Negotiations On Ukraine: Key Developments And Stumbling Blocks

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The ongoing negotiations regarding the conflict in Ukraine continue to unfold amid shifting positions, diplomatic tensions, and competing proposals. Kyiv’s leader Zelensky has stated that the Ukrainian delegation, set to meet with U.S. and European representatives in London, is authorized to conclude a full or partial ceasefire, while reports indicate that Ukraine intends to ignore U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed “peace plan,” focusing instead on a 30-day cessation of hostilities.

The U.S. delegation in London will be led by National Security Advisor Keith Kellogg, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Kurt Volker, refused to attend the meeting. Meanwhile, the White House cautiously noted that negotiations are ongoing and moving in a positive direction. However, the level of participation has been downgraded, raising concerns about the meeting’s effectiveness. Europe and Kiev followed the US decision, postponing the meeting of the foreign ministers of Britain, France, Germany and Ukraine. They have nothing left to discuss without Washington.

Reports suggest that the U.S. has prepared its “final offer,” warning that if neither side accepts it, Washington may allegedly withdraw from the negotiations. The proposed terms reportedly include de jure recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, de facto Russian control over parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, and Ukraine’s renunciation of NATO membership. In exchange, the U.S. would lift sanctions imposed since 2014 and explore energy and industrial cooperation with Russia. For Ukraine, the plan offers security guarantees from non-U.S. partners, a Russian withdrawal from parts of Kharkiv region, free navigation along the Dnieper River, and reconstruction aid.

However, this reported proposal faces significant hurdles. Moscow has constitutionally incorporated the four Ukrainian regions into Russia, making their status non-negotiable. Critics argue that the U.S. plan either misunderstands or deliberately ignores Russia’s legal framework, framing it as a tactical move to shift blame if rejected. Meanwhile, Zelensky has firmly rejected recognizing Crimea as Russian or abandoning NATO aspirations, calling such demands unconstitutional. European leaders, including EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, have also dismissed the idea of recognizing Crimea as Russian, criticizing Washington for not applying sufficient pressure on Moscow.

Meanwhile, Trump’s envoy, Volker, is expected to travel to Russia later this week, carrying the outcomes of the London talks. The Kremlin has denied knowledge of Trump’s peace plan but emphasized that any European counter proposals far from the initial U.S.-Russia terms could collapse the negotiations entirely.

As discussions continue, the fundamental divide remains: Ukraine and its Western allies refuse to legitimize Russia’s territorial gains, while Moscow demands recognition of its expanded borders. With both sides entrenched in their positions, the path to a sustainable agreement remains uncertain, leaving the conflict poised between fragile diplomacy and prolonged hostilities.

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