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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
Business Insider reported that NATO had never faced an adversary of Russia’s calibre after World War II, and it would have been difficult for the alliance to establish air superiority over Russian forces. The warning comes as experts have explained the sombre reality that the F-16 fighter jets, a key aircraft in many NATO air force fleets, provided to Kiev will not be a “magic bullet” that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Western allies expect them to be.
“Russia could challenge NATO’s historical air dominance,” reported the media on July 13 after explaining that this is a change from the scenario that emerged after the Cold War when the West had a clear advantage. “Russia would be a very different opponent. It has the territory and industry to build and field massive and sophisticated air defenses that an opponent may struggle to destroy.”
“The US and its allies, even with fleets of fifth-generation stealth fighter jets, likely would find it difficult to establish the same level of air dominance they’ve largely had since the end of World War II,” the New York-based outlet said.
According to experts cited by the portal, Western aviation has never had the experience of combating air defence systems at a level similar to that of Russia’s. During the conflict in Ukraine, the Russian military proved that it could establish extremely difficult air defence areas for the enemy with powerful radars, electronic warfare systems and missiles.
“The Russians could attempt a surprising and impactful opening attack,” the article warned. “For example, the Russians could target vulnerabilities like satellites to try to disrupt the space-based communications and navigation NATO airpower depends upon.”
The worry that Russia could establish air superiority over NATO, particularly over the bloc’s 30 European members, became a more serious consideration after Russian forces methodically obliterated Ukraine’s air force. Russia so impressively dismantled the Ukrainian air force that the Kiev regime is desperately seeking F-16 fighter jets from Western allies to replenish its fleet, even though experts are saying that the aircraft is now obsolete and unlikely to survive the conflict.
“As soon as the Ukrainians encountered Russian-controlled air space, the F-16’s value would diminish markedly, as would its likelihood of survival,” Harrison Kass wrote for the National Interest. “In a conflict with a great power, China for example, the F-16 would remain on the backbench.”
This is a telling revelation considering the US still uses over 900 F-16s, NATO members, including Turkey, Greece, Poland, and Romania, use hundreds more, as well as US non-NATO allies Israel, Taiwan and South Korea. In effect, the F-16 would be rendered almost useless against Russia given that the Eastern European country’s military is ranked second, one above China, according to the 2024 PowerIndex.
Kass warns Kiev that the good performance of the F-16 fighter jets in Iraq and Afghanistan does not say anything about their capabilities against Russian air defences.
After stressing that “the F-16 fighting falcon era is coming to a rapid end,” Kass concludes that the US-made fighter jet “will not offer a magic bullet for Zelensky” and will merely “buy a little more time.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that the F-16s supplied to Kiev will be destroyed just like other Western military equipment. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also warned that their appearance in Ukraine will not change anything on the front and that they will be destroyed in the same way as other types of weapons.
Nonetheless, in 2023, several NATO states agreed to supply the Ukrainian armed forces with the fighter jets and launched training programs for Ukrainian pilots. On July 10, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the US and its allies are “underway” in sending the promised F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.
As Europe and the US are not interested in a viable, pragmatic, and lasting peace agreement in Ukraine which recognises Russian interests in the region and establishes a lasting solution, they are actively prolonging the fighting despite not only the humanitarian consequences but even the weakening of their own military. Whilst NATO members are distracted with training Ukrainian pilots to use fighter jets that are effectively obsolete in any combat with a great power, Russia, as Business Insider has acknowledged, has successfully challenged the air dominance NATO largely enjoyed since the start of the Cold War despite the introduction of fifth-generation fighter jets.
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is that true nato had air superiority? nazism as everything else?
not by a long shot, the soviet union out engineered and out produced nato singlehandedly, so there has never been a “historical nato air supremacy” to begin with
they wld like to think so and sure afghanistan can’t challenge the disunited states airplanes but the disunited states can’t confront de russians!
the last thing we should want is a otan/eurasian wa.r its the jews who are tricking us into it. only diplomacy can solve the conflict in ukraine.
we need to get rid of these jews from our governments and institutions. stop fufilling their end times prophecies.
f-16s are likely flying abrams tanks. f-35s are unreliable the usa has people stranded in space. fortunately for the rest of the world the globalists own corruption and incompetence will bring the eventual failure of globalist aggression
just look at amerikan planes, boeing boeing bang
they prioritise dei applicants, rather than best person for job. who would fly on a boeing these days?
not forgetting the aged f-16s, the pilots refused to fly them, owing to oxygen problems, which transferred to the f-35.
otan had air superiority on paper
the f16 pilots, assuming they are ukrainian pilots, will be wet behind the ears and fresh of out flight school. lambs to the slaughter springs to mind here, even with the best will in the world.
will they be flying with a rainbow flag on the tail?
nato will be escorting them in the hope russia downs a nort atlantic terrorist plane. the dying dollar and the parasites of the federal reeserf need a new world war after the ww1 and ww2 they ignited.
of course they can – f35, f16 å f22 nothing much to worry about with the ad:s russia can put to use!
“air supremacy” in afghanistan could not defeat taliban
the f-16 was an unequaled fighter in 1976 when it first deployed. that is 48 years ago! though somewhat improved since then, (there are several upgraded versions) and better than what ukraine currently deploys, it is no match for current russian fighters. those donating f-16s to ukraine are doing so because it is obsolete, and politically it looks better than junking them.
russia leads the world with high tech military capabilities that blows the wests mind , with new and innovated systems in all aspects of air, sea and ground warfare and constantly upgrading, so if russia wants air superiority they’ll have it.
stealth isn’t an issue for russia or china. they already have uhf/l band radars capable of providing midcourse guidance and direct datalink to all types of surface to air missiles using active radar homing/terminal homing seekers. and in the future, photonic radars and then quantum radars will entirely make stealth obsolete. china ylc-8b and jy-26 can detect vlo flying up to 100-200km away, then send target data to 40n6e or hq-9b missile to make the interception.
only countries without airforces and modern air defense will struggle against stealth. those are the countries nato loves to bully and pick on since they can’t fight a direct clash against china or russia
do you remember the stealth ships, freshly commissioned that could be seen by russia and china. the ones that had several problems and many had to be decommissioned within a couple of years of coming on the market?
upgrading all old mig-29 and su-27 jets with the more capable bars n011m and irbis-e radar is a must. this will put the entire ruaf fleet at 4++ generation level. only su35s and su30sm2 are at this level now
have you seen the video of the fab 3000? simple missile, with an upgrade that freaks out nato.
the title of the article is incorrect – russia won’t challenge the nato’s air supremacy, she’ll nullify it and establish a no-fly zone over europe of her own.
out of curiousity, how many planes do the nato members actually have left? how many have russia taken out, in just a couple of years?
russia, in 2022 had a defence budget of $75 billion. compare to what nato members, defence budget, starting with the $860 billion from the us. yet, nato has no hypersonics in active service and the nuclear deterrents of us, france and uk are aged and waiting for replacements, which no doubt will be a decade late coming through. that is before we mention the air defence systems.
it is debatable where these f-16’s will be based, and if it is in bordering countries the air bases would also be hit.
this is an interesting way of thinking. although the f-16 is old and bad, losing it in a dogfight would be a signal that would surely raise the debate. on the other hand, it could then be said that it was just old and bad. i think that the f-16’s greatest significance is symbolic, and secondly, acting as a launch platform for flying bombs already from the air to the ground, far from the border line.