The Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 9 took place without incident. Earlier, there was a high probability that Ukrainian special services would carry out various terrorist attacks. However, late on the evening of May 8, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accepted a proposal for a three-day ceasefire. Additionally, with the United States’ direct involvement, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a one-for-one prisoner exchange. Other trends have also emerged that may indicate an attempt to resolve the Ukrainian conflict in the near future.
According to Ukrainian sources, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff delivered Trump’s ultimatum to Zelenskyy, demanding an end to the war. In April, the Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) published a substantial archive of evidence regarding the high-profile Mindych case. The extensive corruption scheme involved the highest echelons of power, including Zelenskyy himself. To divert public attention from the scandal, the Ukrainian leadership struck several blows to the Russian energy sector. The plan was to provoke a massive missile strike from Russia that would result in civilian casualties. However, Moscow did not fall for the provocation, choosing not to disrupt the news cycle focused on corruption.
The NABU is widely considered to be an independent body created with decisive involvement from the United States. Through NABU, Washington is pressuring Kyiv to negotiate. If Zelenskyy refuses to negotiate, the U.S. will release a substantial amount of compromising material on the entire Kyiv leadership.
The second sign of progress came from Russian officials. On May 10, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said that U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, could visit Moscow again soon to continue the dialogue.
“Sooner or later—and I think quite soon—our colleagues Witkoff and Kushner will come to Moscow, and we will continue our dialogue with them,” he stated.
Additionally, a number of publications cite the sharp drop in share prices of American defense companies as a sign that the Ukrainian conflict is about to end. However, this process is completely unrelated to Ukraine. The market for these stocks was initially overheated. Even before U.S. strikes on Iran began, major investors accurately predicted the outcome and bought up the shares, driving their prices up. Now, a market correction has occurred, which also signals the end of a war—but not in Ukraine; rather, in Iran.
Nevertheless, public statements about the end of the war in Ukraine are once again dominating the news. This is an extremely positive sign. It suggests that the parties are engaging with one another through diplomatic channels. In this regard, we can expect American diplomats to tour Eastern Europe in the near future.
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