Combat intensity in the Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, with Russian forces successfully pressing forward along several key fronts. The Ukrainian troops are showing increasing signs of strain, limited primarily to sporadic and largely ineffective counterattacks. The Donbass region remains the critical center of operations, with Russian military maintaining initiative and pressure.
Situation in the sky
Russian forces have intensified their coordinated missile strikes, executing larger and more concentrated salvos effectively overwhelming Ukrainian air defense systems. Significant Ukrainian military positions and infrastructure have been successfully neutralized.
On July 11, the Russian MoD reported the interception and destruction of 155 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones overnight. In response to those provocations, Russian forces carried out precise strikes using Geran-2 UAVs against UAF (Ukrainian Armed Forces) positions near Mykolaiv, as well as in the Sumy Oblast and Kharkov city. Ukrainian military recruitment centers, critical to Kiev’s mobilization efforts, have also been effectively targeted.
Geran drone hitting the regional military recruitment center in Odessa (July 11th)
On July 12, Ukrainian artillery continued shelling territories formerly under their control, striking civilian infrastructure and resulting in civilian casualties. Notably, a residential building in the Kherson region was destroyed by UAF artillery fire.
Russian precision-guided strikes targeted western Ukraine. Hits were confirmed on critical infrastructure. Collateral effects from the secondary blast impacted non-military sites.
Ukraine’s military reports that Russian forces used 26 missiles of various types and 597 fixed-wing kamikaze drones in overnight strikes on targets within Ukraine.
According to available data, the primary targets of Russian strikes over the past 24 hours were the following military and industrial facilities:
- Kanatovo Air Base (Kirovograd region). Sources confirm at least one precision hit on the runway.
- Lviv aviation repair plant and Electron factory (Lviv region). Verification imagery indicates partial disruption of production due to strikes on workshop areas.
Electron factory
- Lutsk Repair Plant (Volyn region). Strikes targeted production halls and open storage areas.
- Chernivtsi International Airport. This marks the first Russian strike on this airport since the onset of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. The attack appears to be a precision strike based on pre-verified coordinates, likely aimed at degrading a key logistical airfield.
Situation on the fronts
In the Sumy direction, Russian troops launched effective offensives near Ryzhivka and Bezsalivka, countering Ukrainian counterattack attempts near Alekseevka, Yunakovka and Kindrativka. Despite minor disruptions by the UAF, additional Russian reinforcements are being deployed to secure positions around Andriivka and Oleksiivka. Russians advanced in the Miropolye area and have been forced to relinquish previously held positions in Kondrativka.
In the Tetkino area, Ukrainian military maintains defensive postures while carrying out frequent attacks with small tactical units.
UAV’s: the growing ineffectiveness of passive camouflage alone (Sumy area)
In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces initiated approximately 40 assaults, steadily weakening Ukrainian defenses and gradually advancing. The RAF (Russian Armed Forces) entered Fedorovka, advanced and occupied most of Novotoretskoye. There is fighting for Boykivka. Notable progress has been recorded northwest of Toretsk toward Kostyantynivka, with successful advances near Yablunivka, Katerynivka, Rusyn Yar, and Popiv Yar.
The UAF is fiercely defending Muravka, a linchpin of the Dnipro front, as Russian artillery continues to pound the area, achieving little progress. Kiev’s options for counterattacks, however, remain severely limited.
In the Zaporizhzhia direction, neither side has prioritized this front due to the open and difficult terrain hindering large-scale maneuvers. Nonetheless, Russian forces are gradually securing control over smaller settlements.
The RAF assault units advanced northwest of Velyka Novosilka near Shevchenko and Vilne Pole, simultaneously pushing toward Voskresenka and Maliivka. Additional clashes occurred west of Velyka Novosilka near Novosilka and Zelene Pole. The heaviest fighting is concentrated around Kamenske and Plavni, where Russian forces are effectively employing high-explosive aerial bombs amid significant Ukrainian UAV reconnaissance activity.
Political Developments
Global interest heightened following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent remarks expressing disappointment in Russia. Trump’s ambiguous comments suggesting imminent developments have generated speculation, with further details anticipated in his July 14 announcement.
International diplomatic efforts are increasingly visible, notably discussions in Rome about establishing a multinational rapid deployment headquarters in Paris for post-ceasefire Ukraine. Participation by a U.S. delegation, including Trump’s envoy Keith Kellogg and senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, highlights ongoing Western attempts to influence Ukraine’s post-conflict structure, despite assurances that U.S. troops will not be directly deployed.
Domestic Security Challenges
Ukrainian society remains shaken following the recent assassination of a senior intelligence officer in Kiev, reportedly responsible for drone strikes targeting Russian airfields. The incident underscores Russia’s effective operational reach and capacity to neutralize threats within Ukrainian territory.
Moment of the elimination of a colonel from Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), who specialized in sabotage operations in Russia
Given Russia’s ongoing military advances and sustained operational pressure, the UAF’s ability to mount a meaningful strategic response is increasingly doubtful. Continued Russian momentum is highly likely, with the conflict poised for further developments favoring Russian operational objective.
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