Spanish Elections: No Government Can Be Formed Without Puigdemont's SupportSouth Front

Puigdemont in the European Parliament

Written by Jordi Oriola Folch

State elections were held in Spain on 23 July. President Sánchez, of the PSOE, hoped to beat his rival, the PP, by stoking the fear that, if they did not vote for him, a right-wing government could be formed with the extreme right (PP + VOX), which is what all the polls predicted.

In the end, although the PP won with 136 seats, with the 33 of VOX and the 2 of two right-wing regional parties, they have 171 seats and fall short of the 176 (half plus one of the total of 350) that they would need to be able to invest Feijóo. Nor does the “left-wing” bloc add up to enough seats for Sánchez to be invested: 122 for the PSOE plus the seats of five other parties that already supported the PSOE in the last legislature (one pro-independence party, ERC) make up only 172 seats, falling short of the 176.

JUNTS candidate Miriam Nogueras with the party’s secretary general, Jordi Turull

Therefore, although in Catalonia there has been a high abstention of pro-independence supporters disappointed with the pro-independence parties, the results of these parties are decisive: The Catalan pro-independence party, JUNTS (of the Catalan President in exile, Carles Puigdemont), with 7 seats, is indispensable for Sánchez if he wants to be invested. But JUNTS’ condition for the investiture of any president is that the Spanish state recognises Catalonia’s right to self-determination.

Puigdemont and Sánchez at the last meeting in 2016

The truth is that the Catalan independence movement is not very motivated to invest Sanchez, as it has received violations of rights by his government at the same level as the previous government of Rajoy’s PP: reprisals, illegal spying with Pegasus, infiltration of spies in peaceful social movements, police set-ups to accuse this movement of being violent, inclusion of Catalan independence on Europol terrorist lists, state operations to prevent pro-independence parties from gaining institutional power, attacks on the Catalan language, mockery of Puigdemont, non-recognition that he is a political exile and threats that he will be arrested, demonstrations that Catalonia is better off simply because there are not so many demonstrations in the streets, but without having addressed their desire to be able to decide their political status. ..

Voting

And furthermore, the day after the elections, when it was clear that Sánchez needed Puigdemont to be able to form a government, the public prosecutor’s office (which depends on the government) asked to reactivate the Euro-order to try to arrest Puigdemont in Belgium. And on the same day, JUNTS MEP Ponsatí was arrested to make her testify in court in Barcelona, thus violating her parliamentary immunity.

For his part, Sánchez has been quick to declare that he will never grant a referendum on self-determination, nor an amnesty for the 4,400 repressed Catalans. But if Sánchez refuses to allow a referendum, JUNTS will vote against it and the elections will have to be repeated. This would be the sixth election since 2015, whereas if Spanish politics were not so convulsive, only two elections would have been held in this period. This shows that the unresolved conflict with Catalonia and the undemocratic way it is being managed is dragging the Spanish state into an increasingly disturbing instability for the EU.

Ballot papers

In new elections, the vote would be concentrated in the two big parties and would beat the PP, but the two blocs would probably tie again. Catalan pro-independence supporters, motivated by the usefulness of their vote, would vote massively for JUNTS to push even harder for a referendum or, if the candidates refuse, again block the governability of the state.

In the end, it is possible that in order to overcome the blockade, the PSOE could invest Feijóo. It would show that they are more Spanish nationalists than democrats. The PP is a party founded by Francoists, very far to the right, so it has no problem making a pact with the extreme right. It may cause astonishment in Europe that the PSOE prefers a far-right government rather than allow a referendum in Catalonia.

A final note: The PP+VOX in Spain (excluding Catalonia and the Basque Country) have 55% of the seats. On the other hand, in Catalonia, they only have 17%. This clearly shows that Spanish and Catalan society would like to carry out antagonistic social projects and it would be more democratic if each could develop its own path.