Government forces are preparing to take control of a key region near the Syrian capital, Damascus.
The Syrian army and its allies are going to launch a fresh military operation to force Jaish al-Islam militant group to surrender their strongholds in the region and to withdraw to Idlib.
Douma is Jaish al-Islam’s main stronghold in the area. It will likely become one of the targets of the operation.
According to pro-militant sources:
- Jaish al-Islam and its allies have about 10,000 fighters;
- 435,000 civilians live in the region.
The operation will be a major blow to the so-called “moderate opposition” and to allow to secure the area of Damascus.
If this takes as long Aleppo we might only see the fall of this enclave in the summer. On the plus side this enclave seems to be isolated already and not getting much supplies from our Turkish ‘friends’.
I’ll give them until the end of January. Eastern Ghouta is not so politically supported from the West as it was in Aleppo. Moreover, in the Eastern Ghouta ther is more open terrain, Aleppo was 95% a compact settlement
They are not backed by turkey, the forces in douma are backed by Saudi Arabia.
Huge problem here: taking east ghouta will not be easy without air support and Israel regularly flies over damascus to bomb targets and won’t be denied access here.
Use drones ; get this done , should be done by New Year .
Damascus , the Capitol must be secure .
Yes, you’re right. However, the operation to liberate Ghouti will not go without greater support for Russia. Some time ago they said that the Russian army will helped with aviation and ballistic missiles. Control over Damscom means not only thousands of troops for other Frots, it also means that Saudi Arabia will no longer have political influence in Syria
This is an ideal target. The terrorists there are much weaker than those in Aleppo while taking back Ghouta secures the greater Damascus area once and for all.
Once completed, the focus must be on Northern Homs or Idlib.
If no Lavrovian ceasefires take place, and sufficient forces allocated, 2-3 months is a realistic timetable.
The siege around this pocket is porous, but some added manpower can seal it. The moderates here are on YouTube displaying kidnapped families they put in cages and positioned next to artillery to be used as human shields. They have allegedly used chemical weapons. I do not think you can get more extremist than that.
According to MSM 7th century-style wahhabis aren’t very moderate, but 13th century-style salafis are true heroes, bringers of democracy and freedom. Actually they’re both are damn same medieval ideology!
“Jaish al-Islam and its allies have about 10,000 fighters”
They should aim to kill as many of them as possible – not make deals and let them get bussed to Idlib unscathed.
Give overall planning to russians or iranians, since we recently found out that syrian high command is still pretty, well… unprofessional.
East Ghouta needs a sound plan and preparation and some Aleppo troops and local militias and it’ll fall within a month and half, my guess.