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Written by Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant
After the military victory of Azerbaijan’s “anti-terrorist operation” and the announcement of the extinction of the Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), the future of the Russian peacekeeping mission seems uncertain. Since 2020, Moscow has maintained troops in the region to ensure compliance with the ceasefire terms and prevent escalations of violence. However, considering the end of Armenian separatism and Yerevan’s pro-Western turn, discussions about the continuity of the mission seem to be restricted to the Russia-Azerbaijan dialogue.
On September 29, the Russian government reported that it is talking to Azerbaijan to decide on the future of the peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh. There was no mention of Armenian participation in the negotiations, which was already expected, considering the high level of anti-Russian hostility shown by the Armenian government recently. It is most likely that the Armenian authorities will soon begin to press for the departure of Russian forces soon, as Nikol Pashinyan and other Armenian officials have already made it clear that they consider Russia to be guilty of the Azerbaijani military advance in Artsakh.
As well known, currently the ethnic Armenians of Artsakh are leaving the region, fleeing their homeland to avoid becoming victims of a process of ethnic cleansing by the Azeris. It is estimated that more than one hundred thousand native citizens of Artsakh have already crossed the border into Armenia. Few people chose to remain in the region and go through the process of “integration” with Azerbaijan, as recent experiences of violence have affected the local people’s confidence in the possibility of real peace with Baku.
The Russians helped the Armenians as much as they could. In the same way that since 2020 Moscow’s forces have been involved in non-violent operations, humanitarian aid and demining work, now Russian soldiers are still helping the local population, ensuring that there are no abuses against citizens who peacefully decided to leave the former separatist republic. However, after this migratory flow ends and Azerbaijan definitively occupies Nagorno-Karabakh entirely, it is possible that the Russian presence in the region will become meaningless, which is why the possibility of early ending the mission is being discussed.
For the Russians, the strategic sense of keeping troops in Nagorno-Karabakh appears to be running out. With Armenian consent to Baku’s control over the region, the situation of military conflict is, at least for now, over, and therefore there is not a need for a peacekeeping mission. Furthermore, with the migration of almost the entire Armenian population, concerns about possible abuse and ethnic cleansing also diminish.
On the other hand, an argument to promote the continuity of the mission is Russia’s own geopolitical interest in seeking stability in the Caucasus. Having troops in neighboring countries is usual strategy to control regional crises. Also, it is possible that with the presence of peacekeeping forces the sides will be constrained not to resume hostilities, which will reduce instability in the Russian strategic environment. However, for this stabilization to happen, Russia would have to significantly expand its number of troops in the mission, which will certainly be disapproved by all sides.
At the same time, it may be interesting for Russia to focus on other regions. Given the Azerbaijani victory in Artsakh and the implausibility of new fighting in the near future, perhaps the most interesting thing for Russia is to concentrate its efforts on more vulnerable regions, such as Georgia – a country in the Caucasus that many experts believe will be NATO’s “next target“. With Azerbaijan, which is a Turkish proxy, gaining territorial advances, and with Armenia moving closer to the US and EU, it then seems interesting for the Russians to seek to secure positions where there is still less direct NATO influence.
Since March, Georgia has been experiencing a turbulent political situation. At the time, there was an attempt at regime change encouraged by the French-born pro-NATO president Salome Zurabishvili against Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili and other parliamentarians due to the approval of a law restricting the presence of foreign NGOs in the country. The protests were publicly supported by Ukrainian neo-Nazi President Vladimir Zelensky and in the protests it was possible to see ultranationalist activists chanting fascist songs and anti-Russian slogans.
Over time, the protests decreased, and the color revolution seemed to have failed, but recently Georgian intelligence revealed data that points to the existence of a conspiracy to carry out a coup d’état in the country. The move is reportedly being led by pro-NATO Georgian politicians and agents, including former president Mikheil Saakashvili. Considering that the Georgian government has resisted NATO pressure to launch military efforts against Abkhazia and South Ossetia, opening a new anti-Russian flank, the West appears willing to change the regime as quickly as possible.
This shows how there is currently a project by Western powers to tighten the siege on Russia across the Caucasus. With Armenia and Azerbaijan becoming NATO occupation zones, the Western focus from now on will be on Georgia, so Moscow will certainly strive to avoid losing more space in its own strategic environment. Perhaps these efforts will involve reducing the presence of troops in other regions to boost military support for the Abkhazia, Ossetia separatist republics.
Regardless of what is decided about the Russian peacekeepers, it appears that it will be done through a deal of common interest for Russia and Azerbaijan. The Armenians have excluded themselves from dialogue with Russia and relations only tend to get worse. It seems to be a matter of time for Yerevan to request withdrawal from the CSTO and the end of the Russian military base on its territory. Moscow did its best to help the Armenians, but the pro-Western turn of recent years has reversed a historic friendly relationship between both countries.
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they wanted it. let them eat it and get a good taste of it
it’s doubtful armenia will exist for very long as a sovereign state. azerbaijan already demanded $10 billion as compensation or they will take more territory.
armenia also has the largest us embassy in the world.
the third rome let erdog aliev murder and displace those they were supposed to protect.
it does not matter that the us managed to get a spy into the position of armenian president.
they can go the orthodox world has understood that putin is nearer to the islamists then
to orthodox christians. and no west rome (washington and/or brussels) is not supposed to help eastern christians as they see them as heretics.
nothing orthodox about coptic katolicks,lets get this straight!
lol moderating comments now, you guys are just as evil as the western diktators. same stuff, different hat.
the world goes more globalt!
oh no well let’s let the golden horde swallow them whole, then. dolt.
the egyptians are kopts not the armenians. the armenians are one of the oldest orthodox christians …
stupid russia must stage coups to overthrow the governments of georgia, armenia and azerbajan and install pro russian – pro chinese puppets using the emigres of each country in russia. they have shown they can’t govern themselves. then make sure these new puppet regimes have as little corruption as possible and are run so the people of each country will benefit and be happy.
bbbut russia was never colonial, just never ask one of their neighbours. putin selling out christian nations again. morality invented on the fly. in the west we should just get out of this schizophrenic mess.
if russia doesn’t do this the racist supremacist global jewish askhenazi satanic slave empire dictatorship will conquer these countries and they will station ussa zio nukes aimed at russia and china and or have them attack russia as they did with ukraine. then russia and china must make it clear to the rest of the cental asian stans that if they keep the zio empire out they can remain independent, if not, there will be regime change.
azerbaijan has been armed by russia and israel old chap. sorry to break the news. the west might well be using armenia as a puppet but ru has done little to stop the bloodshed.
le vrai enjeu est le couloir turc entre l’atlantique et la mongolie.