, it has continued its military buildup in Idlib. The number of Turkish troops in the region reportedly reached 7,000, while the number of so-called ‘observation posts’ exceeded 50. Meanwhile, Turkish-affiliated media outlets ramped up a propaganda campaign accusing the Assad government of killing civilians, of ceasefire violations, of using chemical weapons and of discrediting the de-escalation agreement by calling it the surrender of the goals of the so-called Syrian revolution.
On the diplomatic level, neither Turkey nor Russia demonstrate open antagonism, but statements coming from the top military and political leadership of Turkey regarding the conflict in Syria demonstrate that Ankara is not planning to abandon its expansionist plans or aggressive posture towards the country.
These factors set up a pretext for and increase the chances of a new military escalation in Idlib. However, this time the conflict is likely to lead to at least a limited military confrontation between the Turkish and Russian militaries. Both sides have troops deployed in close proximity to the frontline, including the expected hot point of the future escalation – Saraqib.
Possible phases of escalation are the following:
- Without the full implementation of the Moscow de-escalation deal and neutralization of radicals, the military situation in southern and eastern Idlib will continue to deteriorate. Militants, inspired by their impunity and the direct protection of the Turkish Army, will increase their attacks on the positions of Syrian forces and their Russian and Iranian allies. These attacks will gradually increase in scale until they provoke a painful military response from the Syrian Armed Forces. Militants, surprised at this blatant ceasefire violation by the bloody Assad regime, will continue their attacks, now justifying them by the right of self-defense. G_4 (A) Turkish diplomats and media outlets will immediately accuse the Assad government of violating the word and spirit of the de-escalation deal and will claim that the “unjustified aggression of the regime”, which is supported by the Russians, led to the killing of dozens of civilians and will film several staged tear-jerkers from Idlib to support this. The so-called ‘international community’ led by the Washington establishment and EU bureaucrats will denounce the aggression of the Assad regime and its backers.
- In the face of the continued and increased attacks from Idlib armed groups, the Syrian Army will have two options:
- To retreat from their positions and leave the hard-won, liberated areas to the mercy of Turkey and its al-Qaeda-affiliated groups;
- To answer the increased attacks with overwhelming force and put an end to the ceasefire violations by radicals.
It’s likely that the Syrians will choose the second option. The military standoff in Idlib will officially re-enter a hot phase. The previous years of conflict have demonstrated that militants cannot match Syrian troops in open battle. Therefore, if the Turkish leadership wants to hold on to its expansionist plans, it will have no choice but to intervene in the battle to rescue its proteges. Syria and Turkey will once again find themselves in a state of open military confrontation.
- As in previous escalations, the Turkish military will likely opt to start its military campaign with massive artillery and drone strikes on positions of the Syrian Army along the contact line in southeastern Idlib and western Aleppo. Special attention will be paid to the area of the expected confrontation between Syrian troops and Turkish proxies: the countryside of Saraqib, Maarat al-Numan and Kafr Nabel. Turkish forces will not be able to stop the Syrian Army advance without taking massive fire damage to their infrastructure and to the forces deployed in these areas. Such strikes will also result in further escalation because they will pose a direct danger to the Russian Military Police in Saraqib and Maarat al-Numan, and to Russian military advisers embedded with the Syrian units, which are deployed in southeastern Idlib.
- If Turkish strikes target Russian positions and lead to notable losses among Russian personnel, Moscow will be put in a situation where they will be forced to retaliate. Since the start of the military operation in Syria in September 2015, the Russian Armed Forces have concentrated a capable military group in the country protected by short- and long-range air defense systems and reinforced by Bastion-P coastal defense and Iskander-M ballistic missile systems. Additionally, the Russian Black Sea and Caspian Fleets and Russian long-range aviation have repeatedly demonstrated that they are capable of destroying any target on the Syrian battleground and thus also in any nearby areas.
The Russian retaliatory strike will likely target Turkish military columns in close proximity to the frontline as well as Turkish depots, positions of artillery, armoured vehicles, and material and technical support points in Greater Idlib.
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If, after the Russian strike, the Turkish leadership does not halt its aggressive actions and its forces continue attacks on Russian and Syrian positions in Syria, the escalation will develop further.
The second wave of Russian retaliatory strikes will target Turkish military infrastructure along the border with Syria. HQs and logistical hubs in the province of Hatay, which were used to command and supply its Operation Spring Shield, will immediately be destroyed. The decision to deliver strikes on other targets along the border will depend on the success of Turkish forces in their expected attempt to attack Russia’s Hmeimim airbase and put it out of service.
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Another factor to consider is that should Turkey appear to be too successful in their attack on the Hmeimim airbase, they risk losing their entire Black Sea fleet. While theoretically the Turkish naval forces deployed in the Black Sea are superior to the Russian ones in numbers, the real balance of power there tells a different story. The combined means and facilities of the Russian Black Sea fleet, the Caspian Sea fleet, air forces and coastal defense forces deployed in the region would allow Moscow to overwhelm and sink the entire Turkish Navy. On top of this, Russia, unlike Turkey, is a nuclear power.
Turkey’s NATO allies have already demonstrated that they are not planning to risk their equipment or personnel in order to support Erdogan’s Syrian adventure. Furthermore, a new round of complaints to the UN or demonstrative sanctions will be no help to any destroyed Turkish airbases or to a fleet resting deep underwater.
Ankara will have to find a diplomatic way to de-escalate the confrontation before it gets to this point. The format of this diplomatic solution and the consequences, which Turkey will have to suffer for its military adventure, will depend only on the moment, when the Erdogan government understands that it’s time to stop.
Erdogan is unhinged. Syria must secure the M4 highway. Stay firm, and Turkey will slowly bleed as they are already. Turkey is desperate. If you overwhelm Turkey, they will act rashly. Slowly push Turkey out. The troops are already demoralized.
Iraq is key. If iraqis stabilize their country and throw out the americans, Turkey has no option left, neither do the US linked kurds east of DeZ. They might reee, but if another open conflict Turkey will suffer a lot. It might happen either way as both the syrians and iraqis are livid about the turkroach attacks on their sovereignty. The iraqi kurdistan is full of turkish bases and the leadership itself is a puppet of turkey, while in Syria we all know the blatant land grabs.
If they could have Syrian local civilians push out the US soldiers out from stealing from the oil wells that might get the US off Syrian soil, then follow up the momentum with pushing them out of Iraq too.
You really dont get any of it. You not even try.
The majority of Syrians dont support Assads at all.
Your crap about oil makes no sense. If it was that important, where are the people living above it.
THEY ARE NOWHERE AND TREATED LIKE THAT.
Hahahahahaha
Who told you that?
Iraq by Bagdad are not able to stabiilize Iraq at all. Are You blind or worse?
Both Iraq and Syria has handled their own socalled countries very bad for decades. How can You even write crap like this`????
Bitch, I see you write dumb bullshit on hoholmaps, too. You might say what you want about Iraq, but don’t talk bullshit about Syria, you maggot. You obviously know nothing about Syria pre western aggression, but you dare to talk by putting those arrogant airs of yours that usually are unjustified, mr. wannabe analyst.
And what makes you so sure Iraq can’t become stable, idiot? Unlike Syria, Iraq is a overwhelmingly shia majority nation and that has a lot of weight.
Hi everyone, come here to meet for sex – http://tiny.cc/wazmoz
Big mouth covering there is no brain.
Sabotaged Turkey bases and artillery.
Russian troops won’t fight TSK and die for Syria, just like they won’t fight the IDF and die for Iran. Russia has their own interests to keep and I think it can be done without a war. Should it escalate, the U.S will intervene and force all sides to negotiate before a WW3 starts. Regarding Iran however, the SAA should force them to leave out border area before it gets our of control. If the SAA chooses to ignore our security interests and keep helping Iran and Hezbollah, they will pay a heavy price aswell.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/israel-preparing-open-war/601285/
Well, I don’t think a war between Russia Turkey will start a WW3. Turkey is very unlikely to launch attacks on Russian soil for fear of overwhelming response that may involve nukes. Russia too is unlikely to launch an attack inside Turkey for fear of an all-out war which Russia is ILL-EQUIPPED to complete. The Russian public wouldn’t stand for it and Putin will find himself under intense domestic pressure to end the war.
I think Israel should open the door of negotiations to both Syria and Iran. Israel’s policy towards the Iranians is self-destructive. Should this culminate in an all-out war, I am pretty certain there will be nothing left of Israel when the dust settles, even if Iran lies in radioactive ruin. I still believe from my research that Iran is nuclear armed, or at least they can produce it in a short notice. Rouhani promised some months ago that Iran will surprise the world on the nuclear front. The supreme leader promised that Iran will attack its enemies at the same level they attack Iran. Iran surprised the world just weeks ago with a satellite launch. U.S intelligence agencies accuse Iran of collaboration with North Korea on both ICBM and nuclear technology. And finally, a former Russian general chief of staff, General Yuri Baluyevsky, confirms in a 2002 interview that Iran has nukes it got from former Soviet republics during the collapse of the Soviet Union. You can read more through the links below, and research further. It’ll be dangerous for Israel to consider Iran not nuclear armed. Shiites are a master of denial and deception. You need to read the history of Shiites.
http://pundita.blogspot.com/2007/12/iran-has-nukes-iran-doesnt-have-nukes.html
http://www.iran-press-service.com/articles_2002/Jun_2002/iran_has_nuke_6602.html
https://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message806364/pg1?c1=1&c2=1&disclaimer=Continue
https://www.cuttingedge.org/na/na260.htm
Thank you Objective, as always you write comments based on facts unlike many others here that don’t understand the situation. I’ll read those links.
Where are your usual cohorts threeskins?
Hiding in bunkers, or what!
Hezbollah, Iran, Syria, Iraq, and even Yemen have nuclear missiles. All of their nuclear bombs are made in Israel paid for by United States taxpayers. Their missiles are located in the Demora Nuclear Research Laboratories in Negev. Hezbollah and Iran have thousands of missiles that can reach any part of Israel. Shalom.
No, their nuclear missiles are located in your backyard.
Sorry, I don’t live in Israel nor the Negev Desert. Shalom.
Russia-Turkey relation with the intention of to please Erddogan always smell bullshit.
Putin wants good relations with Turkey as many Oligarchs and companies have economic ties with that muslim country..it is the same case with Israel!..but Russian military have its own interests…one proof is that RUAF attacked a building in Al Bad by “mistake” and killed 4 Turkish officer months after the SU 24 attack!…Turkish soldier fired Stinger vs RUAF SU 24 in Idlib and after that one 1500kg antibunker guide bomb killed 35 Turkish soldiers!…Russian military dont forget the IL-20 and they will response to his time!
This situation should never have been allowed to develop,the SAA and allies had the rats on the run,then once again had a ceasefire,in the meantime the Turks have many more troops in syria and the rats have strengthend their positionsnext time this kicks of for gods sake finish it once and for all,it needs to be a massive blitzkrieg not some half arsed nonsense.
That’s not entirely true, the situation was escalating significantly just before the ceasefire, and Syria was forced to scramble to keep the Turkish military in Idlib contained. It’s therefore likely Turkey would have eventually stabilized their terrorist’s front-line and launched a counter-offensive; given the larger resources at it’s disposal.
Who knows how that prolonged war would have played-out, but it certainly would have been costly and probably wouldn’t have resulted in any significant gains either way. Thus Syria chose the safer option by quitting while it was ahead and solidifying its gains.
As for a Blitzkrieg, Syria was in no position to launch such an offensive after a month of intensive fighting in Idlib already.
obviously Russia has made US and Israel irrelevant—the US is too cowardly to challenge Russia—so is Israel—netanyoo had to go to Moscow and beg forgiveness for downing a Russian plane—-the amerikans turkeys and Israelis have no access to long views—Russians, Arabs, Persians, Asians do—patiently the zioanglo empire and its turkey lackey is crumbling—as the US economy contracts by 25% and vast numbers beg for food in lines the obese incompetent US military will withdraw to their covid caves
True, the turks had no means to counter on the land, yet Russia tolerated their convoys. They should have striked everything then. Now with military buildups the cost on human lives will be much higher.
I understand your frustration. Think of it this way. Why? What are the advantages created, both short and long term and for who?
God bless Russia. Let’s destroy Wahhabi cockroaches no matter of the costs.
Considering that ISIS are being resurrected by the U.S in some parts of Syria, and the SDF are becoming stronger, any overt Russian attack on Turkey will spell the end of the Assad regime. Russia can do great damage to Turkey as the author described, but certainly not without absorbing significant losses in both Military equipment and personnel. While Russia has a superior military technology, it has a disadvantage of numbers on the Syrian front-line.
Should Russia attack Turkey there is going to be a massive retaliation against both Russian and Syrian forces in Syria. The Syrian military will sustain such massive damage that it will be unable to stop terrorists like ISIS, Al-Nusra, and the SDF from overrunning Damascus because Russia will be occupied defending and fighting against Turkish forces. Do not forget that both Israel and especially America will take advantage of the situation and start bombing Syrian soldier. They will pretend to be bombing ISIS members that are moving to take over Syria, but in essence, their aim will be to eliminate Syrian government forces. When the Syrian state collapses with chaos everywhere, Israel will even seize and defend more territory. Iranian forces in Syria will also come under intense fire, as will Hezbollah and other militias. The result will be a nation-wide bloody chaos in Syria. By the time Turkey and Russia end their fight, there will be no Syrian regime, and America would have succeeded. They can even create their Rojava when Turkey is too weak to stop it.
A war is neither in the interest of Russia, Turkey, Syria, or Iran. The only winners of such a war will be America and especially Israel. This is why Turkey, Russia, Syria, and Iran will never let that war happen. Add to that the billions of dollars in economic contract for Russian engineers in various Turkish industries, like in the nuclear and energy industries. All those contracts will be revoked, Russia becomes weaker and even losses its military base in Syria. It further exposes Iran to greater danger as the U.S tries to channel ISIS crazies from Syria to launch attacks inside of both Iran and Iraq.
No. Such a war isn’t going to happen. The author does not understand the full consequences for the warring parties involved.
Russia has a no fly zone over Syria. Russia and Syria is prepared for any erratic Turkish move against Syria. Turkey has no money for war. Qatar is broke. The US is broke. Russia will not ” have an overt attack on Turkey” but Russia will respond on an over attack by Turkey. Turkey can shoot missiles from Turkey at Syria, but they will be shot down by the S-300 just like Israel missiles are shot down. Your premise is wrong. It is Turkey that has attacked Russia. Remember when Turkey shot down the Russian plane? Russia did not retaliate.
Bahahahahahaha…you’re cracked!
You’re insight is useful…IN LALA LAND! LMFAO
You’ve not taken into account many factors, too many to list…stick to cheering for your side and not think you’re a General.
You are the crazy guy here. If you disagree with any points I made, why not single them out and explain why I am wrong.
Please list just a few of the factors I have not taken into account. You don’t have to list all as you claim that they are too many. It’ll be interesting to know your own point of view. Perhaps I’ll learn something from you. But if you cannot list and explain even a few of your long list of factors, I’ll consider you a moronic commentator and will not reply to any of your nonsense, since it’ll be a waste of my time.
1st, what you think of me is absolutely irrelevant.
2nd, your opinion is not only one sided, it’s one dimensional.
3rd, you assume the Crescent allies have 0 capabilities in offensive and 2nd strike warfare and that your remedial assumption haven’t been taken into account by people far more qualified than you, an armchair quarterback.
4th, the checkmate move against Israel and US Regional bases IS in Iranian hands and if you don’t know how or why you’re an imbecile.
It is very obvious that you misunderstood me. I’ll quote two statements you made:
1: “3rd, you assume the Crescent allies have 0 capabilities in offensive and 2nd strike warfare”
2: “4th, the checkmate move against Israel and US Regional bases IS in Iranian hands”
For the first statement, you are wrong. Russia and Syria do have massive offensive capability, but they are still outgunned by Turkey/U.S.A and Israel. Iran is unlikely to escalate in Syria even if Russia goes to war with Turkey. By escalation, I mean launching attacks on Turkey from Iranian soil. Neither will Turkey launch attacks on Iran.
It is not just the offensive capabilities of the Russian camp, but about the surviveability of the Assad regime in such a war. You can bet your last buck the U.S and Israel will join this fight even if they don’t target Russian soldiers directly. They will certainly target the SAA mainly from the air. The U.S wants both Turkey and Russia weakened. So the U.S will not intervene in a fight between them until the Assad regime is overthrown. I don’t have to be a general to see this. It happened before in Libya.
I don’t think there is anything called “second strike warfare”. If you mean the ability of Russia, Syria and Iran to retaliate for a Turkish attack, then they absolutely have that capability. But Iran will not launch attacks on Turkey from Iranian soil, this I am certain of.
U.S and Israeli bases in the Middle East and beyond are within Iran’s reach. But the U.S and Israel will not be launching attacks on Iranian soil – so why would Iran attack them? The fight, if it ever happens, will be fought on Syrian and Turkish soil.
I won’t repeat what I’ve already said except for one thing. Your theory is one dimensional. For example, the war between all parties you mention already is happening. If the the war heat turns up, the LOSS WILL BE israels and the US…PERIOD.
This will never become a hot war between Russia and US…or Turkey…or israel. Iran will not stop and neither should it. If it were the other way around and we were in Iranian shoes, we wouldn’t stop either.
The regional power is Iran and no other. And what the bring is and will be more fair than anything brought by the west.
to converse w a fool like ob requires a fool–obviously an amerikan…”u cannot waste time–you can only waste yourself”. Matthew Adams
1. destroy traitor vehhebi saud-uae paid HTS by turkish army + FSA
2. secure conflict does not escalate with assad and PKK (destroy pkk-sdf when feasible)
3. build security apparatus in idlib and rest of North Syria
4. push Russki to finish the rest of north Syria borders (30 km safe area)
5. get money from EU and Qatar to invest in safe areas and build a strong economy + army
I expect rest of Syria under assad and pkk-sdf areas will deteriorate –> economy dead, no money from Russia and Iran. Iran probably bankrupt in near future or attacked by USA.
We need to be patient and plan for future.
If they were to follow your advice, thousands of nukes would start flying in no time.
The fact is, both Russia and Syria lack the military muscle to reunify Syria. The U.S has made extensive deployments of forces recently, and they are still adding more. Russia’s economy is in no shape for a fight. Should they take on both Turkey and the U.S in Syria, the Assad regime will collapse and Russia will lose the war in the end.
Although the U.S leadership is willing to fight a limited conflict with Russia over Syria, any news of the U.S fighting such a limited war will backfire on Trump. Americans hate to die more than anyone else. And a war with Russia at least puts the U.S on the receiving end of a possible nuclear attack. The uproar in the U.S for a ceasefire would be deafening. So America’s best bet is to push Turkey into a war with Russia, and then overtly support Turkey by pretending to bomb fictitious ISIS members that would be heading for Damascus by then. But those bombs would instead be falling on Syrian soldiers. Israel wouldn’t wait for an invitation to join the action. The result will be a total unraveling of the Assad government, a Weakened Russia, and a further encircled Iran.
Those on this forum who keep wishing for a Russian-Turkey war don’t know what they are praying for.
The US were not prepared to come through on their threats to Iran, a regional power. A paper tiger, at best.
The US will do anything to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia, which is why they prefer to use ISIS.
The only one pushing a RussianTurkish war is Fatboy Pompous, and we know he is a fat, cowardly liar who rolls about threatening everyone with death and misfortune.
your stupendous stupidity suggests that u r amerikan
Read my other comments on this post to know whether I am American or not.
https://southfront.org/venezuelan-forces-neutralized-group-of-mercenaries-that-landed-near-capital-videos-photos/
What don’t you agree with in my comment? And why do you thing I am wrong. Maybe you can correct me where I am wrong. No one is perfect, and believe me, I am always eager to learn. It is possible I can learn something regarding the Syrian crisis from you. it doesn’t make sense to just call me stupid and not say why I am stupid, or what I wrote that makes me stupid.
The trouble is the hidden world powers like freemasons want the Assad government gone as baathists have always resisted freemason infiltration thats why Saddam was taken out and they will starve the Syrian people and sanction them untill the country collapses
Mr Twat?
turkey is economically, socially distressed–stretched thin in syria and Libya…now even the UAE is assisting Syria financially….and while the amerikan imperialists suffer from covid fascism their economy is predicted to contract by 25%—they r unable to help their turk proxies …while Iran has made great strides as has China…for comparisons Russia is predicted to contract by 5%, Germany 6%….Covid will tip the turks into an amerikan thanksgiving meal by November….
America’s economic contraction will not greatly affect their war-fighting capability. In fact, that is what they do in most cases when the economy is in bad shape. They will simply print more dollars and buy whatever they want around the world. The easiest way to destroy America is for the world to stop accepting the dollar. Short of that, you must be willing to sacrifice a lot in blood and treasure to defeat them totally. It is possible to defeat them militarily though. Iran seems to be in the position to do that in the Middle East.
why would you want to fight a super power? for what?
I’d say America is already defeated that place is on its last legs and no one in america has an appetite for war.
this is why military conscription was terminated—today the US military is an employment program that permits the least educated and poorest to work for low wages as mercenaries in order to hegemonies weak defenseless nations
not required to defeat US militarily—they never challenge competent nations…like all empires they r suiciding under the weight of their military expenditures and imperialist misadventures….Johan Galtung predicts the collapse to occur in less that 10 years…as does Orlov and Jameson
The collapse of the USA cannot come fast enough for me.
The ruling elites of the US need to be completely eradicated and all their wealth returned to the decent American people.
Not what will happen. Big money will leave the US, as Americans inherit a country in bad debt…and become 3rd world.
I believe pork is correct–today most rich amerikans hide money in the Cayman Islands, invest in Chinese, European companies and purchase security bunkers in Argentina, NZ, etc…apparently many own underground bunkers in the USA—bill Gates is one…recently I visited the USA and met 2 friends, Florian from Austria and Matias….who remarked I left France 18 years ago and I continue to be puzzled why amerikans r so different from Europeans”. Florian has so many insulting stories about amerikans—he refuses to hire amerikan engineers….Galtung has employed 15 mathematical indices to predict collapse in less than 10 years (he possesses doctorates in sociology and mathematics—he required 6 to predict the disintegration of USSR by 1990
They can have as many underground bunkers as they want, BUT without security forces to protect them that are but rats in a barrel.
Is the collapse in 10 years from now, or earlier?
“Turkey’s NATO allies have already demonstrated that they are not planning to risk their equipment or personnel in order to support Erdogan’s Syrian adventure.”
I wouldn’t count on that. And I feel sure the careful Putin will not either.
Given the right circumstances, Turkey could play up to its NATO allies over “Russian aggression,” a very popular phrase in America now.
It is a very messy situation, and I think it likely to remain messy a long time.
It serves in part the same interest as American troops “stealing oil.”
What they are really doing is making it hard for Syria to be reconstructed.
Because Israel likes it broken.
I don’t understand what exactly you mean by Erdogan being unhinged. Does defending the rights of the legitimate Syrian opposition make Turkey the Bad guy? I doubt you have studied the Syrian situation carefully and objectively enough.
Iran, Russia, and China drafted as proposed a resolution which was unanimously adopted at the U.N. Assad rejected it. Why? Had he accepted to implement the resolution the Syrian war would have ended long ago.
Islamist head hacking savages legitimate opposition? fuck off.
the fascist ob believes al Qaeda, HTS has legitimate rights—-fascists do not possess legitimate rights—except perhaps for prison food when they r incarcerated
Good as much as I hate war but tende Turkish government under Edrogan need a but whooping,they are testing the Russian might and they greedy ambitions will get them nowhere. The Russian have to prove they have are super power to Turkey and they are the main dog in the region..
Blitz the Turks when they’re not expecting it. They are invaders and occupiers, they deserve no mercy and no negotiations.
I’d throw whole russian missile arsenal on them out of the blue. No escalation nothing. I’d make a large economic deal beforehand and give them concessions they never dreamt of, just so the shock is much higher when I’d level their country.
Good short term idea, terrible long term idea. They have the trust now, why waste it on such a short sighted maneuver?
What trust? Why would you trust Turks? You do realize that as soon as they have the upper hand they will betray that trust right? Was Peter the great an imbecile?
No-one would have expected good faith from the Sultan, this cease-fire is like the ones in Novorussia. It has deprived the seppoes of an excuse to intervene and demonstrated that time is on Damascus’s side.
SOUTHFRONT YOUTUBE ACCOUNT IS PERMANENTLY SUSPENDED WTF
I am mildly surprised that southfront still exists and that the brave and dedicated people who keep this site up are still alive……
Julian Assange
This is a good article and makes a lot of sense most of the time, I love it when SF speculates on the current facts and then offers predictions, and many of the ones made in this article I agree with, but only right up to the point they start talking about an all out war between Turkey and Russia. Russia keeps saying that won’t happen, and maybe the journalist forgot about the Bosphorus Straight’s, otherwise he/she would’ve mentioned that simple little fact.
The Russian Black sea fleet can’t do much anywhere else in the world if they attack Turkey, and yes I do know a lot of the fleet in the Black Sea are shallow water vessels and don’t leave the Black sea anyway, but they do have lots of missile destroyers and cruisers there too and I’m pretty sure they do move around.
And the port they have in Syria will be serviced by ships taking the long route down after a war with Turkey starts, which means no more short trips, so supplying Syria and servicing Russian troops stationed there would create new logistical problems for Russia.
So mostly a good article, thanks SF, some of us appreciate this sort of journalism even if we don’t agree with everything said.
Do not forget that the ok for the two Turkish invasions in western Syria was given by Russia,
where it made Turkey from outsider an invading force and a factor in Syria.
The Turks have always stated that they do not leave occupied territories.
The responsibility of the Russians is enormous.
As many years needed for Daesh to defeat, so many years would take for the Turks to leave.
Bullshit. Erdogan’s ambitions were always a factor from well before the first day of the rebellion. Did you miss all the times over the years that Erdogan threatened to send troops into Syria if anybody messed with his head-chopper land and oil thievery? How could you not know this? Do you live in a cave?
“He tried to destroy US and israeli plans to create a Kurdish entity in Syria…”
He didn’t have to – the U.S. already did that. The extra-chromosome folk that run U.S. foreign policy discovered that stealing the big oil/gas fields in Deir EzZor and blocking the Shia Arc would require the local Arab tribe’s participation. That kind of threw a monkey wrench into the works because that made the PYD’s Kurdo-communist autocratic tyranny of committees dream quite impossible. While they could accept Arabs creating their own local committees to argue about local issues, they wouldn’t accept Arabs into the party elite running the new Kurdish State. The PYD didn’t even allow other Kurdish parties to exist, seeing them as an existential threat.
The best the U.S. could do is create a nominally unified army – the SDF. The unity is temporary and superficial at best. Neither side will ever submit politically to the other, and tribal/clan alliances within each side will never be eliminated. No amount of profits from stolen Syrian oil are going to fix the broken-from-the-start US-inspired SDFistan. It will implode the second the sacks of foreign money stop arriving.
Yes, that’s right.
I allow me to remind You that ISIS and not Assad had those oilfields and by that Assads should have taken them back from ISIS.
I cannot see that at all, if ISIS had the SDFs territory.
Your home knitting at your balcony about SDFs and territory is pure speculation.
USA anytime has told, that only Kurds with FSA would be strong enough to keep ISIS down.
USA many times has told, there would be no dicinding if Syria
USA apart from Trump would keep the local rule in the “SDF” regions local selfrule.
And You dobt get thats not for the Kurds but for keeping Assads down in teritory as well as Fossils. Yur focus i wrong.
USA didnt come to Syria to install Kurds as some tiny little oilstate. Its easy in few words.
USAcould nor move Assads or reduce Assads by putting in other then Baathists in the goverment with vital refoms.
So You see solution 3. The incomptent and unvillingly for change Damaskus Regime should be reduced as much as possible by economics, destructions and important land(where oil and gas are).
This is a great USA succes.
None retreated or stopped digting just because USA retreated to half SDF. No way. Turks invanded instead and Assad and Russian now have ahands full there.
Evem the Russian oil, gas and Corona economy míght not like it. That goes for Turks and Iran too. They continue to kill each other very well with hardly any help from USA and Nato.
Yes, SDFs were second chois and did handle ISIS. ISIS cerainly has been decorated there too..
The best the U.S. could do is leave.
Basement warrior make himself big by criticizing a one statesman per hundred year like Putin? You dont have a clue about it all. You dont know what is behind.
Turks are more of a threat to the Greeks right now with their constant sorties into Greek Airspace.
USA has denied Kurds a plan like that as well as hardly no Kurds in the whole Syria support that.
You are a filthy liar of the worst kind.
Putting in Israel in this is same barking madness.
Your Putin version is same eveil dirt. Assads demanded YPG+J to clothe all acivity in Afrin and open all old Assad offices. Assad also wanted all weapons back apart from some few unless YPG+J became dog meat fighting like and with the most stupid armyy in the world.
Then Putin after years of negosiations said: Never mind. Less problems for Russsia if Syria is smaller.
You might be right about Turkey taking land. Another version could be – If we get Afrin and Jarablus up to river near Manbij, You can get Idlib and Al bab.
u believed the CIA when they told u there were wmds in Iraq
the stupidity of some here is spectacular—-Turkey would never challenge Russia …in all of history they have lost all wars except 2, due to help from UK…I’m certain the turks r aware of Ossetia, Abkhazia….the 5000 Russian troops on the Armenian/Turk border r fully weaponized to obliterate turkey…russia can destroy Turkey with nukes, missiles, superior naval and air forces…this is a silly conjecture….and NATO would never intervene…only an idiot believes they would….NATO won’t help them in Cyprus, Libya or Syria….these idiots keep losing soldiers, territory and bankrupting their economy ….without huge loans from Qatar, now w a contracting economy, the turks would likely be routed by the PKK, Syria and the LNA
This entire Idlib situation needs to be resolved ASAP.
Turkey is a NATO member and have the mandate to hit Russian interest in the Mediterranean…the same way when Turkish supported muslim terrorist in Bosnia, Macedonia,Albania, Kosovo to enable the destruction of Serbia and the Sprska republic by NATO forces!…Erdogan like Netanyahu are enemies of Russia despite smiles and hugs..the first one is an AntiRussia Ottomanist…the second one is a servant of the US military complex!…Russia know that the control of M4 from Latakia to Saraqib means the victory in the Syrian war…and also that Turkish&Allies will opposite…then Russia should strength and seek alliance with Greece and Armenia in order to stop Ottomanist dreams like Russian military did when they supported Armenia in Nagorno Karabaj and threated with a Nuclear response if Turkish troops would have invaded Armenia!…the Russian military and Historical interest has priority over few Rich Russian Jews Oligarchs and Business of some Russian companies in Turkey!..
I believe the next step is to force the teorrist to comply with that 6km buffer north of the m4,then see!
Putin’s instincts are always to avoid confrontation and bloodshed. Wether that is a good or bad thing is open to debate.
The Israelis planned and executed an operation that resulted in the friendly fire destruction of a Russian aircraft including the loss of a number of Russian servicemen. Putin’s reaction was, by comparison, almost mouse-like.
If that had been a U.S plane destroyed by, say Iranian action, under similar circumstances, do you think Trump would have invited Rouhani to the White House for pop tarts and coffee to discuss it?
Ultimately we do not know Putin’s mind or how he will react to given circumstances only that he is the President of Russia and he will act and respond in whatever way he personally sees is in the best regards for his people and his country.
It is not wise to ‘second guess’ him because, as we have seen, his responses are more often nothing like we expect.
the distinction between turkeys, Israeli, amerikans—barbariasns is that they enjoy geocoding civilians…an immediate invasion by Russia, Syria, Iran will not occur because some cultures cherish human dignity and life
Your mistaken. The US has suffered massive hits…over and over and over. And it’s reaction, especially for its so-called claim of being the only super power, have been more than ‘ mousy ‘.
Make a Bitchute account and post videos there
http://www.sott.net/article/434182
more evidence of amerikan incompetence and cowardice
What on earth is the point of this ceasefire? Just let Syria take back all of it’s country and end this war.
Erdogan dream of defeating Russia is a nightmare and suicide dream.Russia is having missile that can destroy a whole whole city.