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On the morning of February 28, Israel launched a large-scale air campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran with the support of the United States. From that moment on, the conflict in the Persian Gulf region began to escalate exponentially. Previously neutral countries, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Oman, were drawn into the conflict. There is a significant likelihood that the conflict will widen and draw in new participants.
The Persian Gulf is one of the world’s most oil-rich regions. The situation there has always directly impacted the global economy. Since the conflict began over the weekend, global stock markets have not yet reacted, but oil prices are highly likely to soar on Monday. A war between Israel, the U.S., and Iran could have serious global consequences. Regardless of the outcome, the global geopolitical landscape will never be the same.
The Thunder in the Gulf
The start of military operations came as no surprise to most analysts. Over the past few months, the Pentagon has been building up its air and naval forces in Persian Gulf countries. In terms of the ratio of forces and resources involved, the current conflict is comparable to Operation Desert Storm during the U.S. invasion of Iraq, except for the lack of a ground component. Up to one-third of all U.S. combat aircraft have been deployed to the region, supported by two aircraft carrier strike groups. US-Iranian negotiations turned out to be fiction, merely a distraction to lull Tehran into a false sense of security. To some extent, this strategy was successful.
The first aerial bombs exploded over Iran early Saturday morning, February 28. For Jews, Saturday is the day of rest, so the leadership of the Islamic Republic did not expect any active operations. The element of surprise was 100% effective. With American support, the Israelis bet on destroying Iran’s leadership to disrupt its armed forces. Up to 30 bombs were dropped on the residence of the head of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Iranian leader was killed as a result of the strike.
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The armed forces’ command structure was also partially decimated. Reports indicate that the headquarters of the country’s armed forces were destroyed by airstrikes. The following individuals were killed in targeted strikes:
- Major General Seyed Abdolrahim Mousavi, chief of staff of the armed forces
- Lieutenant General Mohammad Pakpour, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
- Admiral Ali Shamkhani, senior military advisor and secretary of the National Security Council
- Major General Aziz Naserzadeh, Minister of Defense.
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Several lower-ranking Iranian officials are reported to have been killed in the airstrikes. Among them is former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Some relatives of various officials were also killed or seriously injured.
Following the initial phase of the operation to eliminate Iran’s leadership, the allies began systematically destroying key military facilities. They targeted air defense positions, headquarters, communications centers, and military airbases.
The U.S. Air Force’s strategic bomber fleet was also involved in the strikes on Iran. On the night of March 1, six B-2 Spirit bombers, accompanied by KC-46 tanker aircraft, flew nonstop across the Atlantic from Whiteman Air Force Base to Iran and back. The strikes targeted underground uranium enrichment plants and other facilities related to the nuclear program. Ballistic missile production facilities were also attacked. The GBU-31(V)3/B Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) bomb, based on the BLU-109/B penetrating bomb, was used.
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The Iranian naval base in Konarak, located on the coast of the Gulf of Oman, has sustained significant damage. Satellite images reveal three sunken warships. They are likely Jamaran-class frigates.
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There were also casualties among the civilian population. Up to 160 people may have died in a strike on a girls’ primary school in southern Iran. Media reports state that 140 children’s bodies have been recovered from the rubble of the school in Minab so far. The school was hit by a missile during the morning bombardment. According to the city prosecutor, another 100 people were injured. Iran’s foreign minister called the incident a war crime and a violation of the UN Charter.
Clearly, the Islamic Republic was not prepared for such a large-scale military operation. The country’s leaders and key military figures did not organize their security, resulting in their deaths. The armed forces were also caught off guard and suffered serious losses of radars, air defense systems, missile launchers, and warships. Not a single combat aircraft has been shot down by Iranian missiles to date. The allies’ air force has established complete air superiority. However, to the surprise of many, this was only the beginning, not the end.
Did not fall
Despite suffering heavy losses on the first day of the conflict, Iran demonstrated its ability to respond in a serious manner. Most countries would have been defeated by such losses, but the Islamic Republic proved to be much stronger than it appeared at first. Successors to the deceased leaders were appointed fairly quickly. This suggests that the Iranians had prepared for such an outcome in advance.
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi took over as the country’s supreme leader. He was a close associate of Khamenei and shares his methods and approaches to governing the state. A new commander of the IRGC has also been appointed. Ahmad Vahidi will replace the late Mohammad Pakpour.
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Clearly, other senior officials have either already been replaced or will be in the near future. These changes in personnel indicate that the Iranian state system is much more resilient than it seems. The elimination of top-level leaders has not caused the system to collapse. Furthermore, Israel’s and the US’s actions have essentially stirred up a hornet’s nest, affecting all countries in the region.
From the beginning of hostilities, the Iranian armed forces have launched retaliatory strikes. Initially, they targeted US forward bases in Oman, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Jordan. Israel was also subjected to massive missile strikes.
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Iran launched missiles and drones that struck the U.S. Fifth Fleet base in Manama, Bahrain; the port of Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates (UAE); and Duqm in Oman. The French naval base in Abu Dhabi was also targeted. Infrastructure at US air bases in Al Udeid, Al Dhafra, Al Salem, Sheikh Isa, and Muwaffak As-Salty was also hit.
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In addition to military targets, cities in the Gulf region were hit as well. Videos of Iranian missiles and drones falling in Dubai, Doha, and other Arab capitals are circulating online. The strikes hit residential buildings, airports, and shopping centers.
Open sources provide conflicting information about Iran’s main lever of pressure on the global economy: the Strait of Hormuz. Some media outlets report that this vital shipping route has been blocked, while others deny this. However, there are a number of undeniable facts. Iran has attacked three U.S. and British tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping in this area has been suspended indefinitely.
Statistics on Iranian strikes:
- Cyprus: 2 missiles
- Oman: 3 drones
- Bahrain: 45 missiles and nine drones
- Iraq: Unknown number; seven reports of volleys over Erbil
- Israel: 200+ missiles and 12+ drones
- Jordan: 13 missiles and 36 drones
- Kuwait: “Many missiles” and two or more drones
- Qatar: 66 missiles
- Saudi Arabia: 0–2 missiles/drones
- Syria: 1+ missile
- UAE: 140 missiles and 270 drones
- As of February 28 and part of March 1, the total is at least 465 missiles and 357 drones.
There have been serious rocket attacks reported across Israel, the main instigator of the war. Several rockets reportedly hit residential buildings, killing civilians. Various infrastructure facilities have also been targeted, including the Port of Haifa.
Despite its isolation, Iran is demonstrating that it has leverage over the international community. Additionally, despite the allies’ complete air superiority, the Iranians are maintaining their combat potential. Thus, at this stage of the conflict, the two sides remain relatively equal. To gain a deeper understanding of the issue and make forecasts about the duration of the conflict and possible consequences, it is first necessary to consider the parties’ goals.
Strategic view
First, we should consider the goals of the initiators of the conflict: Israel and the United States. During a press conference, President Donald Trump stated that one reason for launching the operation was to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons within the next two weeks. Previously, the stated reason was to suppress protests in the Islamic Republic. Although the leaders of both countries said that the Iranian people should take power into their own hands, this does not seem to be a realistic goal in reality. Trump and Netanyahu certainly won’t object if this happens, but it seems they have no illusions about it. Washington’s main goal is to resume the nuclear deal on its own terms and, ideally, get Iran to abandon its nuclear and missile programs completely. The White House wants to return to the nuclear deal with new leadership that, if not more moderate, will at least be more fearful. Otherwise, there will be a new wave of assassinations.
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In 2025, Tel Aviv employed a similar strategy against its longtime adversary, the Lebanese Shiite organization Hezbollah. First, they killed its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, then his successor, and then his successor’s successor. It is highly likely that the same tactic will be used against Iran.
It’s important to understand that Iran cannot defeat the U.S. and Israel in the traditional sense. The regime’s task is to simply withstand the blow without suffering critical losses or losing power. It must also inflict as much damage as possible in return, primarily economic damage. This is their most important lever of retaliatory pressure: making war expensive for the US and the global economy so that they are forced to retreat without achieving their goal of overthrowing the regime.
That is why Tehran is all in. Strikes on civilian targets make no military sense. However, politically, they have an extremely serious impact. The Gulf monarchies are accustomed to comfortable, measured lives thanks to high oil revenues. The United Arab Emirates has become one of the world’s financial centers and attracts millions of tourists every year. Dubai is considered a safe haven for multibillion-dollar capital. The governments of these countries rely entirely on the U.S. for protection against the Iranian threat.
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Iran now completely rejects this thesis. The Americans have failed to provide adequate protection for their allies in the Middle East. The explosions and fires in cities are clear evidence of this failure. The loss of “safe haven” status for Arab countries in the Persian Gulf poses a significant threat. This will reduce the investment attractiveness that allows governments to earn billions of dollars. This is causing a serious rift in relations between the U.S. and the Gulf countries. There is a significant possibility that the monarchs will leverage their influence over the White House to end the conflict as soon as possible.
Blocking the Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s second trump card. Most of the world’s shipping companies have reportedly suspended operations in the area. If the conflict continues for more than a week, it will disrupt hydrocarbon supply chains for recipients around the world. Insurance premiums for tankers will increase significantly. A shortage of oil on world markets will lead to higher prices and, consequently, inflation in most consumer countries. Even close US allies may condemn Washington’s actions and turn to other suppliers, such as Russia.
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Heads or tails?
If Iran holds out, the allies will have to scale back their air operations. This would prove that, without ground intervention, the Islamic Republic will not abandon its nuclear and missile programs. This scenario could play out, as China has begun to support Tehran. A Chinese Navy reconnaissance ship has been sent to the Arabian Sea. Additionally, Beijing is providing the Iranians with intelligence, including satellite images. This explains why the strikes on US military targets have been relatively effective.
For China, the Islamic Republic is a key partner. Beijing is critically dependent on Iranian oil imports; without them, the Chinese economy could face serious challenges. China has already lost Venezuela as a source of hydrocarbons and simply cannot afford to lose a second key supplier. Otherwise, there can be no question of confronting the US on equal terms.
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The allies do not rule out the possibility of an unsuccessful air operation. Donald Trump’s agreement to Iran’s proposed negotiations on March 1 confirms this. He announced this at his press conference. It is more profitable for Washington to reach an agreement now than to spend billions of dollars on military action. The U.S. president may already be being pushed in this direction by his colleagues from the Arab Gulf states. If so, Iran will emerge victorious from the confrontation, and the Islamic Shiite world will gain a powerful leader who repelled a global nuclear superpower.
If Iran loses the war, the balance of power in the world will change dramatically. China will be the first to lose out for the aforementioned reasons. Losing Tehran as an ally would seriously undermine the Chinese economy and could lead to defeat in the race with the US for total world domination. Meanwhile, Washington will gain control over most of the planet’s hydrocarbon resources and be able to dictate its terms to many countries. This aligns with the Trump administration’s slogan, “Make America Great Again,” and their global confrontation with Beijing.
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However, losing Iran as a common enemy could seriously undermine the unity of the Gulf monarchies. A similar situation occurred with the dissolution of the Soviet Union: NATO gradually became more divided because there was no longer a common threat. Whether Washington will be able to maintain unified control over the oil market in the face of this loss of unity remains to be seen.
Russia is currently benefiting from the ongoing conflict. As oil supplies are interrupted, sales of Russian hydrocarbons will increase and fill the budget. If Tehran holds out, Moscow will not have another hotbed of instability on its southern border. If the regime falls, China will be forced to buy oil and gas from Russia at world prices rather than at a significant discount as it does now. In general, Beijing will become dependent on Moscow to a certain extent, which plays into Russia’s hands.
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The duration of this conflict depends on many factors. After two days, it is too soon to say that Iran is losing this war. However, the extent of the Islamic Republic’s strength remains unknown. Outwardly, the situation appears challenging yet manageable for the Iranian leadership. Given the operation’s short preparation time, it’s reasonable to conclude that the US and Israel do not expect prolonged hostilities. It is highly likely that the confrontation will last no more than ten days. This time limit is due to the finite supply of ammunition, including that for air defense systems. This also applies to Iran.
Overall, the fate of global processes will be decided within the next two weeks. The war over Iran will determine the fate of the world’s leading powers. The outcome of this confrontation will influence the course of world history for years to come.
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