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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
The announcement about the departure of Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov reveals the internal problems among the country’s military elites in a context in which Kiev has not made any progress in its counteroffensive against Russian forces. In fact, by sacking Reznikov, Zelensky is showing paranoia and desperation, especially as reports emerge that Ukraine is preparing for another counteroffensive using students, factory workers and overage men.
Ukraine has suffered from corruption scandals in the military, recruitment problems, failures at the front, and doubts about sustained Western military support. This boiled over with the sacking of Reznikov, a position he had held since November 2021, just a couple of months before the launch of the special military operation.
“Oleksii Reznikov has gone through more than 550 days of full-scale war,” Zelensky said in a statement announcing his decision on September 3. “I believe that the ministry needs new approaches and other formats of interaction with both the military and society at large.”
To replace Reznikov, Zelensky nominated Rustem Umerov, a former people’s deputy, to become the new defence minister and urged the parliament to support the nomination.
“The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine knows this person well, and Mr. Umerov does not need any additional introductions,” Zelensky said. “I expect parliament to support this candidate.”
Despite giving the excuse that Reznikov has dealt with every day of the war as a reason for his sacking, it instead reflects the differences between Kiev’s powerbrokers on the counteroffensive and the overall course of the war.
Given the failures of the counteroffensive, Zelensky is getting more paranoid and prefers to remove potential threats to his leadership. In this way, he also warns those who oppose him because stark differences emerge between those seeking a negotiated peace and those who want to continue the conflict.
Tensions in Eastern Europe have been fuelled by Washington’s insistence on continuing the conflict despite the high casualty rate. Zelensky shares Washington’s position, but there are generals within Ukraine who think that this conflict needs to come to an end.
The departure of Reznikov means that Kiev is going through an internal crisis in its Armed Forces after the corruption scandals that have recently been revealed. Several Ukrainian military officials were recently dismissed from recruitment centres because of influence peddling and corruption. Therefore, the sacking of Reznikov is the culmination of a severe problem in the Ukrainian military.
It must be noted that the announcement of Reznikov’s departure comes just a few days after a highly confidential meeting between the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi — and other Ukrainian generals — with top NATO commanders. As Kiev acknowledged then, it was a secret meeting which the media could not access.
Likewise, the news about Reznikov came just three days after the resignation of Ben Wallace as UK Defence Minister. In July, Wallace criticised Ukraine’s continued requests for weapons from the United States and its European allies. “We are not Amazon,” he said.
At the same time, Washington has already admitted that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has not yielded the expected results despite the supplies of Western weapons, which Zelensky has also recognised. The Ukrainian military is weak because all the well-trained troops have died or were wounded, greatly diminishing the offensive capabilities of the military, which could worsen if casualties continue to rise rapidly.
According to specialist Stephen Bryen on ‘Weapons and Strategy,’ Ukraine has already used up virtually all its strategic reserve units and is now “filling and patching” with much less capable territorial units from Lvov and the Moldovan border area, which have been sent to the Kupiansk area, “where Russia may start a major offensive.”
“This leaves the Ukrainian Army without reserves and with heavy losses on the ground. Even with a mobilisation scheduled for September, Ukraine will not be in a position to continue offensive operations, especially if high losses continue,” says the researcher at the Center for Security Policy and former staff director of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
He said, “There are reports that Ukraine will attempt a major mobilisation this month. This is likely to backfire on Zelensky as those who will be recruited include students, factory workers and overage men. Russia, so far, has not announced any further mobilisation.”
Ukraine having to rely on students, workers in critical industries, and the elderly to launch another counteroffensive speaks for itself – Ukraine is in a desperate situation. For now, it seemingly appears that the faction that wants to fight to the last Ukrainian is maintaining power in Kiev. The problem for Zelensky is that dissidence will continue to grow as Ukraine’s situation gets increasingly desperate, and he cannot just continue sacking everyone who could challenge his authority.
>those who will be recruited include students
most of these barely adult age orcs have already been mobilized and already denazified. no this time they are going to pool from local police departments, nursing homes etc.
anyone who has watched scott ritters excellent documentary on zelensky will immediately understand that the kiev leadership is in a box.
they cannot move without western approval, otherwise “accidents” begin to happen to their people. russia obviously understands this very well hence the destruction of ukronazi manpower and equipment, foreign and domestic.
normal people dont see and listen listen ritters.
its only true we try to support them for own own defence and by boycut.
the rest are them. thy elect for it. right now 73% support him. the russiens(not asked) max are/were 17,8%.
planners in russia now prefare one store houses with no windows. they are allowed to dig basements in stead.