Syrian Army Is Planning To Attack Kurdish Forces With 50,000 Troops

Illustrative image. (Syrian Defense Ministry)

The Syrian military is planning a large-scale attack with some 50,000 troops on the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to capture the governorates of Raqqa and Deir Ezzor in the north and east of the country, The National reported on August 16, citing security sources.

According to the sources, the attack will be launched if the SDF, which is backed by the United States, refuses to hand over control over the two governorates, which have overwhelmingly Arab tribal populations.

The report came just days after Syria’s Islamist-led Interim Government announced that it will not take part in meetings with the SDF in France, which were planned to discuss an agreement signed in March to integrate the group into state institutions including the military.

Tensions between the Syrian military and the SDF have been mounting ever since, with both sides exchanging accusations of provocations along the frontline.

One of the sources, who holds a sensitive security position in Syria, told The National that the attack would not go ahead “without an American green light”.

Another key factor would be ensuring non-intervention by Israel, which a month earlier intervened stopping a Syrian military attack on Druze fighters in the southern governorate of al-Suwayda.

The SDF, which has some 100,000 fighters, is increasingly being seen as recalcitrant in Washington by not handing any significant powers to the government, the source said.

Another source who spoke to The National said that the staging grounds for the attack are being prepared in the desert surrounding the town of Rasafah, on the road from the city of Palmyra to Raqqa, and in the town of Sukhnah, which links Palmyra with Deir Ezzor.

Turkish-backed factions in the governorate of Aleppo, which are now a part of the Syrian military, would move against SDF positions east of the Euphrates, near Tishreen Dam, once the attack begins, according to the sources.

The source went on to speculate that Arab tribesmen, who make up 30 percent of SDF fighters, will turn against the group at the start of the attack.

“They have so many scores to settle with the Kurds,” the source said

Turkey, which views the SDF as a threat to its national security, is guaranteed to back any attack by the Syrian military. Ankara could even go as far as providing air support.

Such an attack if successful would corner the SDF in the governorate al-Haskah, where the majority of the population are Kurds.

The National’s report provides an interesting insight not just on the military plans of the Syrian government, but also on its speculations and expectations.

Damascus seems overly optimistic, possibly to the point of miscalculation. We have already seen it miscalculating with the attack on al-Suwayda, where the intervention of Israel was not expected.

Such a mistake against the SDF will be even more costly for the government. The group is heavily-armed, professionally-trained and highly-organized, unlike the Syrian military which lacks any real command and control chain. On top of this, the SDF maintains solid relations with the U.S. on the military and security levels. It also keeps relations with Russia, which even operates an airfield in al-Haskah.

What the government expects to be a walk in the park, could turn to be a strategic defeat of a magnitude that could affect Damascus itself.

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