Orekhov’s Clock Is Ticking: Ukraine’s Offensive May Delay, But Not Stop, The Inevitable

On the night of April 15, Russian forces launched massive strikes on Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Cherkasy. The port area of Izmail in the Odesa region was attacked. Strikes on this active port and the merchant fleet near it have become systematic. In Sumy, fires and loud explosions were reported following an attack on the ‘Khimprom’ enterprise.

In the Sumy region village of Krasnopolye, strikes by Russian combat aircraft destroyed the temporary deployment site of the 119th Territorial Defense Brigade and the UAV command post of the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade in the village of Pavlovka.

Oleg Sinehubov, the head of the Kharkiv region, stated that the Russian Aerospace Forces hit the Pechenizhskoye Reservoir dam—the largest in the region—with six aerial bombs. If the dam is damaged, the resulting flood will inundate significant areas to the south. Additionally, the Seversky Donets River, which serves as a major water barrier for Russian troops advancing from the Volchansk area, will run dry.

On the Zaporizhzhia sector of the front, the Ukrainian command continues to launch attacks on Russian positions. An offensive is underway along the Stepnogorsk–Pavlovka line. There have been reports of isolated instances of small arms fire near Kamenskoye. Ukrainian forces are steadily breaking through the Russian units’ defenses, which have been on the offensive in this area since last year. At this point, the Russian Armed Forces risk losing all the progress they have made advancing toward Zaporizhzhia.

The “Artan” special forces unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has been deployed for operations in Stepnogorsk. The enemy’s objective is to stabilize the front line. It is likely that other special forces units will be deployed in this area as well.

In line with recent years of the conflict, there is no clear front line in this sector. Ukrainian units are attempting to infiltrate deep into Russian defensive positions.

The Ukrainian command has made this sector of the front a priority and is continuing to increase its efforts there. However, if they expend too many troops and reserves on the offensive, they will be forced to fall back into a static defensive position.

The Ukrainian offensive poses a challenge to Russian forces in this sector. Kyiv’s actions may temporarily delay the operational encirclement of Orekhov. Nevertheless, the strategic situation will not change; only the timing of the city’s fall may be delayed.

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