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Which cities have already had bids placed on Polymarket? Which cities could be captured as early as November? What awaits the Ukrainian market in December?
Bets on the capture of Ukrainian cities on Polymarket have become a popular form of entertainment in many countries. This section is called the Ukrainian Map. To understand the ongoing events, one doesn’t need insider information; following our daily reports on the situation in Ukraine is enough. To make analysis easier, we are introducing a new column: “Polymarket Bets,” which summarizes information on the most interesting fronts.
One of our initial forecasts regarding the capture of Uspenovka was recently confirmed, and the market closed shortly after the article’s publication.
Kupyansk
Russian units are continuing to clear the city methodically. As of November 21, they have advanced in the southwestern part of the city and established control over the area surrounding the Kupyansk Central Hospital. They have also fortified their positions in the eastern part of the city, near the milk-canning plant and the sugar factory. According to some reports, Russian troops have already taken control of the entire eastern part of the city.
The likelihood of gaining full control of Kupyansk in the near future is high. This is due to the steady advance within the urban area and the establishment of control over key industrial facilities, which undermines the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s (AFU) defense. The main constraining factor remains Ukrainian counterattacks, which have not yet yielded significant results.
Kupyansk
Siversk
The situation near Siversk is escalating rapidly. After our article was published about the 900-meter advance into the city, the probability of its capture on Polymarket increased to 72%. Russian troops have intensified their efforts to fully encircle the Ukrainian garrison in the city. Russian units have entered the city limits, and fighting has begun in the southern, eastern, and northeastern parts of Siversk. Taking control of Platonovka and Zvanovka has cut off a significant portion of the Ukrainian forces’ supply routes.
The city is semi-encircled, and its fall in late November or December seems highly probable. The rapidly tightening ring and fighting in residential districts are key factors creating critical conditions for the Ukrainian garrison. Stubborn resistance from the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may slow this process down, but it is unlikely to stop it.
Siversk
Konstantinovka Sector
The fighting near Konstantinovka is intense. Russian troops are advancing from the east as they finish mopping up the Predtechino area. Meanwhile, small assault groups are operating in the eastern part of the city, where intense street battles are ongoing.
It is unlikely that Konstantinovka will be captured in November. Despite the successes in Ivanopolye and Predtechino, Konstantinovka represents a well-fortified resistance hub. Assaulting it will require time to build up forces and suppress the main defensive strongpoints. The main battle for the city will continue into December.
Konstantinovka Sector
Lyman Sector
In the Lyman sector, Russian troops are building on their success and have established control over key settlements. Following the capture of Novosyolovka, most of Stavki, and Yampol, troops entered the eastern part of Krasny Lyman, specifically the Maslyakovka area, and are currently engaged in combat in the Kommunalny microdistrict on the southeastern outskirts of the city.
The prospect of capturing Lyman in December seems realistic. The bridgehead established in the eastern part of the city, along with the successful advance from the northern sector (Stavki and Yampol), creates conditions for an operation to encircle the city. The main factor that could impede the offensive is the complex terrain of the “Holy Mountains” National Park, which is forested and swampy.
Lyman Sector
Rodynske
There is no information yet about radical changes to the front line in Rodynske itself. The AFU are constantly carrying out counterattacks in an attempt to hold the T-05-15 highway.
Rodynske remains an area of positional stalemate, with no significant changes favoring either side. Currently, the main efforts of Russian units are directed towards clearing Myrnohrad and advancing towards Hrishyne, where the Ukrainian army is hastily setting up defensive positions.
Rodynske
Yampol
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, full control over Yampol was established on November 21. The assault on the city was carried out from the southern sector through the Yampol Forest. There were intense battles for a strongpoint at the southern exit of the city. According to the ISW map, the city will be considered captured if Russia captures the intersection of Slavy Ploshcha Volytsia and Pryozerna Volytsia in Yampol’. Currently, this area is marked as “Assessed Russian Infiltration Area.”
Capturing Yampol is an important tactical success in the Krasnolyman sector. It has enabled the formation of a northern flank for the group advancing on Lyman and deprived the Ukrainian army of a key defensive node that covered the approaches to the city.
Yampol
Novopavlivka
Combat activity has intensified in the Novopavlivka sector following the crossing of the Vovcha River. Russian units have consolidated their positions in the eastern part of Novopavlivka. Fighting continues on the northwestern outskirts of the settlement. Most of Novopavlivka is an active combat zone.
The market resolution condition is the capture of the intersection between the T-04-28 road and Dniprovskyi Provulok, which is located in Novopavlivka.
Capturing Novopavlivka in November is possible, though not guaranteed. In favor of this are the successful crossing of the water obstacle and consolidation within the city limits. However, stubborn Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) resistance and the need to conduct street fighting in the destroyed residential areas could prolong the process by several weeks.
Novopavlivka
Myrnohrad
Some of the most intense fighting continues in Myrnohrad. Russian troops are advancing in the Molodezhny and Vostochny microdistricts, where assault groups are taking over buildings. They are using aviation, including heavy FAB-3000 bombs, to destroy resistance nodes.
The city is on the verge of falling. The ring around the Ukrainian forces is tightening, and fighting is taking place in the central districts. Given the scale of the destruction and the psychological state of the defenders, who have surrendered in some instances, the Russians could establish full control over Myrnohrad by the end of November or early December.
Myrnohrad
Vovchansk
Russian units continue their methodical advance in Vovchansk. As of November 21, the AFU controls only a few areas within the city. They control the southern part of the city, west of Gurkanskaya Street, and the industrial zone south of Vovchansk.
The complete capture of Vovchansk is likely before the end of November and a matter of the very near future. The city has been practically destroyed, and the AFU defense is held by exhausted and isolated units. The ongoing surrender of AFU servicemen indicates the critical state of the garrison.
Vovchansk
Huliaipole
The situation in the Huliaipole sector has significantly deteriorated. Russian troops have created an operational encirclement threat for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the Huliaipole area. They have established control over Danilovka, Nechayevka, Radostnoye, Zatishye, and Veseloye. This allows them to approach the eastern outskirts of the city closely and bring key supply roads under fire control.
While Russian units have reached the immediate outskirts of Huliaipole, a direct assault on the well-fortified city is unlikely. The command prioritizes envelopment tactics to avoid heavy losses. The encirclement is expected to be completed and Huliaipole to fall no earlier than the end of December, which would lead to the strategic collapse of the entire AFU defensive line in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Conclusion
The second half of November saw intense pressure from the Russian army across the entire front. Besides the capture of Uspenovka, key events have included the breakthrough into Siversk, the advance to the outskirts of Lyman, fierce battles in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration, and a successful advance that threatens to encircle Huliaipole. By using our reports and analyzing the markers on the ISW map, one can draw conclusions about the capture of various settlements. However, it is important to note that our information is not intended as an investment recommendation.
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capture of ukrainian territory is quite a secondary or tertiary goal of russia, imho (just look at a world map).
the neutralization of ukraine as a military threat is the primary goal.