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On September 14, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies fully secured the strategic Baghiliyah area northwest of Deir Ezzor city after capturing the missiles base, the Hajjanah regiment, the radio transmitter station, the al-Jazeera university, the Saiqa Camp and the arms depots around Baghiliyah, according to the Hezbollah media wing in Syria.
Then government forces developed momentum in the direction of Ayyash where they engaged ISIS in an intense fighting using a superiority in the fire power.
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The Hezbollah media wing also announced that government troops captured the Nishan oil field, the Nishan gas station and the water pumping station east of Thurdah mount number 3. With this advance Thurdah mountains and the area west of Deir Ezzor Airport was secured and the SAA establish a full control over it.
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The SAA also advanced southeast of Deir Ezzor city and captured the Dhamn base and al-Kurum hill. After the latest advance in the southwestern Dier Ezzor countryside, the SAA is now only 35km away from al-Mayadeen city, one of the biggest ISIS strongholds in the Euphrates River Valley.
The SAA could try to cross the Euphrates River, and then eliminate ISIS pocket in the northwestern Deir Ezzor countryside before launching the final attack on ISIS in al-Mayadin and al-Bukamal cities. The oil fields located on the eastern bank of Euphrates also attract attention of the Syrian military.
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Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defense of Russia released videos of the cruise missile strike on headquarters and ammo depots of ISIS near al-Mayadin city.
The NDF media wing has released photos showing government troops at a road to al-Mayadeen located southeast of Deir Ezzor city:
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SAA is doing nice job, but still I cannot understand the tactics or strategy behind the northwestern advance instead of the southeastern advance. Mayadin is southeast, the omar oil fields too.
Mayadin is 35kms,yes, but if one does not advance, the number of kms is irrelevant.
On the other hand, for the SDF the Omar oilfields are 30 to 35 kms too, but they do not have to take a larger fortified city and they do not have to cross a river.
I just do not understand the tactics, I am too simple minded I think.
To end on an optimistic note, hopefully IS will defeated asap by both forces without any clashes between the two of them. Night.
It’s quite simple actually. In order to have full potential to push south, they are fully securing every other front. This will reduce atriction warfare and produce sinergy
On itself agreed.
However. reading both SF articles and the frenzied tone of Assadists commenting here, it was the no 1 priority to cut off the SDF and cross the river.
I have commented earlier that crossing the river ment a long time deployment of troops that could not be withdrawn without collapse of that whole sector. Not to mention the rumored de-escalation line along the river.
SAA will have, for the time being, its hands full clearing the south-west side of the river, but maybe some of those reported 70k foreigners fighting along the SAA will help them out.
You simply answered your own question on your paragraph 3- …I have commented earlier….. When they do cross, it has to be constant and permanent move without fear that the Kurds have crossed over south of the Euphrates because of some free ‘unliberated by the SAA areas’. That’s why SAA is liberating west and east of Deir Ez-Zur, especially west, past the point that the Kurds could potentially cross the Euphrates.
My reasoning does not have to be that of others here.
As far as the SDF crossing the river to the south west side, that is hardly feasable and unlikely too as they stated to go for “their” side of the river. In case SAA does not keep up in both their drives towards the Iraqi border, they might try a crossing near Bu Kamal, but even that is, imo, highly doubtful.
There is no “their” side. It’s Syria. As for the SAA crossing the river or not, a) they might already have some deal with the SDF. b) if they don’t, by crossing the river there is a high risk that hell will brake loose, incl. coalition forces bombing SAA and Russia having to iron things out – might well be that Russia said “njet” to crossing. After all, teh Kurds cannot just “make” a country of their own and only because they have their fighters in an area doesn’t mean the local population has nothing to say. There will have to be a lot of diplomatic talks once Syria has been cleared of ISIS (and other terrorist factions). I do think the Kurds deserve a country of their own, but they can’t just take what they like. It’s not uninhabited land – there are people living there. Syrians most of all.
More or less my take on the matter.
Agree with a lot of your observations. Kurds wanting their own country is a matter that I think still requires pieces of puzzle to fall into place if it is to be actually realized. However, I believe the odds of that happening are still low or even non existent. Reason being all neighboring countries Turkey, Iraq, Iran will not accept such an outcome.case in point Iraq’s recent Parliaments vote to use military force against the Referendum. I suspect some sort of a deal where Syria’s territorial integrity remains intact, with the Syrian Government maintaining control of borders and with the Kurds having some sort of autonomy in their Region. As far as crossing the Euphrates, perhaps SAA is waiting for the forces from T3 area in the south to catch up with them as the move east along the river. Once entire eastern portion of Euphrates is secure they can then cross and not have to worry about taking fire along their flank.. anyways, anyone notice how quite the T3 front area has been? No movement or new from the area in over a month.
You mean the T2 area along the border , they were waiting for the Iraqis to secure their side so they don’t flank their assault from that front.
They rest at T2 until iraqi forces are near Al Qaim. Then they will start their offense towards Al Bukamal. The al Bukamal/al Qaim area is very well fortified by ISIS and a very high percentage of the civilians are on their side. That makes it difficult to march in with “some ” soldiers and only from one direction. A doubled attack is needed to win.
Yes ,they do have strong support among the Iraqi side , the US did a good job of making them mad of which the US had to hide in their base and eventually leave that region. Abu Kamal will be infested with these Iraqi fighters they should be in the thousands, why the US is terrified of them.
Manie, they rest at T2 until iraqi forces are near Al Qaim. Then they will
start their offense towards Al Bukamal. The al Bukamal/al Qaim area is
very well fortified by ISIS and a very high percentage of the civilians
are on their side. That makes it difficult to march in with “some ”
soldiers and only from one direction. A doubled attack is needed to win.
Their is no deal it is based on who gets their first , never listen to that idiot even the US is not going to do anything. The problem it would be a bad P.R. move and would lose any support they have. They are doomed in their attempt anyways Kurds to be honest don’t deserve a country , they need to be either Turks ,Syrians or Iraqis. Sectarian Kurds is just not a good idea they barely tolerate women in politics and any other position. The US military runs the Raqqa Operation and the Arabs as they are all male leadership, lot of ISIS members in it.
There is no ‘theirs’ here. Didn’t the Kurds cross and captured Tabqah along with a vast territory outside Tabqah proper? If SAA doesn’t cross the river and at least have a foothold on the North of Euphrates and allow the Euphrates to form a potential future natural boundary, it’s the end of it for them. It will be very difficult for them to start a successful attack on the Kurds from the Southern side (in case necessary in the future) and that will be it for them.
“I’ll just tell you that the plan is not to go into Deir Ezzor City, but there (are) plenty of ISIS fighters and resources and leaders that continue to have holdouts throughout the middle Euphrates River valley,” Dillon concluded.
It was initially believed the US Coalition would attempt to out-maneuver the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to the strategic city of Albukamal on the Iraqi border; however, this does not appear to be an option for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Wonder how many foreign fighters are with the SDF 60k or more that includes the ISIS fighters and Anarchy brigades from many Western and Arab countries!?
Realise that ISIS is almost trapped in a pocket northwest of Deir Ezzor. Going there first will simplify the situation, while giving the ISIS forces in the southeast two bad choices: doing nothing or going to move/attack in open terrain.
After that, more SAA troops will be available to redeploy anywhere else (against ISIS or FSA). They could then attack Mayadin from any direction.
So the SAA strategy makes perfect sense to me.
That pocket to the Northwest is going to left until later. The ISIS in that area are going to be looking for a way to escape. They are going to be heading toward the SDF-Kurd position East of Deir Ez-Zor. The Kurds are going nowhere. They are surrounded and taking big hits from dozens of ISIS mortar positions just yards away, with more ISIS on the way , coming from that pocket. The SDF-Kurd position could be wiped out. And that will teach them a big lesson not to try to sneak in and steal Syrian oil resources.
Well, if they get wiped out, it will indeed teach them a lesson. Unlikely though.
The US do not seem to be too keen in supplying the Kurds heavy armour. It is possibly because Erdogan would have gone ballistic . There is a ‘skills’issue of course but the US has had months to address this and have not. Essentially the Kurds are mobile infantry with US artillery and air support.
In any combat with the SAA and their allies, particularly Russia, the US forces would be in range of SAA artillery and vulnerable to Russian air superioty fighters and air defences.
The US of course has many air assets in theatre BUT how many could they ‘politically’ lose when the US public has no appetite for US body bags, especially when fighting in an ILLEGAL war that ‘ Was not meant to be like this’.
They will eventually pull back as ISIS has rescued a pocket of ISIS in Hasakah and are pushing from behind, there is real ISIS in this area. They are supported from Iraq and can sustain the manpower unlike the SDF.
Or the northwestern pocket gets cleaned and SAA keeps having issues at southern Raqqa.
They had no real issues they wanted to draw ISIS into a pocket is which they did, this looks bad as SDF is in a mortar crossfire, why they are being flanked by ISIS. Just a bad plan and some bad moves by the US they forget when they get close to ISIS home territory they enter enemy country, Al Qaim and Abu Kamal have a serious element ISIS there.
Mortar field did nothing when thy created multiple pockets in raqqa countryside there is barely anything habitable in the pocket on the east of the river mostly empty desert like with one oil field and a couple of tiny villages but on the west has plenty of villages and towns for ISIS to hide in so probably flee to west to fight SAA. I could see the pocket gone in a week on SDF side.
The East has the industrial zones, perfect territory for defense and offense. It would be brilliant of the Russians to advise the SAA to clean up the West side of the Euphrates first because ISIS will assume that they have time to strengthen the Eastern side of the river, which would include hammering the SDF . .
The US has pull back somewhat as they had a pocket of ISIS who refused the deal , they ended up being rescued by another group who flanked and attacked Hasakah. Thing is they had to hold up as they had scout reports of SAA near the Industrial zone before the US/SDF even got there. The Islands are in control of the SAA and Russians , they keep pushing them out of the region as they flee.
Al Qaim and Abu Kamal has the real heartland of ISIS even the US know this and are afraid of that region. The population has a high regard for ISIS since the US used to operate near Al Qaim , they ended up making the local population hate them to the point patrols were not safe. The US ended up leaving their base and headed east in Iraq, the region is known as hostile territory with 500,000 on the Iraq side and similar numbers in Syria but a less hostile region.
Maadan will be a trial since many ISIS were cutoff by the SAA’s move to DE leaving them possibly fortifying the region from attacks on both sides of the banks.
There is nothing but farmland between the Airport and al-Mayadin along the West bank of the river. The SAA will go through like a knife through butter.
Simple, they need another supply line, they are clearing the pocket along the river.
Right now the SDF is feeling what happens when you don’t secure the area, as they lose half of Hasakah they will understand this.
The move toward al-Mayadin is smart. It is 20 miles Southeast. The Omar oil field is on the other side of the river from al-Mayadin. The SAA could cross at any point within those 20 miles, and keep ISIS guessing as to where.
Here is a better map of the area.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b532189aed4d1ad7bbe907688e604bba834e62203921f4fc81e662308642e0b3.jpg
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The actions of ISIS and SDF are coordinated
50-50, not 100%.
That is correct, until they see a valuable oil field ready for the taking. Then the coordination level goes down to zero.
I predict that the SDF-Kurds are in jeopardy at their current position. We will soon find out how much coordination when they come begging to the SAA for artillery support from Tardah mountain, which the SAA just captured a few days ago, and now have a heavy fire base located.
I tell only humbly: each soldier who protected eir ez zour city, fallen or surviving, deserve one sculpture. The road between Palmya and DEZ city should be named Avenue of Heroes and the sculptures of heroes should flank from both side.
Love that idea . . .
Great idea
Solomon, a very interesting idea. And brig. gen. Issam Zahredinne and his son should welcome each visitor at the entrance of Deir Ezzor. It is their city now. Hopefully as many as could be will survive – to see the Ave of Heroes with their own eyes.
So is my assumption correct: cruise missile strike = target that Russia does not need to inform the US coalition about Western/Gulf/Israeli intelligence assets?
Russian special forces, Syrian special forces and Hezbollah special forces are calling those precise strikes in US/Allies illegal combatants have no expectations, so shouldn’t really expect any. They would have to sign on as Allies to Syria for that to happen,or they can be declared illegal combatants which makes all actions they carry out as illegal. The US will possibly have a choice recognize the international and UN resolutions while they face War crime charges which will be a guarantee.
Field Marshal Terra Cotta Woolpuller rubbish! What international and UN resolutions are directed specifically at the US? See for example http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/doc/2165 I defy the Field Marshal to name a UN resolution on Syria aimed at the US.
War Crimes adjudicated by the International Criminal Court are against individuals not against countries. So the Field Marshall is implying Obama and Trump will be charged with war crimes? Or does he once again misunderstand? Just because you want something or hope something comes true doesn’t “guarantee” it.
Obama needs to be charged with war crimes , the British are holding their PM responsible , Americans will do the same .
Good luck with that! “The International Criminal Court (“ICC”
or the “Court”) currently has jurisdiction over war crimes, crimes
against humanity and genocide, ……its jurisdiction over the crime of aggression has not yet been activated”
https://www.icc-cpi.int//Pages/item.aspx?name=160704-otp-stat
Chances of Obama being charged with war crimes are zero.
It may need to be crimes against humanity . However , you are likely right , it would not be the first time America has let us down . But you may be wrong !
The move towards Al mayadine and Abu kamal will be too slow due to ISIS strong hold but SAA move across Euphrates river towards As Suwar town could be faster. Look at map.
Crossing the river at what point?
The Euphrates is almost completely dry now so you can walk across. Crossing it now is a mud not a water issue.
https://youtu.be/o3AwJ15NdW0 Posted on reddit an hour ago…hardly “completely dry”
How deep is it? It looks very shallow to me. See the left side of the picture, what appears to be silt from the bomb spreading out into the river. It looks so shallow there that it is breaking the surface of the water. Lots of places in these videos show the river has receded quite a bit.