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Erdogan seems to be replacing open confrontation with a softer approach, but the neo-Ottomanism revival agenda remains.
Written by Uriel Araujo, researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts.
Over the past month officials from both Ankara (Turkey) and Yerevan (Armenia) exchanged statements which signal a possible rapprochement between these two historical foes. But this is not all: Ankara in fact has been reaching out to quite a few different actors.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opened the prospects of starting talks with Yerevan, and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in his turn, has expressed his desire to begin negotiations: as a kind of a goodwill gesture, Yerevan has unilaterally opened its airspace for Turkish overflights between Azerbaijan and Turkey (Turkish airspace still remains closed to Armenian aircrafts). The two countries’ borders have been closed since the early 1990’s due to the conflict in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, claimed by both Armenia and Azerbaijan – in this case, Ankara supported the latter against the former even in the 2020 war.
Needless to say, such potential rapprochement would have a major impact on South Caucasus geopolitics – among other things, it would give Ankara better access to Azerbaijan. However, this process faces its challenges such as the mutual distrust between the two actors involved, for one thing.
Ankara will always place its national interest above their allie’s common goals. For example, while it seeks EU and NATO membership, it also supports the self-declared independent Northern Cyprus state, which goes to enhance Turkish position in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea – to the detriment of EU members Greece and Cyprus, of course. The same logic applies to other Turkish diplomatic endeavors.
Well, Armenian-Turkish talks are not the only instance of Ankara seeking reconciliation with its traditional foes. In May, for example, Turkey and Egypt had their first diplomatic high-level contacts after an eight-years-old break. Ankara also seems to have started a normalization path with the UAE, and even Saudi Arabia.
Two weeks ago, President Erdogan and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan had a phone conversation for the first time after a whole year. According to Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, other positive steps are being taken regarding normalizing diplomatic relations with the UAE. Of course, such won’t be an easy task.
What is behind this consistent recent shift? There are of course different goals in each particular case, but a new approach trend seems to be forming.
On June 15, President Erdogan and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev signed the Shushi Declaration, an agreement which includes many points, such as mutual defense guarantees, and economic cooperation. It emphasizes the so-called Zangezur corridor, which is to connect Azerbaijan and Turkey through the former’s western region. Azerbaijan has its own plans for being able to reach Iran, Armenia and the Nakhchivan region by railroads. Turkish-Armenian rapprochement talks should be seen in this light and thus may offer some risks to Yerevan.
One should also keep in mind that in January the foreign ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan issued a joint declaration in Islamabad focusing on enhancing their cooperation on defence, energy security, the environment, and other topics – with many ramifications. The highlight however goes to the military and geopolitical aspects of the agreement and its context.
For example, while Erdogan has given diplomatic support to Pakistan pertaining to the Kashmir issue, a recent tweet by the Pakistani embassy in Turkey detailed the schedule for a three-day event in Northern Cyprus to promote dialogue between Pakistan and northern Cypriots. Some thus have speculated Islamabad could recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which would be an enormous diplomatic win for Ankara in their efforts to secure some hold over an island that of course has great geostrategic importance in the Eastern Mediterranean,
While Pakistan is seeking allies to counter India, and Azerbaijan is trying to strengthen its position in the Caucasus region, Turkey, in its turn, seeks to increase its influence in the Caucasus and the Mediterranean as well as in the entire Middle East.
Next year shall mark the centennial of the Lausanne Treaty, which created today’s Republic of Turkey. A new constitution is being drafted to replace the current one (created in 1982) and it is supposed to put an end to the Ataturk era. What will come of this new Erdogan’s era? Only time will tell, but Turkey’s recent rapprochement policies in fact indicate its more ambitious plans for the whole Middle East region.
Erdogan thus seems to be changing his strategy of pan-Turkism and neo-Ottomanism revival from an open confrontation approach to a more tricky and soft one. Turkish hegemony in the South Caucasus and beyond remains his long-term goal.
R. T. Erdogan grew up in Kasımpaşa, Istambul. That place is well known for its mafiosi-style organisations. He vaunted himself, saying, if you can make it there, you can make it anywhere. His tactics are mafia-style, like that of other nations. Corrupt people, intimidate and, if necessary, sit with other mafia bosses to renegotiate terrains and booty. It’s basically that.
Quite some analytical piece. I’ll add a very important phenomenon that this writer misses, doesn’t know, or deliberately leaves out.
Many Muslims see Erdogan as a Mujaddid, though I’m not sure he qualifies for that position yet. A Mujaddid is a reformer with the power to impose some or all Islamic values at a time Muslims are corrupt or overpowered by the Kuffar and Hypocrites. Such reformers are of two types:
1. A person who has the military at his disposal – basically the leader
2. A person who influences the leader to such an extend as to have indirect control on the state. these are often Islamic scholars who have great public support.
If Erdogan is a Mujaddid, then he belongs to the first group – a leader with control over the military and security forces. Erdogan does have some features of a Mujaddid, but I don’t know whether he has the right guidance in terms of Aqeeda (beliefs).
It is time for a Muslim alliance. No Muslim country can take on the Christian world (Our biggest enemies and killers) alone. There’s need for some alliance in all fields – economy, military, security, political, and intellectual. An alliance of Muslim countries who share with each other with no strings attached. In short, a Muslim NATO.
Erdogan is looking to create such an alliance which will be led by Turkey. It’s not an imperialistic ambition like the corrupt Arab monarchies are claiming. Turkey is simply more qualified to lead such an alliance because they understand the Christian world (Our biggest enemies) better than any other Muslim country. But that doesn’t mean Turkey wants to dictate to the other Muslim countries.
This alliance has already got five “unofficial” members: Turkey, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Qatar, and Somalia. The next in line are Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Malaysia. Two other countries will partially (some forces) join: These are Syria and Libya. I expect this alliance to form before Erdogan’s rule ends in Turkey. Thus, we should be looking at an alliance of 11 Muslim countries by 2027.
Every Russian/Iranian policy towards Turkey is aimed at preventing such an alliance. Because it will deal a fatal blow to their dreams in Asia and the Middle East.
Erdogan has said that Turkey will be fully independent in weaponry by 2026. Thus, it’ll domestically produce everything from fighter jets, anti-aircraft systems, carriers, tanks, missiles, and all the engines for these platforms. Pakistan’s nukes will be enough for a nuclear umbrella. All that is required is for Turkey and allied Muslim countries to finance the expansion of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal to numbers sufficient enough to deter any nuclear threat or aggression. Turkey will take care of the conventional weaponry part.
In a nutshell, what this writer refuses to mention is that Russia is afraid of this alliance in the making and is doing everything to prevent its formation. Nargono-Karabakh was not just a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
First of all, India and China are not Christian. Secondly, Erdogan likes Shias and Iran and Iraq may also join that alliance. It is time for Chinese, Indians, Russians and French to support Armenians and Assyrians to cut this alliance in half.
Don’t get me wrong. Erdogan likes “some” Shiites. Generally, the Iranian Shiites are a problem for the Muslim world. They can’t see past their sectarianism and that’s why they can never be a part of any Muslim alliance. They have the unrealistic goal of taking Mecca and Madina from where they hope to control the Muslim world. The 5000+ Turkish troops in Qatar have two missions: 1) protecting Qatar, 2) Preventing Mecca and Madina from falling into the hands of Iran-backed Shiite fanatics in case of a civil war in Saudi Arabia. This could be the reason the Iranians have become very bitter at Turkey since 2017.
Turkey is not looking to genocide the Armenians as the West claims. No one is looking to genocide Christians – except ISIS (which is a Western creation and their tool).
All we want is to liberate Muslim lands from christian oppression. You are the oppressors not us. No Muslim army is in a christian land. But your soldiers are allover the place on Muslim lands.
THIS IS WHAT ERDOGAN IS TRYING TO DO.
Very wrong. Iran also supports Qatar. Turkey has disputes with the Saudis but Turkey mostly dislike Assad.
Christians are in Muslim lands because Christians are more advanced. Ottomans were in Christian lands many centuries ago though. And the Moroccans conquered Spain.
Why don’t you focus on liberating Western Armenia which legally belongs to Republic of Armenia based on Woodrow Wilson Aribtral award of 1920? Meanwhile, Pashynian is such a dumb ass weak sister..opening airspace to Turks to prepare for next war… finally you are right it was not Armenia vs Azerbajian.. It was Armenia vs Azerbaijan, Turkey, Pakistan, Israel and duped Syrian Jihadists…. Putin let it happen then finally stepped in…Iran, fully of Azeris was neutral but will pay for that as the Israelis now have bases on their northern border for the next Ziowar (fought with US goy blood and treasure, of course)
You should change your name to the “Idiotic One”!!!
Why u parasites from 3rd World Shitholecountries flee to Christian countries?
The normal Christian worker is paying for your flats kids and any kind of wellfare, while you are making Babies with your Sisters and Cousins!!!
You are polluting Europe with your trash, nobody wants u criminal rapists here, only the corporate global Mafia which Erdogollum is a part of, got this plan.
Your Sandpeople invaded north Africa, Middle East and Turkey where Christians lived hundreds of years before your Religion was even invented, your peacefull Religion raped, enslaved and genocided Christians. f… off you piece of dirty Scum!!!
It is you guys who have invaded the Muslim lands. And believe me you will pay a very heavy price for that – heavier than price you paid during the 11th century.
Europe doesn’t even have an army. You’ve only got Russia and America. These two are the backbone of Christiandom and at least one of them is in rapid decline. The tech gap is closing fast thanks to Turkey’s vigorous R&D projects in almost every field. Don’t worry. Afghanistan will soon look like a joke.
at “The Subjective”
Do know that Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Irak where real “Christian Land” 500years before Islam was invented, so who invaded/genocided who u fanatic braindead psycho!!!
Hagia Sofia u remember in Islam its forbidden to convert a church to a mosque!!!
Afghanistan became Muslim 200years ago not earlier, after Muslims invaded this lands.
Your the occupier and what are you doing in Europe??? parasiting from the Christian Labourclass u dirty filth!!!
Your beggers, rapists, thiefs, smugglers, drugdealers, criminals, parasites, liars, who use the mentally sick European Greens/Leftists Idiots for your occupation of Europe!!!
“Asylum, Asylum please Mama Merkel help, our Muslim society is so shitty that we all come to Europe, please pay, give me house, women and money or i will kill and bomb you!!!”
Let me ask you where do you live ??? but try to ask without lies!!!
This is reductionist logic.
These two are the backbone. Do you know that Germany will rise? Anyway, Russia, Europe, China, India, America and Brazil are much stronger than any Muslim power. You have Turkey, Iran, Indonesia, Pakistan and Egypt only. The others are not that strong.
Aĺlllah muhammad islam – the devils religion
How is it possible that niggers and muslims get asylum in europe
You sounds like paid troll from erdogan farm. Now is time to wake up and to make kebab for your white master.
” It is time for a Muslim alliance. No Muslim country can take on the Christian world (Our biggest enemies and killers) alone. ”
So you want another Vienna 1683 ?
Poles saved that day and ended the threat of the Barbarian Turk in Europe …. until a few years ago
No, we want you out of every single Muslim country.
Erdogan: the greatest dog of all time
Every dog has expiration date ))