File image.
The storm clouds are gathering over Iran. Israel and the U.S. have finished preparing for a potential air operation. The transfer of U.S. forces to the Middle East has been completed. Tel Aviv has put its armed forces on high alert.
President Donald Trump remains faithful to his strategy of bold, aggressive politics. This strategy is clearly bearing fruit, as evidenced by the successful military operation in Venezuela. However, despite the claims of domestic opponents, Trump is by no means a vain madman. Every step he takes is well-founded and aimed at Washington’s most important current goal: containing China.
Global outlook
To understand the current situation with Iran and the possible future actions of the U.S. administration, it is necessary to consider the root causes of U.S. actions in support of Israel. Currently, China is similar to the former Soviet Union and is beginning to rival the United States in many areas of global dominance. This is why the next decade will see a complete redistribution of spheres of influence worldwide. Put simply, there is a cold war between Washington and Beijing, but so far, it has only been economic.
File image.
Donald Trump has decided to strike one of his geopolitical opponents’ most vulnerable areas: energy. China is the world’s largest importer of hydrocarbons, with imports accounting for over 70% of its oil needs. Its largest suppliers are Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. However, these are not the only suppliers. Beijing has also purchased a significant amount of energy resources from Venezuela and Iran. Moreover, these purchases were made at a large discount because these sanctioned countries are unable to officially sell oil.
The U.S. administration has already seized at least seven tankers belonging to Venezuela’s shadow fleet. Western media outlets have emphasized that these vessels are Russian-owned. However, the final destinations of these tankers have not been disclosed, but it is highly likely that they are Chinese ports. Consequently, Beijing has lost one of its energy allies. Now, it is the turn of the second ally, whose position is already extremely precarious.
On July 13, 2025, a 12-day conflict began between Iran and Israel. The IDF Air Force launched surprise strikes on key Iranian military targets. Part of the armed forces command was also destroyed. On the first day of the strikes, the Iranian military was effectively paralyzed. Subsequent announced strikes with Iranian medium-range ballistic missiles had no significant effect. Israeli military facilities remained almost untouched. During the operation, Tel Aviv and Washington conducted reconnaissance, drew conclusions, and planned for a larger future air operation. They also drew conclusions about Iran’s extremely limited military capabilities. This significantly reduced the risks of the planned operation.
Click to see full-size image.
Click to see full-size image.
The situation in Iran also appears unstable. On December 28, 2025, mass protests swept across the country amid an increasingly dire economic situation. Representatives of the Iranian opposition around the world immediately became active. There were clashes with previously dormant terrorist cells. Only a complete internet shutdown throughout the country and the harsh suppression of the protests helped stabilize the situation. It remains to be seen how long this will last.
Click to see full-size image. (X)
Clenched fist
Over the past month, the Pentagon has been building up its strike force at air bases in the Middle East. Given Washington’s pragmatism regarding financial matters, it is unlikely that this is merely a show of force, considering the millions of dollars it costs to deploy advanced strike forces. Several news reports indicate that additional forces are being transferred.
For example, four heavy C-17 military transport aircraft arrived on Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean. The aircraft are carrying bombs and missiles for strategic bombers. Diego Garcia Island is the main “nest” of American strategic aviation.
Military transport aircraft are actively transferring cargo from the U.S. to Europe and to the Mildenhall and Fairford air bases in the U.K., as well as the Ramstein air base in Germany. These airfields serve as transit points, and after refueling, the aircraft continue on to the Middle East.
In the last few days, a total of 47 flights have been made by U.S. Air Force Boeing C-17A Globemaster III military transport aircraft, delivering weapons to the Middle East in preparation for a possible strike on Iran and a potential retaliatory attack.
Click to see full-size image. (Flightradar24/X)
On January 14, three American strategic bombers headed to the Indian Ocean. They are likely based at Diego Garcia now.
Also on January 14, six refueling aircraft were urgently deployed from the American airbase at Al Udeid in Qatar to an unknown destination. This indicates that the U.S. Air Force is moving its forces away from the border with Iran. Refueling aircraft are essential for ensuring long-term airstrike capabilities.
Click to see full-size image. (Flightradar24/X)
Incidentally, a U.S. C-17 aircraft arrived at the Al-Salt airbase in Jordan from Diego Garcia. It is estimated that this base will become a temporary home for search-and-rescue aircraft. Training military pilots is a valuable and expensive undertaking. Therefore, Americans pay special attention to rescuing these servicemen. In addition, 36 American F-15E fighter jets have been deployed to this airbase.
Click to see full-size image. (MizarVision)
Click to see full-size image. (MizarVision)
On January 17, four British Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft arrived at the Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain from the Akrotiri Air Base on Cyprus, where they are stationed, accompanied by a tanker aircraft.
EA-37B Compass Call II Electronic Warfare Jet (17-5579) on January 25 reached Ramstein AB. The aircraft is a modified Gulfstream G550 and is replacing the older EC-130H. The last time Compass Call in the region was during the Israeli Pager attack targeting Hezbollah.
The role of the Compass Call is to disrupt enemy command and control communications, radars, and navigation systems, significantly hindering adversary coordination as part of the Counter-Command, Control, Computers, Communications, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Targeting (Counter-C5ISRT) mission.
The jet will be able to conduct jamming of radars, electronic systems and communications. It will thus be able participate in Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) missions by disrupting an enemy’s ability to coordinate sensors and use weapon batteries that target friendly aircraft.
Click to see full-size image. (Flightradar24/X)
On January 25, a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group led by the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln arrived in the Arabian Sea. The carrier is accompanied by the destroyer USS Spruance and the cruisers USS Michael Murphy and USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. All of the ships are equipped with guided missile weapons.
Two more U.S. Navy strike cruisers, the USS Mitscher and the USS McFaul, are based in the Persian Gulf.
Click to see full-size image.
According to reports from January 25, the deployment of U.S. forces to defend Israel in the event of an Iranian attack is complete. The deployment of Israeli forces has also been completed.
On January 26, U.S. President Donald Trump will hold a closed meeting with Air Force command.
Iran is suspending its exercises near Chabahar and the Gulf of Oman for the next few days. This “cancellation” of the schedule means that the military has transitioned from “exercise” to “real operations” mode. The forces in this sector are now silent and on high alert to avoid revealing their positions through active actions.
Overall, it can be assumed that the strike force has been formed. However, the Americans and their allies may need time to conduct thorough reconnaissance. A significant number of strike assets have been deployed against Iran. This is in addition to the American aircraft that are permanently based in the region. For example, at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, there are at least 40 U.S. Air Force fighter jets. Additionally, combat aircraft are based in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and other countries.
Spoiler for the plot
The nature of future operations should also be considered. Based on past experience, the focus will likely be on surprise. The main target will be Iran’s top leadership, whom the U.S. and its allies will attempt to eliminate entirely. Evidence of this can be found in the following news item from January 26:
“Iran’s top leadership has approved a succession plan in case the U.S. and Israel carry out targeted killings of the republic’s leaders.” The successors have also been informed of retaliatory measures in response to the strikes.
The second equally important target will be air defense systems and combat aircraft bases. This is necessary to ensure air superiority. Furthermore, during last year’s conflict, the Israeli Air Force destroyed Iran’s main long-range radars. Efforts will then focus on key communications nodes and command posts to completely disrupt the Iranian armed forces.
In the third stage, U.S. Special Operations Forces will spark a new wave of popular protests. A country without leadership is unlikely to be able to suppress the riots. In conditions of general chaos, protesters have a high chance of seizing state power.
All of the above is only possible if the Iranian government has no trump card up its sleeve. The outcome of the recent conflict with Israel suggests that this trump card may not exist.
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the first israeli attack against iran was a game; we saw the same thing in venezuela, so it’s always the people who suffer. they’re all in cahoots: us-russian-iranian-israeli-chinese, etc.
iran can not be destroyed by killing leaders, or bombing raids. iran has a huge army and counting paramilitaries it is 2 million strong. us is not getting permission to use any allied base in the area.
in past demonstrations irani army used non-lethal rounds. in state of war they will use live bullets against demonstrators, so they can not topple the government.
us will try to use kurds, but they are on guagmire in syria where thousands of pkk militants have flooded.
kurds are betrayed by usa over and over. if they give up their home only to become a tool for trump, jewlan will accept this offer with pleasure.
pro jolani south front talking shit about iran. russia and china cannot stop america attracking iran but they cannot allow america to defeat iran and install a us puppet anti china/russia regime, cause russia and china will be next!!! iran must be tge graveyard for usa ambitions and agendas litterally, usa must die in its attempt to seize iran.
“never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” -napoleon-
china and especially russia would be smart to let us attack iran. closing oil shipments from hormuz strait will make oil price go sky high.
also war in iran will cost usa a lot. iraq war cost around 2-3 trillion. it will weaken us and strengthen china and russia. iran can not be taken without ground assault.
moreover in lengthened conflict weapons that would otherwise go to ukraine will be used in iran. not for benefit of ukraine, but for the detriment of us. killing scores of civilians like us always does is not very good pr.
china and russia are both too cowardly to wipe out one of those american bases in diego garcia or the middle east and stop the attack dead in its tracks. hopefully they have some other plan to prevent iran from falling because if it does brics is dead.
diego garcia is actually land stolen from chagossians by ethnic cleansing. chagossians until this day demand us base to be vacated and to be allowed to return to their home.
“subsequent announced strikes with iranian medium-range ballistic missiles had no significant effect. israeli military facilities remained almost untouched.” yeah, exactly, and that’s why the israeli terrorists panicked after 12 days and loudly demanded a ceasefire.
it’s not because of oil. it’s because of joooos.