File image.
The Russian military appears to be developing an offensive to the west of the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, into Dnepropetrovsk with Novopavlivka as the main target.
In recent days, the Tsentr [Center] Group of Forces resumed advance to the west of Pokrovsk, capturing Udachne, then entering the Western Mine Number 1 to the north of settlement. By October 9, Russian troops had reportedly begun a push from the area to the west of Udachne towards Dnepropetrovsk.
Gains were reported close to Molodetske, which is located just a few kilometers to the northeast of Novopavlivka. Russian troops are now reportedly battling Kiev forces in the outskirts of the settlement.
More gains were reported to the southwest of Novopavlivka, where the Vostok [East] Group of Forces had reportedly secured Filiya then crossed the Solena River. Russian troops could reach the outskirts of Novopavlivka within days, if Kiev forces failed to put on a fight.
It’s worth noting that the Vostok Group of Forces has been battling Ukrainian troops in the western outskirts of Ivanivka, further to the west of Novopavlivka, for weeks now.
In recent months, Kiev prioritized the defense of Pokrovsk and the Dobropillia salient to the northeast of it in Donetsk. The move slowed down the advance of the Tsentr Group of Forces for a while, but in recent days more gains were reported in both areas.
Even worse, the Vostok Group of Forces took advantage of the Kiev’s decision to reinforce Pokrovsk and the Dobropillia salient with all possible means, and pushed forward between Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye along the Yanchur River, putting Ukrainian defenses there on the brink of collapse.
The latest advances near Novopavlivka suggest that now both the Tsentr and Vostok group of forces are preparing to develop an offensive towards the settlement to further capitalize on the Ukrainian decision to defend Pokrovsk and the Dobropillia salient at all costs.
The capture of Novopavlivka would threaten Ukrainian supply lines on both sides, in Pokrovsk and the Dobropillia, as well as along the Yanchur River between Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye. A breakthrough to the north of the settlement would be even more catastrophic for Kiev forces.
Ukraine could send some reinforcements to prop up its defenses around Novopavlivka. However, it will not likely abandon its strategy to prioritize the hopeless defense of Pokrovsk and the Dobropillia salient as these areas continue to get the most attention from the media.
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