After the initial success based on massive usage of VBIEDs and a lack of support by the Russian Aerospace Forces (President Vladimir Putin declined the general staff’s request to deliver air strikes in Aleppo area), the Jaish al-Fatah militant coalition, led by Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian Al-Qaeda branch) stalled in the trench warfare in non-populated urban areas of western Aleppo (as SF forecasted earlier – here and here).
This allowed the Syrian military to deploy reinforcements to the area despite Fatah al-Sham’s attempt to cut off the the Ithriyah-Aleppo Highway which is the only government supply line to Aleppo city. The main part of the deployed reinforcements was members of the elite branch of the Syrian army – Tiger Force. The Tiger Forces’ commander, Major General Suheil Al Hassan, also arrived the city to coordinate military operations against the terrorists.
By October 31 morning, Al Hassan–led forces, supported by the Syrian Air Force:
- have fully secured on the Minyan area and repelled Jaish al-Fatah’s attempts to counter-attack there
- have repelled the militants’ attack on the 3000 Apartment Project;
- have retaken the al-Assad Neighborhood;
- have made a series of counter-attacks in the 1070 Apartment Project. Nonetheless, no notable results have been achieved there.
Click to see the full-size map
Scoring up the developments of recent days, it’s easy to conclude that Jabhat Fatah al-Sham and its allies have failed to achieve their tactical goals – to set a foothold for an advance on the Al-Assad Military Academy. The control of the Al-Assad Military Academy, located at a strategic hill, would allow theal-Qaeda led forces to dominate in the area of western Aleppo. However, the militants have failed to do this.
the Al-Assad Military Academy
According to pro-government sources, Jaish al-Fatah has lost up to 1,500 fighters since the start of the offensive to break the Aleppo siege. This number is theoretically possible, but can be hardly confirmed by evidences on the ground. More neutral sources say that the militants have lost over 120 fighters, about 20 vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) and up to 30 units of military equipment and artillery.
Meanwhile, pro-‘opposition’ sources increased the propaganda campaign, blaiming the Syrian government for usage of a wide range of ‘non-Syrian’ militia groups (Hezbollah and others) during the battle for Aleppo. However, they forgot to mention that a significant part of ‘opposition’ fighters is foreign mercenaries.
Recently, media activists collected reports of the pro-Western and pro-‘opposition’ monitor, the Syrian Observatory For Human Rights, describing the numbers of victims in clashes between September 19, 2016 and October 19, 2016.
So, even according to the pro-western monitor says, 57% of the “rebel” victims were foreigners. In turn, only 7% fighters of the Assad government were foreigners.
The same situation was observed in Libya when Western-backed terrorits were overthrowing the Gaddafi government. Thus, it’s pretty clear that the West’s states implement a mechanizm of involving foreign terrorists and mercenearies every time when they need to support a ‘democratic rebellion’ somewhere.
The Russian Tu-214R electronic surveillance aircraft was also observed in western Aleppo. This indicates that the Russian military continues to provide support to the Syrian government forces even while the Russian Aerospace Forces don’t deliver air strikes on militant targets.
The government forces were clashing with Jaish al-Fatah militants in the 1070 Housing Project on October 30
The army and its allies were advancing on Jaish al-Fatah in the al-Assad Neighborhood on October 30
All lies being propagated by fake data
Dear friend, as an expert, you are free to tell us what is really going on in Aleppo.
It seems Putin’s decision for some reason was to let the SAA fight on their own and gain some ‘ownership’ of the battle according to another comment.
Then again time is of the essence, the longer this war drags on, the longer it takes for Syria to begin the inevitable long road to recovery. And it will be a tough one with destruction of priceless treasures to mourning the dead to crazed PTSD ridden soldiers.
The terrorists and their backers can’t seem to die fast enough.
Stick to real state sales now that the market is flat !! You seem to be an expert at loosing money !!
A number of 1200 dead is indeed to high but casualties is indeed possible. Anyone not being able to fight anymore is fine by Syria’s military forces. The intense fighting has been going on for quite a while…
Usually the pro-militant sites are full of executions and propaganda videos but they are very quiet. There is more merit to the point that the Syrian military has successfully countered the advance of the militants. Well… Time will tell.
The indications are that SouthFront’s predictions made at the onset of
the offensive have proved correct. I think a lot of credit is dew to
them for their accurate insight.
I like how this site analyzes military situations. Not many like this around the web
So why is the idiot Putin stopping the Russian Air Force from delivering strikes against militant targets? Is any more evidence needed that this man is a loser?
If the SAA and co can win these battles without Russian front line air strikes then it serves as a morale boost to government forces which would in turn help with later battles. From the militant point of view, it shows the SAA don’t need the Russians to win their battles for them anymore, this is catastrophic news.
As it stands the militant offensive appears to be finished, the SAA lines have held in the south and an offensive in the north is unlikely to produce results given how the pocket as shrunk, if they throw all their capable bodies at the SAA lines in the south they might achieve something but with the resulting force density they’d face unprecedented losses that would outweigh any gains on the ground.
Not to mention, it’s exclusively syrian military which is kicking the militants into dirt down there in West Ghouta. so, this means that it’s not just the SAA when it’s at it’s most massive concentration and led by Al-Hassan, but that in general this level of military capability is the new standard of Syrian army.
And THAT’S a reason why the terrorists should start sweating. Russian advisers did a good job retraining the syrian army. it shows.
I hope this is correct!
I don’t know what is going on in his deluded mind. Does he fear the propagandistic backlash of Russian airstrikes, this has been going on for ages, it won’t stop now. Does he think that the idea of humanitarian corridors work, riddled with shithadist snipers and mines? OR does he want to give time to muricans to separate non-existent moderates from terrorists? I cannot understand what he is thinking, and don’t agree with him rejecting his military’s assessment.
How misguided can he become by the Russian fifth column?
I think its fair to say that Putin has a better handle on what is going down than anyone posting to this forum. Personally I think he is trying to win hearts and minds in the International community by being honest and responsible and not being unnecesarily ruthless and careless of civilians. The Yankistanis and their feckless Eurotrash satraps are playing the “Russian agression” card and there is tehrefore an unavoidable political battle to be won.
The US ruling elite and the “leaders” of the HATO stoooges cannot be won over, but Putin can reach the leadership of the rest of the non-compromised world and therefore challenge NWO Imperial control in places like UN general assembly. Its all about perceptions leading to soft power enhancements.
Just STFU idiot…. Putin is a loser? Pot calling the kettle black…
“Pot calling the kettle black…”
Yeah, because you know me personally, know that I’m a “loser”, etc…. Imbecile!
Anyone with a non-addled brain (which excludes YOU) can see that Putin’s overly timid, scaredy-cat policy of caring more for the paid propaganda written in the Western corporate press than the imperatives of winning a war, is actually PROLONGING the war and suffering, ensuring that more people are killed, that the jihadis keep getting a new lease on life when they’re on the verge of defeat over and over again, etc. The man is turning down the requests of his OWN MILITARY to step up bombing, for Christ’s sake!
STFU… my advice still stands.
“…lack of support by the Russian Aerospace Forces”
Obviously, Russian air support was not needed.
The fact that both Russian and Syrian air attacks around Aleppo have not occurred for some two weeks at Russia’s and Syria’s own initiative is political. The lack of “indiscriminate” bombing of civilians in east Aleppo has:
1) removed the near hysterical story-line in the US press of how terrible Putin is, that began to divert attention of the US elections from other issues like Hillary’s emails etc.
2) changed the whole tone of UN condemnation. (When was the last time the UN hinted at “war crimes” towards the anti-Assad forces?
3) will strengthen Russia and Syria’s positions in any upcoming political discussions of final resolutions to the 5 year war. The west’s main line of logic for supporting their regime change is President al-Assad has bombed and killed his own citizens. Irrespective of what happened in the initial uprising in 2011, it’s obvious that President al-Assad now gets that the government is based on the support of the governed and that bombing your own people is counterproductive. The policy of national reconciliation within the existing borders of the sovereign nation of Syria is the best way forward.
Putin and al-Assad are dealing with the needed strategies to ensure the continuation of Syria and not just the tactics of a single battle. Putin has said they reserved the right to change the pause in bombing at any time if they felt it was needed. That need is not there currently.
well, it’s easy to say now that the support was “obviously” not needed. but when i remember the comment section a few days ago, more than a few guys were breaking a sweat and frantically asking why the russians aren’t bombing. so, unless you were REALLY paying attention that the attacking forces were well below numbers and quality of those which broke the siege last time (which, truth be told, South Front did not explicitly explain, or at least i didn’t catch it), there was reason to be nervous.
I understand and don’t want to come across as some “arm-chair quarterback”. Everyone knew the attack was coming long before it started and it was no secret where it most likely would occur. Syria and it allied forces kept working on the 1070 buildings but more importantly the high areas just to the south, which they secured days before the main attack. If you look at today’s video of the Syrian army along with Hezbollah on AMN showing the artillery fire poured into the 1070 complex. To me it shows the Syrians were prepared and the combined decision to continue the pause in bombing around east Aleppo was justified. There is enough artillery firepower in the area that while aerial bombardment would make it easier, the rebel forces can not raise their heads much less continue on east towards the Academies.
It’s strategy versus tactics and the Russians and Syrians are performing well to ensure a positive outcome (at least from their perspectives) to this war.
While we the internet observers may not know strength of the rebel attackers, I’m sure the Russians and Syrians did.
I’ve asked myself what is the best way to crush the opposition so that they will accept a political conclusion to this craziness. At this point it seems like the best way is to get them to bring forward as much of their forces, both personnel and equipment, so you can destroy them both. I see the current battle following this strategy.
Almost as important is to beat Al-Qaeda at the war of information/world public opinion. Something that up till now Al-Qaeda has been easily winning. The debunking of the White Knight’s propaganda on Syrian/Russian indiscriminate bombing of the humanitarian relief convoy and the recent school episode, along with the pause in bombing of east Aleppo (which isn’t needed as they have suspended most all operations inside east Aleppo) has gone a long way to take that part of the war away from the rebels.
Finally, Putin stated he reserved the right to restart the bombing if deemed necessary. I believe that if the rebels were looking to truly breach the siege of east Aleppo the bombing would restart with a vengeance.
The Syrians need to win the war, not just the battle. It requires taking some risks.
Yes, you’re totally right.
“it’s easy to think that terrorists are simply flowing unlimited over the
border, and no matter how much you kill, it’s never enough.”
I read somewhere that the CIA felt that at the peak of foreign recruitment (2014-2015…just before the Russian intervened) there were 2,000 foreign jihadists per month coming across the borders. At the beginning of the year it was down to 200 or less per month. I would think that since August even less are coming across as it’s beginning to look like a lost cause from a jihadist perspective.