The Fat Lady Hasn’t Sung

The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung

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The war is won but it is not over – nor will it be for some time. The Fat Lady hasn’t sung.

Written by Julian Macfarlane. Originally published on March 13, 2024

This article seems to have a mind of its own – going beyond past events and happenings to look at the bigger picture against which the probabilities of future events and happenings define themselves.

It deals with both Putin’s Address to the Federal Assembly and Biden’s State of the Union speech— not so much of what they say. More of what they mean!

The State of the Union speech defines US policy up until Trump takes office next year, maybe longer, since even if the Donald decides to change gears, tactically —so to speak—that does not necessarily mean him changing direction strategically – the road having already been chosen by the Deep State.

As we’ve seen before, Trump is a large frog sitting on a lily pad in the Swamp. Where would he go if there was no Swamp? The frog eats bugs. And where do the bugs come from? You guessed it – the Swamp. Forget draining it.

In the case of Putin, he has already calculated what the Americans will do under Biden – since the Dodderer-in-Chief is too old to change his ways.

Trump? Who knows? He changes from moment to moment.

Russian objectives

No matter, Russia’s objectives are now pretty clear. They include the creation of “Novorossiya”—which will include all of eastern and southern Ukraine including much of the west bank of the Dnieper, as well as Odessa and Transnistria.

Right now, the pace of the war is slow – and will remain so. The Russians could arguably end the conflict right now if they really, really wanted to— but they don’t.

As time goes on, Ukrainians lose more and more men and equipment – and the US and NATO spend more and more money on support for Ukraine—weakening themselves.

Of course, it is true that American “aid” really goes to aid American defense industries with their evermore complex and expensive projects – in the end impractical in terms of any real war.

That cannot continue forever.

Getting and spending

One of the takeaways from my special article is this.

The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung

Notice the huge increase in the Russian budget expenditures but the slightly bigger increase in revenues.

At the same time Russian debt has decreased from about 18% to just over 10% of GDP—almost all of it internal debt.

American debt is about 124% of GDP up this year by 2% – but 95% is external.

In other words, the US is vulnerable to external financial shock. Living on borrowed money. Therefore, living on borrowed time.

Right now, Uncle Sam is financing is weapons industry by borrowing, using the reserve status of the dollar. If there’s a global economic crisis, most Americans will be in deep doo-doo.

Russia, on the other hand, is well-positioned to withstand a global economic crisis.

While you might assume that most of Russia’s expenditures are going to defense spending, they are not – the money is mostly being spent on social improvements – infrastructure, education, healthcare, vocational training– and of course rebuilding its new / old territories in the Ukraine with great improvements.

In fact, in the event of a global economic crisis, Russia may actually profit.

The Envy Thing

People in Western Ukraine can only envy the progress that the Russian Federation is making and the lifestyles they enjoy.

Many Ukrainian kids taken in by the Russians and then repatriated were reportedly unhappy about going home. They say they had much better lives in Russia (according to the Ukrainians themselves).

Dissident Americans who visit Russia are also envious— at least, of some things.

No country is perfect, of course— every culture has pros and cons.

Let’s just say the US, perhaps more than any other country, resists the idea of fundamental change – even though it desperately needs a “New Deal” in social and material infrastructure – education, healthcare, transportation, and so on.

The country is divided. It is falling apart like its political parties. .

Sucking the blood out of the German economy to pay for a war in Ukraine and genocide in the Middle East merely accelerates national disintegration.

America could learn a lot from Russia. But no American university offers a course in common sense.

So it is that while Americans talk about high-quality, affordable housing , Russians build it.

Russia is rising…

Evidence is the speed with which Russian “Occupied Ukraine” is recovering.

The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung

Subsidies will be provided for housing construction, urban area development and repairs of water supply facilities, power networks and maritime and road infrastructure.

The development of the Free Economic Zone established in the new regions will be an important instrument to support the investors. The FEZ offers preferences including tax incentives and lower insurance fees until December 31, 2050.

When was the last time, your government did anything useful for you?

Military Progress

For the US, might makes right – and since 1945 the Russians have always been under threat since the Americans, like the British and the Germans before them, don’t quite see the Russians as human. Putin calls Russophobia racism and he’s right.

So, the Russians now are also building a new 21st Century military taking advantage of the SMO is a test ground.

Western militaries are trained for lightning wars using the most advanced technologies available. Inevitably, however, military training in the West looks back to World War II or even earlier. And the West mostly loses.

Putin so far mostly wins. He studied judo and combat Sambo, which is in many ways like the jujitsu from which judo evolved. In the martial arts adaptability is the key to victory. So too, on the battlefield,

Advanced air defense systems, drones, electronic warfare devices and other innovations have revolutionized warfare. Artillery still rules. But tank to tank warfare is an anachronism. Air supremacy is limited by air defense systems.

The Russians learn from their mistakes. NATO does not. Maybe that’s because their entire war is a mistake? And the system behind it is a mistake too.

NATO has one rule – when shit hits the fan— blame the fan. Maybe two rules — one must also obey the teachings of God—still an old guy but living in the White House. Don’t eat the Apple — knowledge of good and evil.

The Russians follow KISS. Keep It Simple Stupid.

In other words, use whatever works and upgrade it. Don’t waste money – don’t waste lives.

Tanks—but no tanks

While Western commentators diss the new Armata Tank, it is generally considered the most advanced tank in the world.

Western media like Newsweek, CNN, Business Insider, and especially Forbes disagree.

“No!”, they say, “the” Russians had planned for over 2000 of these tanks by 2025 but, no, it will likely be 50, mostly as demonstrators for export customers.” And they sneer — “this is why the Russians are losing.”

The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung

Then they say that the Russians are winning.

Journalistic dissonance? A new term for an old thing. Stupidity.

The Russians have good reasons not to push development of this tank despite its technological superiority – namely they don’t need it—not when they still have a lot of upgraded T72s, T80s, and T90s which are not only cheaper but also easier to produce. Similarly, they don’t need to buy a lot of SU 57 Stealth fighters, which have only recently achieved GEN 5.0 status.

In either case, they don’t face any of the kind of challenges that might require these somewhat pricier equipment.

In addition, unlike the Americans, the Russians don’t put into service military tech like the F 35, which is still only 50% operable– despite being the most expensive fighter project in history,

The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung

Su 57 developed to carry hypersonic weapons

The Russians do not throw away money in the defense sector like Americans do – but that’s because defense contractors work for the government in Russia not the other way around as in the US.

The Slow War

Right now, the Russians are taking their time in the Donbas, taking one village at a time, and testing new weapons such as the FAB-1500.

The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung

This bomb is typical of Russian military pragmatism. Russia had lots of old Soviet bombs of different sizes. Dumb bombs. up 9000 kg!

So, why not make them Smart? Add wings. And a simple, if not rudimentary guidance and targeting systems.

The Russians have to be careful with these bombs to avoid the kind of indiscriminate destruction for which the Americans are famous. There is a moral issue— but it’s also pragmatic.

Right now, the Russians are focused, on towns and villages that are also railway and road hubs— infrastructure that they need – intact.

For the Ukrainians to use a web of villages as fortresses and bases, they need to be able to supply them.

The viability of what I call the Maginot Grid therefore lies in logistics.

Which are important to the Russians too since if they control those connecting railways and roads they can use them for the rapid transport of all kinds of men and materiel.

For example, the value of Bakhmut increases immensely if the Russians can control the railway hub at Chasov Yar and and similar infrastructure in nearby towns.

So, they need to be a wee bit careful with those big bombs.

In a few months I would expect the Russians to expand their zone of control northwards in both the West and the East. With full control of the road and railway network they will be in a better position to mount operations into Western Ukraine.

But will they?

Are the Nazis hiding troops ?

John Helmer has a source who thinks Ukrainians are keeping their best troops and substantial reserves in Western Ukraine to fight off the Russians there. They are undoubtedly trying to maintain reserves but, at the same time, they must expend some of them in the Donbas, along with valuable equipment – tanks and air defense systems and the like.

Donbas was their Maginot. Which is why Russia put the fear of God into the Ukrainians when it laid siege to Kiev in 2022 – even without the forces to actually take the city. They showed they could bypass Kiev’s primary defense line.

When France’s Maginot defense fell, the rest of the country fell too. It was partly a matter of perception.

I suspect the same thing will happen with Ukraine. The Russians don’t want to invade Western Ukraine; they want Ukrainians to surrender – unconditionally – as the Japanese did in 1945— during the worst. Again, a matter of perception.

The Russians have made a point of neutralizing Ukrainian air defense systems all over the Ukraine. At some point— although not yet – they will be able to use heavy bombers, with FAB bombs of all kinds, including ones bigger than FAB 1500s –as well as their missile systems. Even if the Ukrainians have forces in reserves, they will be vulnerable.

But I suspect the forces in place are hardline Nazis who keep the locals in line. I doubt they have the cojones to stand and fight if the Russians were to mount a full theater attack aiming at a knockout blow. Far better, to do what Ukrainian Nazis did in 1945 and move to Canada.

Don’t expect the Russians to end the war anytime soon though. That would take the pressure off NATO, Europe, and the US —and Russia needs to keep the pressure on until the Empire to destroy itself and the world frees itself from its claws.

Go to Substack to read more articles and support the author.

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jens holm

the whole pamplet is one big joke.

lower debt here fx cover aktivity in and out. in danish: if you do nothing, you spend less money. it seemes to be so in for russia.

the next trick might be less hospitals and more are kept good health or early death save a lot of pension

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Bessmertnyi

you seem to love big jokes, as you are here every day and night reading, commenting (and spamming)

jens holm

its true i follow things well compare and conclude better.

if think it began as a boy scout. all had to listen others – high and low and young and wold.

thats the basic for democatic leadership. leaders becomes much better, when they know whats going on in axpext and decidings.

jens holm

workers produce much better in good inviroments and bemoes better as well. even its not their company. they also well well even the boss in not there. they accept now and then are underpressure.

its correct we in denmark are open in commucation and often are very honest by jokes in pictures.

jens holm

fx the putin election with 87,5% of the votes is the king any child can see no real clothe on( by hans christian andersen. sometimes the ugly ductling named ukraine later on can become a nice swan even for the russians.

Name

you are one big joke on this site. a clown. no one reads your bullshit we just put a dislike and move on.

Saxon

i am dumber joke than holm cuz it a senile insecure moron—i am genetically inferior—holm is intellectually culturally inferior to russian

Pass me a barf bag

oh, jesus…you’re a boor. a pompous ignoramus of a boor who supports obnoxious ukrainian fascists and tries to sprinkle fairy dust on them to create something they never were and will never be.

Bezmertnyi Polk

democatic ? like your dictator zelenski who prohibited free elections because he knows he would lose even for his sacked general? ! ah i see

Pass me a barf bag

nasty neocons overthrew a democratically elected president in 2014 using fascist thugs and murderers (heavenly hundred anyone?) and then declared ukraine’s brave fight for democracy something they must support and much of the west fell for it, hook, line and sinker.

sounds beyond stupid, something no westerner would ever support, right?

but they did and how. so, get lost little jens, you and your phony western values. they’re a figment of your imagination. the creation of sick minds .

Last edited 2 months ago by Pass me a barf bag
ARGAN

ok, you little whining satanic jew. you khazars are big time losers. russia and the global south are rising.

Icarus Tanović

this omelet maybe? you fool.

Shaman

the senile moron holm more anxious desperate—the inferior species self humiliation

sansara

this new guided bombs will be a game changer. big time

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jens holm

it might be the only one for show only.

Icarus Tanović

what a bomb is that.

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Dstroj

“to do what ukrainian nazis did in 1945 and move to canada.”

and canada is a far stupider country for sheltering nazi pigs and their idiotic spawn…

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Orson Cart

don’t forget canada is not really a country. until 1967 it was still a ‘dominion’ and even now is effectively ruled by an unelected privy council which reports to hm king charles. the only reason canada still exists as a nation is because it has a vote at the united nations which is always cast in support of its masters, both the other side of the atlantic and south of the border.

Apocalypto

canada only was forced to recognize the rights of its french-speaking population when threatened by civil war.

now canada will learn what would have happened to it had it not recognized those rights by watching what happens to ukraine. live and learn, canadian swine. and you, freeland – you little spawn of nazi swine. watch extra carefully, watch your grandpa’s dreams go up in smoke and ashes and call it karma.

JGarbo

note on f35. latest gao report: f35 fleet is <1.0% "full mission capable", ie 99.4% of f35s *cannot* do the jobs required. the usaf has no real air force.

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huhe

as long as f35 are used as one way nuclear bombers, they can do the job perfectly. they were designed this way from the beginning.

jull

what the point of the article, except saying trump is a jerk

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huhe

this war is not about weapons. it is mainly information war and russia lost it. imho russia has 1000 years history there, long before it become “ukraine”. the russian language was there when america was a land where people were monkeys climbing the tries. but russia failed to sell this information to the west.

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huhe

public opinion is that ukraine was beautiful and prospering democracy, especially after the maidan coup and bad and evil russia decided to grab that beautiful land and now they want to invade europe.
i don’t know why russian voted 86 percent for putin but putin failed miserably as long as he considered western elites are reasonable and called them “partners”. we told him 1000 times. these are not your friends, they want to kill all slavs, starting with russia. but putin=deaf and dumb.

Shaman

because inferior amerikan and morons holm jens have no soul they cannot comprehend russian unity—our optimism and unity increases due to the impotent sanction—you incompetents guarantee that 5 oblasts former ukraine now russia—

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Last edited 2 months ago by Shaman
Yuri from govnarevka

poko molo arskansas trailer park.

Антон

internal state debt of russia, it’s not 12 or even 10, but near 2,5%. 53 bln, which include external debt itself (33 bln in obligations) and state guaranties on external debts of other subjects (19 bln).

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Last edited 2 months ago by Антон
Антон

should to notice about internal state debt of russia, it’s not 12 or even 10, but near 2,5% of gdp — 53 148,9 millions in us dollars at 1 march 2024 according to the ministry of finances. gdp by exchange rate is 2215 billions (2022). 53:2215 = 0,024 or 2,4%.

Антон

liberal economists loves to add rest kinds of debts, such as debt of private companies or internal, domestic debts of state and administrations of regions to make total debt bigger and not so contrasting with tremendous numbers of eu, us and japan – regimes heavily sympathized by liberals. but in reality state debt is 53 bln, which include external debt itself (33 bln in obligations) and state guaranties on external debts of other subjects (19 bln).