Mounting Pressure and Propaganda: Heavy Battle for Kupyansk

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The strategic town of Kupyansk in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region is facing a critical moment. After a period of relative stalemate, Russian forces have massed significant reserves and are intensifying pressure, leading Ukrainian officials to publicly confirm a sharp deterioration in their defensive positions.

The growing threat was starkly outlined by Ukrainian officer Andriy Tkachuk, who stated, “At a time when everyone was shouting about Sumy, the Russians focused their attention on Kupyansk. And now there is a huge threat over Kupyansk.” This admission underscores the severity of the situation as Russian assaults grind down Ukrainian infantry in the town’s outskirts.

The narrative from Moscow, however, paints a far more advanced picture. Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov recently claimed that units of the West group of forces had “almost completely blockaded Kupyansk and liberated about half of its territory.” This bold declaration was seemingly supported by footage soon shared online showing a Russian flag flying from the town’s television tower. However, the flag was likely dropped by an UAV to support the victorious claims, but the reality of Russian advance is a little different.

In reality, the situation on the ground is more complex and less favorable for Russian forces than official reports suggest. Contrary to claims of controlling half the city, Russian units have so far managed to consolidate positions only on its northern outskirts. Instead of storming the town, the main effort appears to be a bypassing maneuver towards the village of Sobolivka, west of Kupyansk, where fierce fighting is currently raging and Ukrainian forces are actively counterattacking.

Russian strikes:

The primary strategic fear for Ukrainian command is a potential Russian breakthrough towards the crucial Chuhuiv-Melove highway, southwest of Kupyansk. Securing this road would be a significant blow to Ukrainian defense. To achieve this, Russian forces would first need to clear the area around Sobilivka and accumulate sufficient reserves for a further push. An alternative, equally dangerous route for Ukraine would be an advance near Nechvolodivka, threatening to encircle Kupyansk from the south.

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Indeed, the situation is increasingly precarious for the Ukrainian military. Kupyansk has effectively lost its status as a solid defensive hub and has devolved into a volatile grey zone. Ukrainian forces, previously comprising up to 11 brigades including the more capable 14th, 30th, and 43rd Mechanized Brigades, are stretched thin. The recent Russian advance from the Dvorichna bridgehead forced the commitment of the 116th Mechanized Brigade, but parts of it were later urgently redeployed to stem the Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk. The main burden of defense now falls on the 241st Territorial Defense Brigade, whose activity has waned after a series of counterattacks due to significant losses. A critical issue plaguing Ukrainian units, particularly Territorial Defense brigades, is a drastic drop in personnel quality. New recruits mobilized in June and July reportedly receive insufficient training, severely reducing the combat effectiveness of these formations across the front, not just near Kupyansk.

For now, a direct assault on Kupyansk’s urban center does not appear to be Russia’s immediate goal. Whether this is due to the inherent difficulties of urban combat or a strategic decision to bypass and isolate the town will likely become clear in the coming weeks as the battle for its approaches continues to intensify.

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