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Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst
The geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe has gone through numerous shifts in the last 30+ years, ranging from massive Soviet military presence to near-complete demilitarization that reached its peak in the late 1990s/early 2000s. Ever since, but particularly after Poland joined NATO, the course has slowly but steadily reversed. However, while the process was incremental up until early 2022, since then, it has escalated to almost unimaginable levels. Warsaw’s ambitions to build perhaps the most powerful ground force in the European Union are not only an expensive endeavor, but also an extremely dangerous one.
Namely, the plan to acquire massive amounts of weapons from the United States and its vassals and satellite states, particularly South Korea, includes a plethora of systems, the purpose of which can hardly be described as anything but offensive. Since last year, Poland announced it will acquire 250 US-made “Abrams” main battle tanks (MBTs), hundreds of HIMARS and “Chunmoo” multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), K9 self-propelled 155 mm howitzers, up to 50 FA-50 trainer/light combat aircraft, as well as 1000 K2 tanks, 820 of which are projected to be produced in Poland. Warsaw also plans to procure at least 32 F-35 fighter jets.
It’s worth noting that, apart from “Abrams”, HIMARS and F-35, all of the aforementioned weapon systems are South Korean, (in)famous for their extreme cost. For instance, the K2 stands at a staggering $8.5 million apiece, making it one of the most expensive MBTs in the world. In fact, it’s so expensive that South Korea, whose economy is almost three times larger than that of Poland, approved mass production for K2 only after Poland announced its intention to acquire them. Even Turkey, which has an economy that’s approximately 20% larger than Warsaw’s, plans to procure no more than 100 “Altay” MBTs (these are essentially a licensed copy of K2).
Poland’s military spending currently stands at 3.9% of GDP, nearly twice that of NATO’s 2% requirement. For comparison, Germany is spending less than 1.5% of its GDP on the military, even though its economy is well over six times larger. In addition, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak just announced that Warsaw plans to deploy at least 10,000 soldiers to the Polish-Belarussian border, further reinforcing the notion that the militarization of Poland is escalating to proportions never seen since the early 1980s. In the last several years, Warsaw announced its intention of nearly doubling the number of active troops to 300,000 (currently, there are over 160,000).
According to South Front, in the last few months, the 12th Mechanized Division and the 11th Armored Division of the Polish Land Forces were transferred from the German border to the area of Bialystok and Biala Podlaska. And at the end of July, their forward command posts and field communication centers were deployed near these cities. In turn, the 18th Mechanized Division was urgently transferred from near Rzeszów to the area of Bielsk-Podlaska. Thus, Poland deployed three divisions on the border with Belarus, specifically in the area between Grodno and Brest. It should be noted that these divisions are all fully equipped for offensive military operations.
At the moment, it’s estimated that up to 15,000 soldiers, several hundred tanks, artillery and missile systems, and several thousand combat vehicles are deployed in areas close to the Belarussian border. This also includes the redeployment of military aircraft and airborne troops, both of which are considered offensive assets. Having such forces in the area shows that Warsaw’s belligerence toward Minsk is bound to escalate further. This is particularly true when considering the fact that Poland actively took part in attempts to destabilize Belarus in the last several years, including by providing logistics and Intelligence support to various foreign-backed groups within the country.
On the other hand, Belarus is not sitting idly. On the contrary, its Ministry of Defense just confirmed that a five-day training exercise for its Ground Forces, including assault and airborne brigades, is being conducted in Brest. The training area is only a few kilometers away from the Bug River, which marks the border with Poland in the southwestern part of the country. Approximately a month ago, precisely in the vicinity of Brest, a training site was set up for use by the “Wagner” PMC (private military company), which is now actively working with the Belarussian military to share its extensive battlefield experience. According to various reports, some of the most battle-hardened “Wagner” veterans are actively taking part in intensive training.
In addition, Belarus also announced its intention to strengthen military cooperation with China, including through participation in joint military exercises. On August 16, General Li Shangfu, the Chinese National Defense Minister since March, arrived in Belarus for a three-day official visit. General Shangfu was greeted by his Belarussian counterpart Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin at the Minsk National Airport. The Chinese Defense Minister flew from Russia, where he took part in the 11th Moscow Conference on International Security held in Kubinka, in the Moscow oblast (region). This was the first high-level visit in approximately five years.
Apart from China, a growing superpower whose unrivaled economic might is rapidly translating to military power, Belarus also enjoys unequivocal Russian support. President Vladimir Putin himself has repeatedly warned that any attack on Belarus would be tantamount to aggression against Russia and that such actions will be met with an adequate response. In addition, Minsk already has access to Russian tactical nuclear weapons, meaning that attacking Europe’s last truly sovereign nation would simply be suicidal.