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The Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) are going to establish 8 military bases in Syria’s Idlib province, according to the conservative Turkish daily newspaper Yeni Şafak.
“The Taftanaz Air Base and the Abu al-Duhur Military Airbase [in Syria’s Idlib province] are also two separate points that the TAF uses,” the daily writes.
According to the daily, the Syrian Arab Army’s largest garrison in the vicinity of the Deif region is now controlled by Turkish forces.
The TAF entered Syria’s Idlib province under a pretext of implemeting the de-escalation zones agreement reached by Tehran, Ankara and Moscow in the Astana talks on the Syrian conflict.
The Turkish military announced that it established the first observation post on October 13. Considerng that no clashes between the TAF and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) have been reported since then, it becomes clear that Turkey has some kind of deal with the terrorist group which is the most influential “opposition faction” in the province.
Does Assad have any idea on how to get them out, if ever?
Well, if Russia has no objections to Turks staying within Syria forever, they likely do not have any problems with the US staying forever too. And in the case of the US, the likelyhood of them leaving within a few years is very much larger.
Assad is not in a position to do much about it, as he kinda lacks the military force to deal with a NATO army. Hell, he has problems enough with a paramilitary army like ISIS and Al Qaida already.
I reckon Idlib is already a lost cause in the eyes of Damascus. It’s taking a lot of effort still to defeat ISIS, which is still capable of delivering nasty military surprises. They haven’t really begun to deal with the Jihadists in Idlib, of which there are now a hell of a lot more then ISIS fighters. And the Russians are not giving Assad a blank check to keep on fighting for him indefinitely. As far as the Russians are concerned they would rather that Assad makes a deal with the socalled ‘moderates’, and probably the SDF, rather then wage war for god knows how long. There is no reasoning with ISIS and Al Qaida, so they’ll support him against them, for the rest he’ll probably have to negotiate. Again, as far as the Russians are concerned they’ve secured their bases in Latakia, stabilized the regime and helped it secure most of the country, giving it a stable basis again. For the rest, if it means Assad has to negotiate to pacify the rest of the country, all the better as far as Moscow is concerned. Military interventions are not cheap. The Iranians probably would like more to happen, driving on into Idlib and maybe SDF territory too, but they kinda lack the airpower and other useful hardware that the Russians have. They’re kinda like what Otto van Bismarck said about the Italians in his time, they have a big appetite, but such poor teeth.
Sounds credible.
On the other hand, this leaves 2.5 points of contention between Turkey and Syria, which could flare up once, if ever, Syria has stabilised and recovered to some extent. (Azaz – 1, Idlib – 2, Hatay – 0.5)
True. But I reckon the priority list is A: ISIS first, B: try to let the SDF not grab as much, C: establish the Shia Crescent via Bukamal, D: safeguard Damascus, E: either grab some more land around Hama and Aleppo, or maybe Daraa , F: some of the other enclaves, G: retake Idlib and get rid of the Turks.
Of course the Turks offer the advantage to the regime that it puts pressure on the SDF as well. As the Kurds seem to be the only ones that Erdogan has in mind when he’s talking about dealing with terrorists.
I don’t know, but Idlib is a prime example of what regime change in Syria would have looked like. Islamist factions killing each other over petty (EAR-MUFFS) bullshit. If I was dictator of Syria I’d just build a wall between Idlib and the rest of the country. Or maybe an electric fence would be better… And have another one built on the border of the Golan area.
It does not suit Assad, the departure of the Turks from Syria at that time, my friend.
That emptiness will be immediately occupied by the evil Kurds and their americans sponsors to continue destabilizing and stealing more territories and resources from the country with the false pretext of always, to pretend to fight terrorists, in that case, terrorists from HTS of Al Qaeda, all to the service of the Americans.
Maybe that’s what is needed to clean the clocks of the YPG and it’s terrorist allies. I’m more interested in what happens afterwards. Syria is for Syrians and not terrorist colluding entities such as the YPG!!!
BHAHAHAAH kinda far away from Afrin more close to SAA lines and where they would go for to liberate HTS area.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.724775&lon=37.124519&z=12&m=b&show=/23217328/Abu-ad-Duhur-Military-Airbase
“..kinda far away from Afrin..”
Oh, I don’t know. Let’s see, Turkey on the north and Turkey on the south of Afrin; makes kind of a tasty sandwich don’t you think?
That military airbase is near al haidr more than afrin
“That…”
You mean Turkey is setting up 8 bases in one airbase? Like I said, what a tasty sandwich with Turkey as the bread and Afrin as the filling.
Preventing Assad from regaining control over that region.
No room in syria for turks in long term either. Get the fuck out!
After Syria is liberated, I agree, Turkey needs to go home. Right now, Turkey is the only one that can assist Syria in liberating itself from the traitorous US backed SDF, intent on dividing Syrian lands and giving the proceeds to foreigners. If Russia and the US were to go head to head, the world would cease to exist.
The Sultan once again under the delusion that Syria is part of his caliphate?
My friend, of two evils, the least worst is usually and always the wise choice.
If it were not for the Turkish presence, Idib would be the next obvious target of the treacherous Kurds, submissive servants of the damns Americans, to follow stealing territories and natural resources of Syria with the same and false pretext of fighting against their colleagues terrorists,
in that case would be the HTS filthy guys.
While while I do not trust and believe in the least in the Turks, they will always be welcome when it comes to taming Kurds.
My friend, of two evils the least worst is usually the best and wise choice.
If it were not for the Turkish army presence, Idib would be the next obvious target of the treacherous americans Kurds maids, to continue stealing territories and natural resources of the legitimate Syrian government, with the same false pretext of to be fighting against their terrorists colleagues, now in that case the HTS filthy guys.
while I do not trust and believe in the least in the Turks, they will always be welcomed extra officially in Syria, when it comes to taming and controlling Kurds,
And that, is well known and secretly accepted by the Syrian government and allies, especially Russia.
I dont think Turkey can enter syria by itself. Turkey was probably invited by russia to “tame” its proxies in idlib. I think main target is Afrin. There maybe a secret agreement between russia and Turkey to destroy the kurdish enclave by using the proxies in idlib, which can be only managed by Turkey. My question is: where have the saudi arabia/UAE’s proxies in idlib province gone all of a sudden? I can remember that few months ago, there were fighting between Turkish and Saudi Arabia’s proxies in the province.
Thank you, Putin!