Should Russia Sign Any ‘Ceasefire Deals’ NATO Might Offer?

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Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

On July 2, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Kiev for the first time since 2012 when he met the last legitimate (and sovereign) Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. A harsh critic of the NATO-backed Neo-Nazi junta, Orban isn’t exactly a favorite among his hosts. Thus, it may seem strange that he would ever visit the NATO-occupied country. However, as Hungary took over the EU’s rotating presidency for the rest of the year, it can only be expected that Brussels will put additional pressure on Budapest, which might be one of the main reasons Orban decided to do so. As previously mentioned, the hosts weren’t exactly thrilled and Orban himself certainly didn’t expect a warm welcome.

In line with his repeated calls for peace negotiations (the real ones, not the ludicrous kind that Switzerland apparently likes to host), Hungary’s PM reiterated it this time as well, urging Volodymyr Zelensky “to consider a quick ceasefire”. In a press briefing right after the private meeting during which he said it, Orban stated that “[he] asked the president to think about whether we could approach this a little differently, to take a break, to cease fire, and then proceed with negotiations”. The Kiev regime didn’t take this too kindly, as it still insists on the withdrawal of the Russian military, an extremely unlikely prospect. In contrast, Orban called for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations between the two sides.

“A ceasefire connected to a deadline would give a chance to speed up peace talks. I explored this possibility with the president and I am grateful for his honest answers and negotiation,” he stated.

Orban argues that this could bring about the conditions for a real negotiated settlement that could result in a permanent peace deal. Even before the meeting, the Neo-Nazi junta frontman’s reaction was some sort of “I don’t really care”, just wrapped in a “diplomatic” form. Zelensky’s office officially said that “it will be a much-needed, important conversation about the future of Europe, security, international law, and the Formula of Peace”. The last part of the statement refers to the Kiev regime’s laughable “peace formula” that boils down to Russia’s capitulation. Knowing just how out of touch and ridiculous the very idea of it is, Orban didn’t really comment on this, focusing on other matters.

In his view, developing neighborly relations between the two countries is far more important, stressing the need to build a better partnership and highlighting that Hungary would want to have close ties to Ukraine just like with all of its other neighbors. However, the Neo-Nazi junta seems to be less excited about this, as its political leadership doesn’t really appreciate that Orban repeatedly tried blocking EU/NATO “military aid” and other initiatives that Hungary sees as escalatory and dangerous. This also includes Orban’s active opposition to the Kiev regime’s NATO membership, a stance that resulted in the mainstream propaganda machine’s regular smear campaigns targeting him and his associates.

Thus, Orban is usually referred to as a “pro-Putin” leader. The political West always uses such ad hominem attacks on “non-compliant” individuals (particularly leaders) to put additional pressure and force foreign policy changes. However, Budapest has repeatedly stated that it won’t budge, insisting on negotiations and diplomacy to end the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict. Instead, we have the policy of perpetual escalation through the shipments of ever more advanced and longer-range weapons. And to say nothing of NATO’s increasingly possible direct military involvement that Hungary doesn’t want to take part in, as Orban himself has openly stated on several occasions. Thus, this peace deal offer sounds all the more peculiar.

The timing is particularly interesting, as Orban decided to pay Zelensky this surprise visit on the second day of Hungary’s EU presidency. Perhaps it was long in the making, but another possibility is that Brussels itself okayed the move as a way to prevent “unpleasant” changes on the battlefield. Namely, NATO has up to 500,000 battle-ready soldiers whose task is to directly occupy Ukraine and engage Russian troops. As this is a less-than-ideal (or, more precisely, a desperate) move, the political West might be looking for alternatives to prevent the Neo-Nazi junta’s total defeat. Russian strike capabilities are such that any large troop concentrations would be in grave danger, leading to massive casualties.

A ceasefire could give NATO a window of opportunity to deploy all the way to the contact line and take around 80% of Ukraine without firing a single shot. Obviously, this would be a strategic defeat for Russia, which is something that the Kremlin will want to avoid, particularly now that the Russian military’s already massive advantage keeps growing. In addition, Zelensky’s statements might suggest that he’s also onboard with the idea, saying that he and Orban discussed “how to bring about a just and lasting peace”. Hungary’s PM himself told the Kiev regime frontman that he wants to hear “[his] vision of the chances for peace”. Once again, this could be an indicator that such ceasefire plans might be in effect.

Obviously, this is not to say that Hungary is working toward such a settlement because of its apparent “loyalty to NATO”, but simply because it’s in its interest for the conflict to end. However, the real danger of such a ceasefire is that it wouldn’t provide long-lasting peace. On the contrary, it would further increase the chances of strategic conflict between NATO and Russia.

In addition, the Kremlin knows that the political West cannot give any legal guarantees, simply because its politicians cannot be trusted. Empirical evidence suggests that every word that comes from their mouth could easily be a blatant lie, meaning that Moscow can only rely on its armed forces as the one true guarantee of its strategic security.

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