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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose a “high tariff” after accusing New Delhi of imposing them on the import of certain American products. However, by imposing such tariffs, Trump will only force India to expand trade relations with Russia further, which will ultimately hurt the US much more than India in the decades to come.
“Reciprocal. If they tax us, we tax them the same amount. They tax us. We tax them. And they tax us. Almost in all cases, they’re taxing us, and we haven’t been taxing them,” Trump told reporters on December 18.
In answer to a question about a potential trade agreement with China, Trump said India and Brazil are among the countries that impose high tariffs on certain US products.
“The word reciprocal is important because if somebody charges us — India, we don’t have to talk about our own — if India charges us 100 per cent, do we charge them nothing for the same? You know, they send in a bicycle and we send them a bicycle. They charge us 100 and 200. India charges a lot. Brazil charges a lot. If they want to charge us, that’s fine, but we’re going to charge them the same thing,” Trump said at the news conference at Mar-a-Lago.
Incoming US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said “reciprocity” is going to be a key topic for the Trump administration, saying, “How you treat us is how you should expect to be treated.”
It is recalled that at a pre-election rally, Trump said, “India is a very big charger. We have a great relationship with India. But they probably charge as much.”
“India is a very big charger. We have a great relationship with India. I did. And especially the leader, Modi. He’s a great leader. Great man. Really is a great man. He’s brought it together. He’s done a great job. But they probably charge as much,” he said in October.
In fact, the President-elect even once described Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as “a friend of mine” and visited the South Asian country during his first term.
Yet, for all the platitudes and friendly talk, Trump, during his first term, imposed higher tariffs on Indian steel and aluminium, prompting retaliatory Indian duties on American products like almonds and apples. In 2019, Trump repeatedly claimed that India was the “tariff king” and imposed “tremendously high” tariffs on American products. He has also criticized India’s “big tariffs” on American paper products and the iconic Harley-Davidson bikes.
With Trump directly mentioning India, it is obvious that he will raise trade tensions again once he enters the White House next month.
Although Trump’s “reciprocity” tariffs could severely hurt Indian exports, making them less competitive in the US market, particularly affecting the IT and textile industries, tariffs will only push India to seek new opportunities, recalibrate its trade strategies and strengthen its economic fundamentals, just as Russia did when it became the most sanctioned country on earth following the special military operation in Ukraine.
Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow earlier this month that the friendship between their two countries was “higher than the highest mountain and deeper than the deepest ocean.”
His comments follow from Russia’s state oil firm Rosneft, which agreed to the country’s biggest-ever energy deal with India, Reuters reported on December 12. Reportedly, it is a 10-year agreement to supply 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day to Indian private refiner Reliance, a deal worth around $13 billion. It is recalled that In July, the South Asian country overtook China as Russia’s top oil buyer and is the world’s third-largest consumer of oil.
Over 700 business representatives attended the XV India-Russia Business Dialogue in Moscow on December 11. The event aimed to strengthen the strategic partnership between India and Russia, particularly in trade, high-tech industries, and other sectors. The forum also focused on increasing bilateral trade and fostering cultural exchanges.
The Indian Defence Minister’s visit to Moscow, the Rosneft-Reliance deal, and the XV India-Russia Business Dialogue were all just days before Trump announced his tariff threat on India. Evidently, Indian-Russian relations are deepening, having not only survived but strengthened during the onslaught of Western pressure for ties to be severed.
Although inroads have been made to strengthen India-US ties, the Biden administration failed to deter India from its relations with Russia. If Trump wages a trade war, India will gravitate more strongly towards Russia, a situation that will only reverse the inroads Washington has made to foster ties with New Delhi and self-deprecating, considering India is predicted to be the world’s third-largest economy by 2030.
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india needs a regime change. or better yet, a civil war!
agreed 100%
where is india’s military support to russia with a statement at the well of the unsc that “an attack on russia is an attack on india”?… ditto the prc who have been awol since the orange revolution in kiev since 2014 that have benefitted both in their oil purchases from russia!
china and india both enjoy russia and the usa spending ressources on each other.
what an opportune moment to clear the bench for the russian federation to call out the prc’s and india’s involvement in disappearing the debris from ground zero in manhattan after 9/11/2001 in exchange for american manufacturing and a revolving door to dual citizenship the u.$. while fighting a “war on terror”?…
and than… arguing that it is time for the briics to make a break from the western institutions that made the war on terror possible and that those who refuse to leave those western institutions are all guilty either directly or by “proxy” for the world economic crisis holding them hostage through terror that they are and have been living in since 2001!
there is much more money to earn with the west then russia. so china and india will both in the end if forced the choose chose the us side. the only exception would be if the usa are stupid enough to go against china before russia is defeated.
… you meant there is much more frozen money in western banks that have been stolen from russia!… prc and india will remain on the fence. especially when they have so many dual national(s) in the u.$., uk and eu.
what all 3 fail to realize is what potential they will have collectively if they detach completely from the western un/imf/opec/world bank and begin their own institutions under the rubric of briics… continuing to remain in their own pool(s) of self interest will begin wwiii regardless…. and russia is delusional if they believe that money frozen in western banks will be returned to them!
better at this point to come together collectively as “one” and dump “all” of their remaining holding(s) in $usd and announce together that they will be leaving the un at the start of 2025. than watch the nuclear detonation of the $usd and it’s markets!… wwiii is coming regarldess. but if r, i, c in the briics does something like that to destabilize the u$ monetary system it could be so debilitating that it would buy them and the rest of the world more not less time.
they won’t like that. course the pro russian media’s will be loving trump now for a change won’t they
le sanzioni l’europa non ha niente materie prime non può sanziona a livello finanziario bloccare lo swift è una cosa stupida i pagamenti internazionali si possono fare facilmente dappertutto anche in piccoli paesi con poche strutture ce lo hanno insegnato gli arabi nel 7 secolo il sistema si chiama hawala utilizzatelo e tanti saluti allo swift e a chi lo usa. saluti