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Originally published on ZeroHedge
After a 3-day halt, Russian energy giant Gazprom was expected to resume critical supplies of nat gas to Europe via Nord Stream 1 tomorrow, but it appears that Putin who is enjoying the game of cat and mouse a little too much, had other plans and as a result, Russian gas flows toward Europe won’t be coming back any time soon, as moments ago Gazprom announced that it had “completely halted” transport of gas to Nord Stream until a previously undetected oil leakage is rectified.
That could take hours, days… or months.
- GAZPROM ISSUES STATEMENT ON NORD STREAM 1 MAINTENANCE
- GAZPROM: TRANSPORT OF GAS TO THE NORD STREAM PIPELINE HAS BEEN COMPLETELY HALTED UNTIL FAULTS ARE RECTIFIED
- GAZPROM: DURING ROUTINE MAINTENANCE WORKS OIL LEAKAGE WAS DETECTED
- GAS SUPPLIES TO NORD STREAM FULLY STOPPED
- GAZPROM STATEMENT GIVES NO TIME FRAME FOR RESTART OF GAS SUPPLY THROUGH NORD STREAM 1
Here is a photo of the alleged “oil leak”:
Gazprom has released a photo of the alleged “oil leak” that’s going to keep the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline closed for now. pic.twitter.com/91jH8P9qLi
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 2, 2022
The “shocking development” is a massive blow to Europe, which is scrambling to fill up its gas storage ahead of winter and which has been trying to guess Moscow’s next steps in the energy war for weeks.
To quote Walter Sobchak, “Mark it zero” for the foreseeable future.
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That means that Europe will now be forced to rely even more on… well… Russian gas, in the form of much more expensive LNG resold by China. And after tumbling by more than 50% in the past few days, we fully expect European gas prices are about to go super parabolic and take out all time highs as soon as trading returns on Monday.
The news promptly sent spoos sliding back under 4000 as any hope Europe’s energy hyperinflation was finally over were just steamrolled by the Russian president.
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What does this mean for European NatGas prices when they wake up on Monday morning (or Sunday night) while America celebrates Labor by not working?
Goldman’s Samantha Dart has the details and they are not pretty…
We believe this will reignite market uncertainty regarding the region’s ability to manage storage through winter, driving a significant rally from Monday, potentially mimicking the August highs, should the issue at NS1 remain unresolved. However, we reiterate our view that even in a scenario where NS1 remains at zero, we estimate NW European gas markets can balance with Bal Summer TTF prices in a 215-230 EUR/MWh range (depending on how much the lower NS1 flows are offset by lower German re-exports of Russian gas), vs our 176 EUR TTF expectations under NS1 at a 20% flow.
Importantly, our price scenarios rely on our estimated demand elasticity of 1 mcm/d per 1.8 EUR move in prices. Hence, a potential decline in observed demand elasticity poses an upside risk to our price views. Specifically, should demand elasticity drop by half, for example, vs our original estimate, we estimate balance-of-summer TTF prices up to 290 EUR/MWh would be required to take storage to 90% full under a zero-flow NS1 scenario.
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A renewed rally of European gas prices on the back of today’s NS1 news will likely also heat up the debate around government intervention in the market, with most statements from public officials so far pointing towards an intervention in electricity markets.
We caution that, depending on the impact of such an intervention on power prices, this could indirectly further tighten gas balances by incentivizing increased power consumption and, as a result, gas demand. Instead, we believe that government-led reverse auctions might be a safer route, from a gas balance perspective. This would mean governments would buy back gas directly from industrial users on a voluntary basis to place in storage. As this would be a form of gas demand destruction independent of gas prices, it would help guarantee storage builds while removing the burden of the adjustment from prices, ultimately driving gas and power prices lower vs a scenario without auctions.
As Bloomberg puts it, “it marks a dramatic escalation in Europe’s energy crisis — and comes just as prices were easing. If the shutdown persists, it puts households, factories and economies at risk, weakening Europe’s hand as it backs Ukraine in the war against Russia.” Said otherwise, millions of virtue signalers will be cold, hungry and in the dark this winter but at least they will have an Ukraine flag in their twitter bio.
That article is not entirely true its slanted anti- Russia .
The Truth ???- Germany REFUSES to get Siemens to OFFICIALLY sign the ONE gas turbine over held in Germany as to do so would break the US sanctions – 5 more are still in Canada.
EU -bought -paid for – slaves of the USA Zionists and war experts say Russia is winning TOO FAST and their vision of years of their war industry making $Trillions will not be happening .
They are then going to put the EU under war debt to pay for all the American arms sent so Europe will be hit financially both ways-
Any country capping our Russian oil will cease to have it delivered only FRIENDLY countries allowed–Kremlin .
Can we take a moment to appreciate the level of trolling here,the day Ursula von der whatever opened her incompetent mouth about restricting the price for russian gas, the Russians discovered an ”oil leak” that had indefinitely closed the only pipeline that supplys germany on a week the germans declared they will have their storage reserves at 90% full by october and declared their unyielding support for Ukraine irrespective of public support,and presented the picture above as proof ,bravo Russia bravo, hilarious,can our resident NATO trolls try to learn from such brilliance instead of the mid america trailer trash talk they consider intellectual discourse.
Exactly, I find this part of the war brilliantly conducted by the Russians and I expect that after this winter is over. the world will have become a very different place.
The senseless woke-diverse rambling thunberg idiots of the EU apparently forgot that their entire economy and green-energy-delusions are dependent on Russian energy. As in 1941, Russia was a lot better prepared for a prolonged war and sanctions then the idiots in the west expected.
European Stainless Steel Mills are closing due to the energy crisis -Belgium Aperam Mill in Genk shut down reduced production at their Chatelet Mill.
Arcelor Mittal has closed the plant in Bremen too. Everything is going under the bus and very fast.
I love my mouth stuffed with big c0ck.
More latest news – India and China both REFUSE to join the American led “price cap” on Russian fuel.
India already has it. They are buying Russian oil at a discount. Obviously it is a mutual agreement. But the point is “why the fuck would India shoot itself in the sack”?
Now I have to suck more dicks more gas.
Hey EU the FREEZE is HERE hope you have your wooly underwear on ROFL, you shot yourselves in the foot again and NOW comes the FREEZE, it is simple to fix, certify Nord Stream 2 and pay in RUBLES and guess what you will have all the gas you like though if I were President Putin you would GET NO GAS UNTIL YOU STOPPED WEAPONS SHIPMENTS and even then you would have to beg. =Z=
I wonder, when they planned all this out, whether they realised just how much they import from Russia, besides gas and oil? Whatever happens, they will never get cheap, pipelined gas again. Which will have a knock on effect on what little is left of European Industry. I guess the Asian nations will be more than happy with the European loss.
Old Boris, thought he was so clever, announcing the build of 7 nuclear power plants in the UK, but, I wonder if he understood where he would get the uranium from, in order to power the nuclear reactors? I hear Russia is a major exporter.
Gold – which many nations are using to back their currencies, rather than use a printer and how much gold does Russia produce?
Petroleum products
Gas
Crude oil
Machinery equipment
Ferrous metals
Diesel fuel
Liquid fuels
Coal
Wheat
Aluminium
Lumber
Fertiliser and potassium
Gasolene
Pig iron
Plywood
Synthetic rubber
Ammonia
Ferroalloys
Passenger Cars
Electrical Energy
Nuclear energy
Cellulose
Coke and semi-coke of coal
Wood in the rough
Nickel unwrought
Methanol
Newsprint paper
Trucks
Calcium phosphate
Spirits
Fabric of Cotton
Uranium
Titanium
Now how much of that will be beneficial to the Belt and Road Project, that the 3 Seas Initiative wants to compete with? In comparison, how much does the 12 nations, that make up the 3 Sea Initiative export or produce?
Part 2
Back in 2014, when I started following events, I remember an article stating that Obama and Saudi were trying to manipulate the oil market, in order to take Russia out. They based their figures on what they assumed was the Russian GDP that the energy sector provided Russia, assuming Russia was reliant on 50% of their GDP, from the energy sector. Only, they forgot PPP (purchasing power paradies) and the fact that Russia’s PPP only relied on 16% from the energy market. Thus, this prevented Russia losing out, back in 2014. She could make a barrel of oil for a under 5 rubles, based on the fact that her production costs were in ruble and she sold the product in $US. The US could not make a barrel of oil for less than $60, if they wanted to make a profit. At the time, just like today, the greed of the West, in a roundabout way, created profits for Russia, where her energy was concerned.
in 2019, Rand Corporation, a Think Tank, full of Academics, created a report, to advise politicians and friends that Russia was heavily reliant on her gas and oil exports in order to survive. It never dawned on them that Russia was not the gas station that John McCain labelled her. Again, they got it wrong. The same Rand Corporation that sent Poroshenko a list, back in May 2014, stating they needed to depopulate Ukraine by around 2 million. Didn’t the Hungarian or a certain faith, who then turned his back on religion, believing himself to be God, also send a memo to the Ukraine Leader, stating something similar? Didn’t Cyber Berkut hack and publish it? Who runs the Rand Corporation?
‘…May 14, 1948, Project RAND—an organization formed immediately after World War II to connect military planning with research and development decisions—separated from the Douglas Aircraft Company of Santa Monica, California, and became an independent, nonprofit organization. Adopting its name from a contraction of the term research and development, the newly formed entity was dedicated to furthering and promoting scientific, educational, and charitable purposes for the public welfare and security of the United States…’
Ironic, just a year earlier the CIA was launched, with Allen Dulles the Director. The Dulles brothers, who had more friends over in Germany, than in the US. The first CIA exercise was ‘Operation Paperclip’, the safe passage of the Bolshevik and Nanzi Elite, including the scientists and engineers. A year later, Rand Corporation is created and I wonder how many of those engineers and scientists were attracted to the Rand Corporation Think Tank?
If you are in risk management then look at the bigger -broader world domination picture -yes the EU is destroying itself at the behest of the USA who want to continue to be # 1 and know they wont be as their empire is crumbling.
Like children they want to take the whole world down with them .
Even USA economists admit the USA,s 400 wars and more to come is keeping the USA afloat – Military Industry – every plane-tank destroyed by Russia brings a loud cheer from the US industrial military complex ensuring even more production and money pouring in from the US tax payer .
Their problem now is — Russia is winning so no more years of continuous supply– now they are tentatively talking of a “ceasefire ” ( behind the scenes )–Russia is having none of it – once we rid Ukraine of the Nazi Azov’s and Zelensky stops his firing — maybe but -too late now.
The USA has made the western world reliant on its FRACKED LNG – so much for the German “green “Party backing them and now the USA CANT supply enough to Europe and the Biden government now says – we will conserve supplies for our own citizens — after all the brave words they said to Europe – we will supply you – EU/west- total complete MUGS !!!
Excellent comment Donnchadh, confirmed by the trolls being all over it.
I’m selling my ass for less than 5 rubbles but haven’t gotten any taker this whole week.
You are a veritable encyclopedia, AM. I wish I was as organised as you.
Bravo, AM.
Very good review AM Hants! I wonder if the EU-idiots will ever realize that their own meddling into Russian-Ukrainian affairs in 2014 was the cause of their own downfall.
My mom is a dirty whore. No one wants to fk her. So I had to take over but that didn’t last. And here I am trolling for some attention hopefully I can get some customer.
Well said, AM.
Exactly. Gas is not only needed to make electricity or cook or heat your house. It is a needed component in some industrial process, like the ones from producing fertilizers, some types of steel, ammonia and a gazillion more things.
These imbeciles self-proclaimed economists are utter ignorant. They think economy means playing on the rigged stock markets.
excellent summary by Hants
let do a campaign to donate thick blankets and sweaters to the poor that are affected by this gas turmoil
Yeah ! I like to sleep under thick blankets when the air is cold in the bedroom. Actually people in France still can sell their expensive smartphone to buy a thick blanket.
You seem like one of those typical French perferted ‘opportunists’ who enjoy keeping old grannies warm🔔
“seem” ? You have the right to speculate on people lifes.
The EU started the sanctions war but Russia will finish it
My background is risk and crisis management, and I cannot explain, what is going on. In R&C management, you do an assessment and list all risks, then you analyze these and put probability and impact to it. Then you define mitigation actions to contain or even eliminate risks. And the mayor thing: you define methods to discover a risk materializing to start your mitigation actions. This is a continuose cycle, which lasts as long as your project runs. And there is one most important issue: you make a risk vs benefit analysis to determine, if the risk can be handled without damaging your own operation. Thew benefit should always be greater then the damage!
Here I don’t see that, or the real aim of all this is not provided. If the aim was to destroy the EU and its economies, then all is well on track!
Thats the results of the US, EU oil price cap 😂
“Said otherwise, millions of virtue signalers will be cold, hungry and in the dark this winter but at least they will have an Ukraine flag in their twitter bio”
Hahahahaha…that last sentence is absolute gold!!!
There is no creature more dumb and callous, than a virtue signaller.
The immage of these vile morons being curled up into a fetal position makes me very happy!!
Europeans DESERVE to be fucked… I hope Winter 2022/23 to be the coldest EVER.
I think they hired the same mechanic that I caught squirting oil on my shocks.
No industry can run without consumption of natural or fossil fuel as raw material?
Without natural gas any country will collapse itself.
Natural gas is not only a source for running automobiles and commercial and military jets; rather every single industry needs natural or fossil fuel as raw material to produce tires, mattresses, fertilizer, garments and lubricants for automobiles. Fossil fuel as raw material is also needed by the pharmaceutical, medical, construction, furniture, electrical, electronics, and engineering industries, cookware, laundry detergents, cosmetics, automobiles, packaging and aviation industries.
How much gas and petroleum the European nations need. I can buy so much that they would not be able to store it. The current crisis are created by their own leaders.
The European nations need capable leaders to lead these nations and to take out them from all this current crisis and mess that the current and previous leaders have lefted in the past 70 years.
How much gas and petroleum the European nations need. I can buy so much that they would not be able to store it. The current crisis are created by their own leaders.
The European nations need capable leaders to lead these nations and to take out them from all this current crisis and mess that the current and previous leaders have created in the past 70 years.